Big 10 Pick 6: Coming up Roses

NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...

It was a frustrating 2-4 week ATS for me in Week 12. Both Illinois and USC won but failed to cover by the skin of their teeth. The Huskies did just the opposite. Back at Husky Stadium, they blew away Purdue by a comfortable margin beyond the spread. Will they be able to keep it up back on the road against UCLA this week?

As always, the odds posted are from SB Nation’s online betting partner Fan Duel. Check out the Fan Duel Sportsbook for more information. 

Washington @ UCLA (+10.5)

Quick: When was the last time the Huskies won a conference road game by more than this 10.5 point spread? They haven’t done it in the Big 10 (meaning they haven’t done it under Jedd Fisch) since their only road win in conference was 24-20 over Maryland this year. It wasn’t even in 2023, when the team went to the National Championship Game. They won by 10 at USC and 9 at Stanford. They also blew out current conference-mate Michigan State by 34, but that was not yet a conference game. No, the last 10.5 point conference road win was the 2022 Apple Cup, 51-33 over Cam Ward, almost exactly 3 years ago. 

A lot more goes into this game than just having to play on the road. Nico Iamalevea is still recovering from a concussion and is questionable to play on Saturday. UCLA’s offense has been better when they lead with the running game and pass off of that foundation. UW’s run defense has improved through the year but still has its flaws. There is also the matter of Demond Williams’ home/road splits. He averages 10.6 yards per attempt at home with 10/0 TD/Int. Away from the Greatest Setting, it’s 7.4 YPA and 7/5. He’s a young QB and he is still developing, so there’s time to grow. Playing against the 134th best defense in the country (by EPA) would be a great time to show that growth. 

Washington 27 – UCLA 20

Minnesota @ Northwestern (-3.5)

Northwestern performed better than I expected against Michigan last week. Their defense held up against an offense that should be more talented, largely by forcing four turnovers. The Wildcats have also developed enough of a rushing offense that they don’t need to win games 13-10. PJ Fleck deserves some credit for squeaking out enough wins against worse teams to get to bowl eligibility with a few weeks left. Their offense has been in the dumps lately, though.

Northwestern 24 – Minnesota 16

USC @ Oregon (-10)

USC might be the most properly-rated team in the country right now. At #15, they have won their home games, including top-25 wins over Michigan and Iowa. Their two losses are their two road games against ranked teams, Illinois and Notre Dame. They have played exactly to expectations. Oregon has surged defensively after their loss to Indiana. On offense, they are better running the ball than passing, though that’s probably the right way to attack USC. I trust Oregon to win this game, but I could see it ending up on either side of the 10-point spread. 

Oregon 33 – USC 24

Michigan St @ Iowa (-16.5)

Iowa is a lot better than Michigan St. The Hawkeye defense is truly elite- 5th in the country by EPA. The Spartans, while they have fought hard in every game, appear to be on track for a winless Big 10 season. The question is whether Iowa’s offense can beat a team with a heartbeat by more than 16.5 points. They did blow out Minnesota and Wisconsin earlier in the year, two teams who are no worse than Michigan St. Given Michigan State’s offensive woes, they likely don’t have to put up a huge number to cover, either. 

Iowa 35 – Michigan St 17

Nebraska @ Penn St (-8.5)

Strangely, the line for this game would probably have been right around this number if it was set before the season started. So much has changed in the interim- both teams are without their starting QBs and Penn St has reset its entire program. Overall, Matt Rhule and the Huskers still appear to be on an upward trajectory with seven wins and an outside shot at nine. Penn St was respectable against Ohio State, pushed Indiana to the limit, and comfortably beat Michigan St the last three times out. Does that mean they have rediscovered their identity? To some extent, yes, but not all the way back to being 9 points better than a solid bowl team. 

Penn St 23 – Nebraska 20

Illinois @ Wisconsin (+8)

For a half, it looked like UW had awakened something in the Badgers and they had turned a corner, down only 10-7 on the road against #2 Indiana. But then the Hoosiers rolled off 21 unanswered points and Wisconsin returned to mediocrity. Wisconsin’s defense should be strong enough to pose some level of challenge for Luke Altmyer and the Illini. The Illinois defense has also had enough cracks that Wisconsin shouldn’t be completely obliterated. With a competent defense, home field advantage, and a questionable opposing defense, I think Wisconsin can keep the game close. 

Illinois 28 – Wisconsin 21

More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos