Hawaii vs UNLV Prediction: Who Will Stay Alive in the Mountain West Race?

NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...

If you really want to get into this, we can. But to keep it as simple as possible …

The Hawaii vs UNLV winner is still alive for the Mountain West Championship, and the loser is effectively out.

And they both want San Diego State and New Mexico to lose, which is a problem because they play each other in the regular season finale.

UNLV miraculously stayed alive in a two-overtime thriller over Utah State, saved by a slew of Aggie missed field goals. It gets this, and then the battle for the Fremont Cannon to close.

Hawaii dropkicked SDSU 38-6 a few weeks ago. It gets this date in Vegas before closing out against Wyoming.

Hawaii vs UNLV Preview

Oct 18, 2025; Fort Collins, Colorado, USA; Hawaii Rainbow Warriors quarterback Micah Alejado (12) prepares to pass against the Colorado State Rams in the first quarter at Sonny Lubick Field at Canvas Stadium.© Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

How To Watch Hawaii vs UNLV

Date: Friday, November 21, 2025
Game Time: 7:00 PM ET
TV: FS1
Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
@PeteFiutak

Why Hawaii Will Win

UNLV’s defense doesn’t work.

The offense is a ton of fun, and it’ll keep up the pace, but the defense is among the worst in America. It’s bad against the pass, worse against the run, and the Rainbow Warriors need to get hot fast and keep it all going.

Quarterback Micah Alejado is a fun all-around playmaking quarterback for Timmy Chang’s passing game. There’s more balance than you might think to the attack, but when Alejado is in a groove, everything else works.

Hawaii is 7-1 when he hits 60% of more of his passes, but …

Nov 8, 2025; Fort Collins, Colorado, USA; UNLV Rebels head coach Dan Mullen looks on as wide receiver Deangelo Irvin Jr. (4) and wide receiver Troy Omeire (0) react in the fourth quarter against the Colorado State Rams at Sonny Lubick Field at Canvas Stadium. © Isaiah J&period; Downing-Imagn Images

Why UNLV Will Win

Here’s the weird thing about the UNLV defense.

It’s not great, and it gives up a bazillon yards, but it’s one of those risk-it-for-the-biscuit defenses. It brings a ton of heat, forces a ton of takeaways, and gets hit way too hard.

But quarterbacks aren’t completing a ton of passes against it.

Only three teams got to the 60% passing mark against the Rebel pass D, and in two of those games – New Mexico and Boise State – UNLV lost.

The UNLV offense can keep up any pace, and it seems comfortable when it has to keep pressing.

Hawaii vs UNLV Prediction, Betting Lines

Now, about all of that with the UNLV defense not allowing quarterbacks to complete a lot of passes – yeah, but the seven teams that didn’t hit 60% have a hard time completing throws.

No one plays with fire more than UNLV when it comes to close games, with five games decided by one score that all really could’ve gone the other way.

If this were in Honolulu, the Rainbow Warriors would’ve pulled it off. But what happens in Vegas (sorry for that) …

This might be the most fun watch you’ll have this college football weekend.

UNLV 34, Hawaii 31
Line: UNLV -2.5, o/u: 64.5
ATS Confidence out of 5: 1.5
Must See Rating: 4

Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

– Expert Picks of the Top 16 Games

This story was originally reported by College Football News on Nov 21, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos