What would have to go wrong for Ohio State to miss the College Football Playoff?

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It is easy to look at Ohio State’s roster and find reasons the Buckeyes should make the College Football Playoff.

Julian Sayin is entering his second season as the starter, Jeremiah Smith is arguably the best receiver in the country, Bo Jackson rushed for 1,090 yards as a freshman, and the defense still has elite talent at virtually every level. Not to mention the elite coaching staff in place as well.

But if Ohio State actually does end up missing the CFP, the most likely explanation may be much less glamorous: the Buckeyes simply get beaten up front.

The offensive line is the biggest immediate question. Ohio State returns plenty of experience, but last season showed that experience does not automatically translate into dominance against elite competition.

The Buckeyes’ offense had some terrible stretches against Indiana and Miami, particularly when they needed to consistently create inside the red zone.

The encouraging development is that the staff appears to have found it’s, “best five” that they believe can raise the unit’s ceiling. Ian Moore is currently working at left tackle, with Austin Siereveld moving back to right guard alongside Luke Montgomery, Carson Hinzman and Phillip Daniels.

Ryan Day said Monday that group was working together with the first team. That could be exactly what Ohio State needs under new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith, but they still need to prove themselves, especially against top-level competition.

And the schedule leaves almost no room for an offensive line that struggles against comparable talent. Ohio State travels to Texas in Week 2, visits Indiana, travels to USC, hosts Oregon and finishes the regular season against Michigan.

The Buckeyes’ schedule release notes that nine of their 12 regular season opponents played in a bowl game or the CFP in 2025, while seven won at least nine games.

If Moore cannot consistently handle elite edge rushers, if the interior struggles to create movement in the run game, or if the unit repeats some of last year’s problems against physical defenses, Ohio State could suddenly find itself in several one-score games.

The defensive line presents a different but equally important concern. Ohio State lost two enormous pieces in Caden Curry and Kayden McDonald. Curry finished 2025 with 66 tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss and 11 sacks, while McDonald recorded 65 tackles, nine tackles for loss and three sacks before becoming a second-round NFL Draft pick.

Replacing that production collectively is a major challenge. Kenyatta Jackson Jr. is the obvious candidate to take a major step forward. He already broke out in 2025, recording 28 tackles, 11 tackles for loss and 6.5 sacks. But expecting him to suddenly become a double-digit sack player is a projection, not a guarantee.

Ohio State also needs its new defensive line additions, like James Smith and John Walker to immediately provide quality snaps and needs players such as Eddrick Houston to take another step forward.

That is the nightmare scenario for the Buckeyes. The offensive line cannot consistently win against elite defensive fronts, while the defensive line cannot consistently create pressure or control the run against elite offenses. Ohio State could probably survive one of those problems, but if both happen at the same time, the schedule becomes very dangerous, very fast.

Texas, Indiana, USC, Oregon and Michigan are five games where Ohio State could realistically find itself in a trench battle. If the Buckeyes lose two or three of those matchups, a season that many expect to finish 12-0 or 11-1 could quickly turn into 9-3 or even 8-4.

The expanded Playoff gives Ohio State some margin for error, and even a 10-2 or 9-3 record could keep the Buckeyes in the conversation, but multiple losses would likely mean a much tougher path to the postseason and a far less favorable position once they get there.

That may ultimately be the answer to the question. Ohio State probably does not miss the CFP because Jeremiah Smith suddenly has a down year or Julian Sayin forgets how to play quarterback.

The bigger concern is whether the trenches fail to live up to the standard the rest of the roster demands. The Buckeyes have too much talent at nearly every other position for that weakness to go unnoticed.

In 2026, the biggest question may be whether Ohio State can still win the way it has historically won, up front and in the trenches.

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