Keep Sleeping: Another Michigan State Projection Bears a 4-8 Season

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Fortune favors the bold and the brave.

Sadly, no fortune looks to be made with every college football prediction site. Instead, it’s a cookie-cutter list when predicting the Big Ten over and over again.

Most rankings do their due diligence when it comes to the top eight teams. Those teams will fluctuate, but they also lean heavily on last year’s outcomes rather than focusing on the actual team that’s heading onto the field this season.

This way of thinking is the same reason not a single media member or talking head predicted Indiana to do so well last year.

That way of thinking stems from decades of torture for colleges outside of the top ten schools. If you weren’t one of the blue bloods, there was no chance you could have a good enough team to win a National Championship. And even if you did have the roster to do it, the rankings based on uniforms and reputation rather than teams still ruled all.

Fast forward to now, and it doesn’t seem like predictors believe teams are about to start shocking the world a lot more than we’re used to seeing in college sports.

So, when College Football Zone posted its final prediction for the Michigan State Spartans and had them going 4-8 while winning just two conference games — Northwestern and Rutgers — the exact GIF of Jim Carrey in Me, Myself & Irene saying, “Oh boy, here we go,” while rolling his eyes in a sarcastic notion played on repeat in my head.

What a shocker.

Another site that has no belief in the Spartans, or possibly no belief in living large and taking chances.

If you missed my prediction article, I have the Spartans finishing 7-5. The addition of Pat Fitzgerald will play more into college football this season than any other new hire, and yes, that includes Michigan, which will also be trotting out a new coach.

Yet, when looking at the two coaches — and keep in mind, this article isn’t meant to bash Kyle Whittingham or even College Football Zone, as this is just a pent-up frustration article about the lack of belief everyone has in the Spartans — there’s no secret that Whittingham is a much more calm-mannered coach, whereas Fitzgerald is going to bring passion and energy.

Both can be effective, but after talking with both of them at Big Ten Media Days, I will put my chips all-in on Fitzgerald being around for a longer period in the Big Ten.

I don’t think it will take long for Fitzgerald’s message to not only break through to the locker room, but immediately see that infectious attitude seep onto the football field as the Spartans reclaim the identity of old: toughness.

The projections from CFZ came with the schedule listed alongside all of the ESPN win probabilities.

Michigan State Football Schedule (with ESPN win probabilities)

  • 9/4 vs. Toledo — 85%
  • 9/12 vs. Eastern Michigan — 91%
  • 9/19 at Notre Dame — 3%
  • 9/26 vs. Nebraska — 32%
  • 10/3 at Wisconsin — 31%
  • 10/10 vs. Illinois — 38%
  • 10/17 vs. Northwestern — 53%
  • 10/24 at UCLA — 38%
  • 11/7 at Michigan — 12%
  • 11/14 vs. Washington — 33%
  • 11/20 vs. Oregon — 7%
  • 11/28 at Rutgers — 44%

So, what I see is every talking head looking at all the probabilities of the Spartans winning in the 30% range and taking every one of them as a loss.

Instead of having the brass to predict wins, most talking heads take the easy way out, and unfortunately, we found another one.

While the rest of the world is afraid to admit it, the Spartans are about to arrive.

Spartans Nation knows what’s afoot.

The rest of the nation keeps sleeping.

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