SEC picks: Oklahoma's road to CFP gets tougher if Beau Pribula can play
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Oklahoma is two games from the College Football Playoff, and now we’re talking circles.
Because Missouri quarterback Beau Pribula, out for the past month with a non-fractured dislocated ankle, has been medically cleared to play against the Sooners. This, of course, is significant.
Missouri was 6-1 with Pribula as its starter, and closing in on its seventh win last month before Pribula was injured in the second half of a 17-10 loss at Vanderbilt.
The Tigers have since lost to Texas A&M, and beat Mississippi State behind freshman backup Matt Zollers. But Pribula’s medical availability changes everything.
As soon as everyone — player, coaches, medical team, player’s team — circles together and gets on the same page, that is.
“We’ll circle with (Pribula) first, make sure his mental process are where it needs to be,” said Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz. “And that’s if he clears the protocol, which would be the doctors and the trainers (circling) with him. And then obviously, they have to circle with his circle. So, it’ll be a lot of circles.”
Got that circular reasoning?
Understand this: Missouri is a better team with Pribula. It doesn’t mean the Tigers can’t win with Zollers, it just means Pribula has seen and understands more. And the problem solving is quicker and more effective.
Either way, the Sooners have two heavy lifts to get through — both Missouri and LSU — before reaching the CFP. A loss in either game ends the CFP chase.
On to this week’s picks, and remember, the team in bold is the selection against the spread, not necessarily the winner.
Samford at Texas A&M (no line): Fun fact, in lieu of actual Xs and Os for a cupcake game: Bobby Bowden was head coach at Samford (then called Howard College), his alma mater, from 1959-62.
Missouri at Oklahoma (-7.5): Whoever plays quarterback for Missouri, they’ll deal with an Oklahoma defense that has become increasingly difficult on quarterbacks since the Texas loss last month.
In OU’s four-game winning streak since the loss to the Longhorns, it forced the South Carolina, Ole Miss, Tennessee and Alabama quarterbacks to throw five interceptions, and collected 13 sacks.
That emerging defense playing at home, with quarterback John Mateer beginning to find his stride after a thumb injury, will be too much for Missouri.
Charlotte at Georgia (-43.5): Georgia coach Kirby Smart is 0-13-1 vs. the spread when the Dawgs are a 38.5-point or more favorite.
Smart typically pulls starters early in these money games, and no doubt will again when the game gets out of hand. No sense risking injury with a critical game looming against bitter rival Georgia Tech and dynamic quarterback Haynes King.
Eastern Illinois at Alabama (no line): Fun fact, in lieu of actual Xs and Os for a cupcake game: EIU has a healthy history of elite players moving onto the NFL, including quarterbacks Tony Romo, Jimmy Garoppolo and Sean Payton.
Mercer at Auburn (no line): Fun fact, in lieu of actual Xs and Os for a cupcake game: Mercer was the only college in the state of Georgia to remain open during the Civil War.
Kentucky (+9.5) at Vanderbilt: If The Commodores have any hope (it’s slim) of reaching the CFP, they must close out an unbeaten home schedule.
Kentucky has played better of late, and it’s hard to ignore three straight impressive wins: at Auburn, Florida, and against then-unbeaten FCS Tennessee Tech. But Vanderbilt has been nearly flawless at home, and will send off one of the most celebrated senior classes in school history with a win that will take it one step closer to winning 10 games ― for the first time ever.
But Kentucky will cover, as it has all season with two-possession lines: Ole Miss (9.5), Georgia (21.5) and Texas (12.5). And as we all know, good teams win, great teams cover.
Arkansas at Texas (-8.5): Want a reason to stick at eight conference games in the SEC? Texas could win out by beating Arkansas and Texas A&M, and have more wins vs. the CFP Top 14 than any other team in the nation (Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Texas A&M).
But there’s also the matter of two losses to the Top 4 (Ohio State, Georgia) — and the CFP killer, the loss to Florida.
Coastal Carolina at South Carolina (-23.5): This isn’t the game of need; a win here is a given. South Carolina needs to beat bitter rival Clemson next week to help prove this disappointing season is the outlier.
Because a loss to Clemson in Columbia, S.C., isn’t going to get coach Shane Beamer fired, but it absolutely could lead to the two of the SEC’s best players leaving for something bigger.
Could QB LaNorris Sellers ― whose development was hurt this season because of Beamer’s odd hire of offensive coordinator Mike Shula ― leave for a school with deep pockets and a history of transitioning with new quarterbacks (hello, Miami)?
Could wide receiver Nyck Harbor, maybe the most dangerous player in the SEC, go with Sellers as a package? Or find another deep-pocket university better equipped to win big?
Tennessee at Florida (+4.5): As bad as Billy Napier was at Florida — he had the worst record at the school since the 1940s — there’s one undeniable indicator of the failure.
Of the disastrous four-coach stretch in Gainesville since Urban Meyer left after the 2010 season — Will Muschamp, Jim McElwain, Dan Mullen, Napier — only Napier had a losing record vs. Tennessee.
In fact, Napier accounted for two of the three losses among the group in 14 games. The only other coach to lose to Tennessee was McElwain in 2016.
Western Kentucky at LSU (-21.5): QB Michael Van Buren Jr. gets another start for LSU, and it appears as though Garrett Nussmeier not only can’t play (core injury) but has also smartly decided to shut it down to prevent further aggravating an injury that has been problematic all season.
That leaves Van Buren with a chance to win three straight games to end the season, including last week’s win vs. Arkansas, and next week at Oklahoma. It’s a chance to show the new LSU coach (whoever it is) what he can do, or have more starting tape for teams looking for a quarterback in the transfer portal.
In nine career starts (including eight last year at Mississippi State), Van Buren has 16 total touchdowns (five rush) and seven interceptions. He can significantly improve those numbers this week.
Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: If Missouri QB Beau Pribula can play, Tigers can beat Oklahoma
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