Notre Dame and 3 other CFB teams that won’t reach win projections in 2026
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The college football season is right around the corner. Fall camps have kicked off, and a week in, and coaches are trying to figure out who their best players are to make a run at the College Football Playoff.
I recently wrote about four teams that would exceed their win projections this season, but there is always a flip side to that, and that’s talking about teams that are going to fail to reach those projections.
Using FanDuel‘s win over/under, here are four teams that you shouldn’t bet on to reach those projections.
MORE: 4 dark horse candidates who could win the Heisman Trophy in 2026
Notre Dame, 11.5 wins
There is a lot of hype surrounding Notre Dame this season, despite the Irish failing to reach the CFP a year ago. Notre Dame lost its first two games of the season last year to Miami and Texas A&M, and the rest was history.
However, entering 2026, Notre Dame is ranked among the best and its over/under is a whopping 11.5 wins. That means the Irish would have to go undefeated, winning all 12 regular-season games to accomplish that.
Notre Dame is at BYU with home games against Miami and SMU. All three of those games could result in a loss if CJ Carr doesn’t have his best game.
Florida, 7.5 wins
Another year, more Florida Gators hope. Things didn’t go well under Billy Napier and now the fanbase is hopeful Jon Sumrall can turn the script, but entering the season, Florida has the No. 7 strength of schedule in the country.
The Gators would need eight wins to surpass their projection this season, and finding eight wins is hard on that schedule.
Even if UF finds a way to beat Auburn on the road, the Gators would still need to beat one of Ole Miss, Texas, Georgia or Oklahoma, while not slipping in any of their other winnable games.
Sumrall might get Florida back in contention, but it’s likely not going to be this year.
Indiana, 10.5 wins
After winning the national title, it’s obvious why pundits are high on the Hoosiers. Head coach Curt Cignetti has proven that he’s among the best coaches in the country and winning at a program like Indiana always felt impossible — until it wasn’t.
Entering Year 3 in Bloomington, the Hoosiers should be good once again. However, it’s not like Indiana’s schedule is easy, and for it to win 11 games, IU can only lose once.
Indiana plays Ohio State, Michigan and USC this season, and the Hoosiers would need to find a way to win two of those games and not suffer any other losses. The talent is there, but IU retooled using the transfer portal, again. Can it pay off for the third year in a row?
Arizona State, 7.5 wins
Let me start off by saying I think Kenny Dillingham is an excellent head coach and one of the best in the Big 12. However, the Sun Devils could see some regression this season after losing Sam Leavitt to LSU, along with typical attrition.
ASU has the hardest schedule in the Big 12, and the Sun Devils’ success will depend on Kentucky transfer Cutter Boley or Michigan transfer Mikey Keene behind center.
Dillingham’s squad has to find a way to beat one of Texas A&M, Texas Tech, BYU, Oklahoma State or Arizona, without suffering any other losses.
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