Florida State vs. NC State prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, trends, and stats

Bowl eligibility is on the line tonight in Raleigh when the Seminoles of Florida State (5-5) take on the NC State Wolfpack (5-5).

NC State has been a "house of horrors" for FSU, winning the last three and five of the last six matchups in Raleigh. FSU has yet to win on the road this season. Both teams are inconsistent but possess offenses that can put points on the board which is why the Total is at 59.5.

Lets dive into the schools on both sides of the ball.

Game Details and How to watch Florida State at NC State

• Date: Saturday, November 21, 2025
• Time: 8:00PM Eastern
• Site: Carter-Finley Stadium
• City: Raleigh, NC
• TV/Streaming: ESPN

Game Odds for Florida State at NC State

The latest odds as of Friday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Florida State (-225), NC State (+185)
• Spread: Florida State -6 (-108)
• Total: 59.5 points

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

Florida State Seminoles

Head Coach: Odell Haggins (Interim)
2025 Record: 5-5 (2-5)
Offense Ranking: 44
Defense Ranking: 26
Strength of Schedule: 53

Florida State has battled through a volatile 5-5 season (2-5 ACC), but their underlying metrics suggest they’ve played better than that, as FSU boasts 6.8 second-order wins and rank 28th in SP+. The offense, coordinated by Gus Malzahn, ranks 15th in yards per play (6.83), excels in success rate (25th), and is among the Top 10 in rushing EPA, explosiveness, and third-down conversion rate. Defensively, the Noles’ unit has been stingy against the run (19th in YPC allowed) and explosive plays (13th marginal explosiveness allowed), though breakdowns in pass coverage and an underwhelming pressure-to-sack ratio have limited overall effectiveness. Despite inconsistent execution and a tough schedule, FSU has strong predictive indicators on both sides of the ball and remains dangerous heading into rivalry matchups with NC State and Florida.

The Florida State Seminoles Offense

Florida State’s offense has been surprisingly efficient despite a 5-5 record, ranking 14th nationally in EPA/play and 9th in points per drive, thanks to a Top 15 rushing attack that averages 5.7 yards per carry and an elite stuff rate of just 13.2%. The Seminoles are one of the most explosive offenses in the country, ranking 10th in marginal explosiveness and 6th in explosive passing (22.8% completions of 20+ yards), with an impressive 11.3 adjusted net yards per attempt (12th). They succeed on 46.8% of their plays (25th), convert 80.2% of their down sets (8th), and rank 6th in third-down success rate despite facing the 10th-fastest tempo-adjusted pace in the country. Behind a run-heavy script (64.1% standard-down rush rate) and 69.4% adjusted completion percentage, the Gus Malzahn-led attack is one of the more underrated units in the country.

FSU Player to Watch on Offense: QB Thomas Castellanos

Thomas Castellanos has started all 10 games for the Seminoles, throwing for 2,317 yards and 12 touchdowns against 6 interceptions on 59% completions, with an impressive 15.8 yards per completion and a strong 8.4 yards per dropback. While his success rate through the air sits at just 43.0%, he’s been an explosive play threat, averaging 9.6 adjusted net yards per attempt and posting a respectable 71.8 Total QBR. On the ground, Castellanos has added 473 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns at 5.09 yards per carry, generating first downs on 38.7% of his rushes with a 50.5% success rate. However, he also takes hits often due to his run-happy play style, with a 27.1% of his runs going for zero or negative yards.

The Florida State Seminoles Defense

Florida State’s defense has hovered around national average efficiency levels, ranking 41st in success rate allowed (38.9%) and 28th in yards per play allowed (4.95), buoyed by strong early-down containment but occasional breakdowns on passing downs. They’ve been excellent at limiting explosiveness—ranking 13th in marginal explosiveness and 15th in yards per successful play allowed—yet remain vulnerable in finishing drives, where they sit just 64th in points allowed per scoring opportunity. The Seminoles pressure quarterbacks at the 15th-highest rate nationally (38.3%) and bring frequent heat (33.2% blitz rate), but their sack conversion (22.3%) and havoc rates (DL: 5.2%, LB: 3.7%, DB: 6.5%) are just average across the board. In coverage, FSU runs a balanced mix of man and zone (38.1% man) and has been especially stout against deep shots (14th in adjusted completion rate allowed), though a low PD-to-INC ratio (24.5%, 129th) highlights their struggle to create incompletions on contested throws.

FSU Player to Watch on Defense: Edge Mandrell Desir

Mandrell Desir has racked up 7 total havoc plays including 6 tackles for loss and a team-high 5.0 sacks. The stout interior lineman has shown exceptional finishing ability, creating 4 sacks and forcing a fumble while posting a 13.2% pressure rate on 129 rushes. He’s not just a pass-rusher—Desir also holds a strong 91.3% tackle success rate and has logged 2 run stops despite being double-teamed frequently. His blend of burst, strength, and consistency has made him the most impactful linemen on the Noles’ defense this season.

