Big Ten breakdown Plenty on the line this week

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Nov. 22—The eight-game Big Ten slate is a mix of matchups with College Football Playoff implications, bowl eligibility at stake and maybe even Matt Rhule's place on Penn State's wish list. Beat writer ranks all eight games and provides his favorites for Illinois MVP, Big Ten MVP and a postseason Illini projection:

Best of the bunch

Who's on the call: Brad Nessler (play-by-play), Gary Danielson (analyst) and Jenny Dell (sideline reports)

Who wins: Oregon, 45-38. That Oct. 11 loss to Indiana aside, Autzen Stadium remains a tough place to play. A real advantage for the Ducks. Also an advantage for Dan Lanning and Co? They're a better team than the Trojans.

Who's on the call: Noah Eagle (play-by-play), Todd Blackledge (analyst) and Kathryn Tappen (sideline reports)

Who wins: Penn State, 21-17. Will the Nittany Lions still want to bring Matt Rhule home after beating his Nebraska team? Who knows. The Penn State alum is clearly a candidate, but there's no telling who fills James Franklin's shoes.

Who's on the call: Jeff Levering (play-by-play), Jake Butt (analyst) and Brooke Fletcher (sideline reports)

Who wins: Michigan, 31-13. With Maryland coach Mike Locksley apparently safe on the job front despite six straight Big Ten losses, the Terrapins no longer have to win this game. The Wolverines do, however, to keep their CFP hopes alive.

Who's on the call: Rhett Lewis (play-by-play), Anthony Heron (analyst) and Dannie Rogers (sideline reports)

Who wins: Illinois, 28-17. The last time the Illini went to Camp Randall Stadium they so thoroughly dominated the game the Badgers fired their coach the next day. Luke Fickell's job is reportedly safe, so a similar result won't send him packing.

Who's on the call: Gus Johnson (play-by-play), Joel Klatt (analyst) and Jenny Taft (sideline reports)

Who wins: Ohio State, 42-13. The closest game the Buckeyes have played all season was still an 18-point win against Illinois in early October in Champaign. Considering the Scarlet Knights lost by 22 at Illinois, they have no chance in Columbus, Ohio.

Minnesota (6-4, 4-3 Big Ten) at Northwestern (5-5, 3-4 Big Ten)

11 a.m., BTN

Who's on the call: Jack Kizer (play-by-play), Matt Millen (analyst) and Sydney Supple (sideline reports)

Who wins: Northwestern, 21-17. This weekend's close game at Wrigley Field will actually go in the Wildcats' favor. They nearly knocked off Michigan at the friendly confines and get the job done against the Gophers this time.

Michigan State (3-7, 0-7 Big Ten) at Iowa (6-4, 4-3 Big Ten)

2:30 p.m., FS1

Who's on the call: Connor Onion (play-by-play) and Mark Helfrich (analyst).

Who wins: Iowa, 35-7. The Hawkeyes have earned their reputation as a boring offensive team, but this year's squad has put up big points on occasion. Even to the blowout stage against bad Big Ten teams, of which the Spartans qualify.

Washington (7-3, 4-3 Big Ten) at UCLA (3-7, 3-4 Big Ten)

9:30 p.m., NBC

Who's on the call: Paul Burmeister (play-by-play), Yogi Roth (analyst) and Caroline Pineda (sideline reports)

Who wins: Washington, 28-20. Huskies running back Jonah Coleman has, per coach Jedd Fisch, "a really good chance" to play against the Bruins. Washington didn't miss him last week against Purdue in a 49-13 victory in Seattle, but will need its star back on Saturday at the Rose Bowl in Pasadena, Calif.

Illinois' success this season hasn't solely come through the efforts of Luke Altmyer, but the veteran quarterback can claim a big chunk of it. Altmyer is in the midst of a career year to close out his time in Champaign. The next touchdown he throws will tie the career high of 22 he set last season in 13 games played. He's only 290 yards from tying his career passing high also set in 2024. Altmyer could clear both Saturday in Madison, Wis., with the regular-season finale against Northwestern and a bowl game left to play in what will be one of the best single seasons by an Illinois quarterback in program history.

A quick glance at the Big Ten statistical leaders would make it seem like Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin and Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza are in a dead heat. Their stats line up across the board — passing yards, touchdowns, limited interceptions — and they're doing it for the top two teams in the country. Then you notice Sayin has played in one fewer game. With Mendoza and the Hoosiers sitting out this week, the Ohio State sophomore can pull significantly ahead with a big game against Rutgers and perhaps lock in MVP honors ahead of rivalry week.

Somehow, the closer Illinois gets to a second straight nine-win season, the further they get from a decent bowl game among the national prognosticators. The Illini can win out, beating Wisconsin on the road this week and Northwestern at home to close out the regular season. But it's something a few national football writers apparently don't see happening, with ESPN's Mark Schlabach still sending Illinois to the Pinstripe Bowl in New York (hard pass) and now CBS Sports' Brad Crawford dumping the Illini in the GameAbove Sports Bowl in Detroit (harder pass). I'd put money on Illinois headed somewhere in Florida.

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