Oregon football roundtable for Ducks Week 13 game vs. USC Trojans

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In the Oregon Ducks‘ final guaranteed game at Autzen Stadium, the stakes have been raised with the No. 15 USC Trojans coming to town. While the rivalry between Oregon and USC stands strong, with dominance on the West Coast up for grabs, there is also the College Football Playoff to consider.

Both the Ducks and the Trojans need a win on Saturday to strengthen their playoff resumes, so this is a virtual playoff game of sorts. The Ducks are favored to win this by near double-digits, but with so much on the line, it’s fair to believe that this could go down to the wire.

So far, we’ve broken down the matchup, identified major keys to victory, and covered the injury news heading into Saturday. Now it’s time to make some predictions.

To preview the game, we go through our weekly roundtable with the writers from Ducks Wire to offer our opinions and predictions for what’s to come. Here’s another edition of the roundtable.

Recapping Minnesota

Question: It was a dominant and almost boring win over Minnesota last week. Before we move on to a very entertaining USC matchup, let’s recap. What were you most impressed by last week?

Zachary Neel: I think I was most impressed with the offense in general. That’s a wide-arching statement, I know, but seeing the Ducks start clicking once again, finally in dry weather, was really encouraging to see. Dante Moore was great, Kenyon Sadiq was fantastic, and Oregon showed how good they can be, even without their top two wide receivers.

Don Smalley:I was impressed by the efficiency of the offense and glad to see it. The offense hasn’t been great over the last several weeks. Oregon needed to get the offense back to working on all cylinders, especially before USC. They’ll need it.

Paul White: I was most impressed by Kenyon Sadiq. We’ve heard about his talent from coaches and commentators all season, but we had yet to see the full package until last week. He showed exactly why he’s widely labeled the best tight end in his class.

Bjorn Bergstrom: I loved how Will Stein once again threaded the needle by getting all three standout running backs a good amount of touches. Noah Whittington rumbled for a touchdown, Jordan Davison had two scores, and Dierre Hill Jr. saw work in the receiving game. The Ducks are most dangerous when all three have an impact on the game, much like they did against Iowa and now Minnesota as well.

College Football Playoff Path

Question:If Oregon wins out, it gets into the College Football Playoff, but is unlikely to get a first-round bye. What is your ideal scenario for the Ducks? Do you want that bye? Would you rather have a No. 5 seed? Lay out your perfect path. 

Zachary Neel: At this point, it would be incredibly unlikely for Oregon to get that bye, and to be honest, I’m fine with that. Getting a No. 5 or No. 6 seed means you still get 20-21 days off between games, and a first-round matchup in Autzen Stadium against either the ACC champion or the Group of Six representative. That’s the ideal path.

Don Smalley:I think Oregon itself proved last year that the bye was too much of a layoff for a playoff situation. Having a 5-seed and a home game keeps the rhythm going and the layoff isn’t a big one. The longer they have to wait to play Ohio State, the better. I also want to see what a playoff game at Autzen would look like.

Paul White: I’m actually content with not having a bye. After both byes during the regular season, the Ducks came out flat, and if it wasn’t for Atticus Sappington’s heroics, they would’ve been 0-2 in those games. I believe playing straight through the playoffs gives this team the best chance at success.

Bjorn Bergstrom: I’m not a believer in the bye week working against teams. The bye would be ideal for the Ducks, as they’ve dealt with injuries of late and could be fully healthy. Otherwise, securing the No. 5 seed and facing a Group of Six team at No. 12 in Autzen Stadium seems like a pretty sweet scenario if they can’t get a bye.

USC vs. Iowa

Question: Because of Oregon’s Friday game, we got an open Saturday to check out USC’s win over Iowa. Any major takeaways?

Zachary Neel: I was impressed with how USC was able to weather the elements and pull out a win vs. Iowa, despite falling down early in the game. They are clearly a stronger team, culture-wise, than they have been in the last few years under Lincoln Riley.