NC State Wolfpack

Head Coach: Dave Doeren
2025 Record: 3-6
Offense Ranking: 48
Defense Ranking: 87
Strength of Schedule: 48

NC State enters Week 13 at 5-5 (2-4 ACC), riding a roller-coaster campaign defined by a Top 5 explosive offense (5th in marginal explosiveness) and one of the least efficient defenses in the country (127th in yards per play allowed). The Wolfpack have notched quality wins over East Carolina, Virginia, Wake Forest, and most recently Georgia Tech, but suffered decisive blowout losses to Notre Dame (36-7) and Miami (41-7), highlighting their massive performance volatility (ranked 91st in scoring margin). Offensively, they’re capable of big plays through the air (14.0 yards per successful play, 5th) and have one of the highest red zone touchdown rates in the country (78.1%, 5th) but rank just 77th in overall success rate. On the other side of the ball, Dave Doeren’s defense ranks 3rd-to-last (134th) in marginal explosiveness allowed and 127th in yards per play allowed (6.36), with little pass rush (125th in sack rate) and a DB havoc rate that ranks 119th nationally. Despite an SP+ rank of just 68th, NC State has a 58% chance of finishing bowl eligible with a projected home win over North Carolina in the regular season finale.

The NC State Wolfpack Offense

NC State’s offense has leaned heavily on explosiveness to mask its inconsistency, ranking 4th nationally in marginal explosiveness and 5th in yards per successful play (14.0), despite ranking just 77th in success rate. The passing game has been productive, with a 68.6% completion rate (13th) and 7.3 yards per dropback (35th), though it rarely stretches the field vertically and struggles to consistently move the chains, ranking 63rd on third downs. Up front, the line has done an excellent job in pass protection (17th in pressures allowed) but has been plagued by blown run blocks (108th) and a lackluster stuff rate of 25.5% (134th), contributing to drive volatility. Ultimately, the Wolfpack rank 28th in yards per play and 6th in points per scoring opportunity, making them one of the nation’s most feast-or-famine units.

NC State Player to Watch on Offense: RB Hollywood Smothers

Hollywood Smothers has emerged as NC State’s primary backfield workhorse, handling 127 carries for 823 yards (6.48 YPC) and six touchdowns despite a subpar 38.6% rushing success rate. He’s a pure boom-bust runner, generating 17.3% explosive runs of 10+ yards while also getting stuffed for zero or negative yards on 26% of his attempts. Smothers boasts a sensational 4.99 yards after contact per attempt, showcasing impressive balance and power after initial contact. He’s also been a highly reliable pass-game weapon, catching 30 of 33 targets (90.9%) for 176 yards and a score, with 83% of his receptions coming from the backfield.

The NC State Wolfpack Defense

NC State’s defense has been one of the ACC’s most vulnerable units this season, ranking 87th in SP+ and 114th in points per drive allowed (2.52). The Wolfpack have struggled to contain effective offenses, allowing 14.3 yards per successful play (134th nationally) and ranking dead last in marginal explosiveness. Though they maintain solid tackle success (87.4%, 30th) and are decent against the run on standard downs, their lack of pressure (125th in sack rate, 116th in pressure rate) and low havoc rate (13.0%, 115th) has allowed opponents to sustain drives. Additionally, NC State’s secondary has been gashed in zone coverage, surrendering 8.4 yards per dropback (129th), and ranks 128th in third-and-long success rate allowed (32.9%), further compounding their struggles.

NC State Player to Watch on Defense: CB Devon Marshall

Devon Marshall has been a lockdown presence at cornerback, allowing just 12 completions on 34 targets (35.3%) for 131 total yards and a stingy 3.9 yards per attempt. He hasn’t surrendered many big plays—just two receptions of 20+ yards—and quarterbacks have posted a QBR of only 37.3 when throwing his way. He leads the team with 6 pass breakups, showing strong instincts and ball skills on the perimeter. Marshall also chipped in 27 total tackles with a 90.0% tackle rate, including 8 total havoc plays and a forced fumble, providing an all-around impact on the back end.

Florida State and NC State Team Stats, Betting Trends

• North Carolina State has won 4 of its last 5 home games
• Florida State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 as a road favorite
• Florida State's last 4 games have stayed UNDER the Total

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Eric Froton (@CFFroton): Hollywood Smothers to go UNDER 70.5 Rushing Yards

NC State RB Hollywood Smothers erupted with four games of 123+ yards in his first six games. However, over his last five games, his rushing load has decreased substantially following an injury sustained against Pitt in Week 9. Over the last 4 games he has logged just 31 carries and was outrushed by Jayden Scott last week against Miami. For their part, FSU ranks #1 nationally in Yards Per Successful Rush Allowed and while I expect to see points in this game, I expect it to come through the air for the Wolfpack. I’m taking Hollywood Smothers to go Under his 70.5 Rushing Yards line. 
             
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the college football calendar based on data points like past performance, player matchups, stadium information and weather forecasts.

Once the model is finished running, we put its projection next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.

Best bets our model is projecting for tonight’s game between Florida State and NC State

• Moneyline: NBC Sports Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline.
• Spread: NBC Sports Bet is leaning towards a play ATS on the North Carolina State Wolfpack at +6.0.
• Total: NBC Sports Bet is recommending a play on the UNDER on the Game Total of 59.5.

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