Don Smalley:I thought with the weather conditions, Iowa would make enough plays to win the game. That was a very good win for USC. But a home game vs Iowa and a road trip to Autzen are two very different things.

Paul White: Makai Lemon is going to be a pain to deal with. Luckily, we have Brandon Finney Jr. to cover him, so hopefully that will be enough to slow Lemon down.

Bjorn Bergstrom:  The Trojans are tough. The conditions in SoCal were wet and rainy, which made USC’s grass field muddy and slippery. That favors Iowa significantly, yet the Trojans were opportunistic on the ground and had success through the air. Makai Lemon (10 receptions, 153 yards, and a touchdown) is the best wide receiver outside of Jeremiah Smith in college football, in my opinion.

Key to Victory for Oregon Defense

Question: USC has one of the top offenses in the nation this year. What is the No. 1 key to the game for Oregon’s defense to slow them down?

Zachary Neel: This game will be about limiting what USC can do. It’s a bit unrealistic to ask the Ducks to completely shut down both Makai Lemon and King Miller, but if you can make USC one-dimensional, I think you’ve got a good shot at winning. Getting after the passer in clear rushing situations will be important.

Don Smalley:Stop the run and make the Trojans one-dimensional. This will allow the Ducks to pin their ears back and blitz on 2nd and 3rd and long situations. But when they blitz, they have to get to the quarterback. USC’s passing attack is too good to let Jayden Maiava stand there and pick them apart.

Paul White: Back to Lemon, I think taking him out of the game and making anyone else beat you is the way to go. In USC’s last loss, he was held under 100 yards, so the Ducks should do anything to erase him from the game, whether they need to double cover him or have Finney Jr. travel with him the entire game.

Bjorn Bergstrom: Stop Lemon. Check that, limit Lemon. With a guy that good, there’s no stopping him. But if they can hold him to, let’s say five catches for 60 yards, I like Oregon’s chances. He can single-handedly keep the Trojans in the game if the Ducks let him.

Key to Victory for Oregon Offense

Question: Likewise, on offense, how can the Ducks take advantage of USC’s average defense?

Zachary Neel: Run the damn ball. This is a game where Oregon can actually lean into the Big Ten style of play, and use physicality to dominate. If they limit USC’s possessions and dominate in the run game, it forces the Trojans’ hand to try and take shots, putting them in a tough decision.

Don Smalley:Run the ball! The Trojans’ run defense isn’t too good and Oregon should be able to run it, eat up some clock and limit USC’s possessions. Illinois gave Oregon the perfect playbook and the Ducks are a lot better than the Illini.

Paul White: I think they need to lean on the strong running game and keep the ball away from the Trojans as much as possible.

Bjorn Bergstrom: Running the ball right at them. They’re middle of the pack in terms of rushing defense and clearly aren’t as physical as Oregon’s offensive line. It may not pay off right away, but by the second half, I’d expect big yardage chunks from the Ducks’ running backs.

Gambling Corner

Question: Gambling Corner: You get $100 to spread across the point spread (Oregon -9.5), and the over/under (59.5 points). How are you allocating your funds?

Zachary Neel: Give me $60 on Oregon to cover, and $40 on the over.

Don Smalley:I like Oregon to cover the 9.5. I’d put $80 on the Ducks and the $20 on the over.

Paul White: For the first time this year, I’m going all in. I would put all $100 on the over. I think this game is going to be a close shootout.

Bjorn Bergstrom: I’d go all $100 on the over. There will be plenty of points in this game, either with Oregon alone lighting it up or the Trojans being able to go back-and-forth with them. I don’t love the -8.5 number, so I’ll stay away from that.

Final Score Prediction

Question: Final Score Prediction: Who wins the game?

Zachary Neel: Oregon 38, USC 28.

Don Smalley:Ducks cruise 45-20.

Paul White: I think the Ducks will win 38-28.

Bjorn Bergstrom: I think the Ducks pull away at the end. Oregon 38, USC 27.

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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Oregon football predictions for Ducks’ Week 13 game vs. USC Trojans

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