Previewing UVA football’s Week Zero clash with NC State

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It took a while, but football is finally back.

Tony Elliott now enters his fifth season as head coach at UVA, looking to keep the momentum rolling after a program-best 11 wins a year ago. The ‘Hoos portal’d well for a second season in a row, including finding a new quarterback in Beau Pribula, along with a new starting running back in Jekail Middlebrook and a mostly unproven (at the Power-Four level) crop of receivers. The ‘Hoos will lean on their experienced offensive line to make things happen Saturday and all year long.

Defensively, the Cavaliers are deep and experienced at linebacker and in the secondary with guys like Kam Robinson, Ethan Minter, and Donavan Platt all back in Charlottesville. The biggest storyline surrounding the game for the ‘Hoos is whether we see Robinson play in this first game. He’s coming off of a torn ACL suffered in UVA’s first meeting with Duke in November of last season, but has earned praise from Tony Elliott for being ahead of schedule with his recovery. Elliott mentioned earlier this week that Robinson will be a game-time decision, with him listed as ‘Questionable’ on the ACC injury report.

WR Rico Flores Jr. is the big surprise on the injury list. He’ll be unavailable Saturday, while DB Corey Costner joins Robinson as another ‘Questionable’ Cavalier. For the most part, UVA got through preseason practices as healthy as they have in a while.

Here are three players to watch, two keys to the game, and a prediction ahead of what will officially be Scott Stadiums first sold-out crowd since 2008.

Time: Saturday, August 29th at 3:30 PM Eastern

Watch: ESPN

Commentators: Wes Durham, Max Browne, and Madison Fitzpatrick

Three Players to Watch

QB CJ Bailey

One of the best, most versatile QBs across the league, Bailey’s been fun to watch in the short time he’s been on the field. He tossed 25 touchdowns and ran for six, while totaling 3,320 yards of offense in ‘25. State’s ability to retain a talent like him was a huge offseason win for head coach Dave Doeren and his staff.

Bailey’s a true dark horse contender to win ACC Player of the Year come December. He lit up the ‘Hoos for 200 yards through the air to go with three TD’s a year ago. He very well may need to be Superman to win this game this time around, but the talent is there to dazzle if UVA can’t bottle him up.

RB Jayden “Duke” Scott

Hollywood Smothers gashed UVA for 140 yards and two touchdowns a year ago. He now plays for the Texas Longhorns. His departure sets up Scott as the clear RB1 for the ‘Pack. Scott was productive in ‘25 with four touchdowns and 595 yards in 13 games as a sidekick to Smothers.

He’s already shown ability to be that number one guy, though in a small sample size. He ran for 196 and a touchdown against Georgia Tech in ‘25 with Smothers injured. He’s not at all shy running towards contact, either. Scott’s a bulldozer at 5-foot-10, 225 pounds and will make the ‘Hoos pay for any bad tackling.

S King Mack

Mack was a big get out of the portal coming over from Penn State after James Franklin was let go. As a junior, he started in eight games, racked up 58 total tackles and added an interception in a close loss to eventual national champion Indiana.

Mack was highly coveted out of high school as a four-star recruit initially committing to PSU, before transferring to Alabama, then back to PSU in 2025 where he had his best season by far. Four moves in four years pretty much sums up college football in 2026, but a well-travelled safety like Mack will be a test both Beau Pribula and his receivers will need to pass throughout the day.

Two Keys

Limit CJ Bailey’s chances to run

Just like before last year’s game, Kam Robinson’s availability is especially important to Bailey’s ability to affect this game. Bailey was great all-around a year ago, but his 45 yards and two touchdowns on the ground proved to be especially killer. Landon Danley played heavy snaps in that loss with Robinson out and at that point was minimally experienced, with one of Bailey’s TD’s coming from Danley taking a bad angle and allowing him to find open field.

Anyone who’s watch a Virginia football game the last few years knows what Robinson brings, should be get the green light Saturday, but there’s reason to feel better about this defense having to rely on guys like Danley and Maddox Marcellus to make plays after the experience both of those guys gained from last season.

Like UVA, NC State will work in a new group of pass-catchers after losing its top four options from ’25, and the fifth leading pass-catcher is back with the team but will not play due to a suspension. The ‘Hoos look to be deep at defensive back with multiple new starters coming from Big Ten schools. I mentioned it in our DB preview, but the importance of UVA getting its secondary pieces into the program in January, as opposed to after spring ball like last year, should not be overlooked. There were plenty of communication mistakes to start last season, including in that game at NC State. The skill was there; the cohesion was not. It seems like UVA has both of those this time around.

That is all to say that I like UVA’s chances if they can keep Bailey contained in the pocket. He can sling it with no problem, and receivers JoJo Trader (Miami) and Davion Dozier (App State) are both talented. Still, I don’t think we’ll see the same chunk plays we did a year ago in this game through the air if the defense can keep Bailey mostly one-dimensional.

Get the pass-catchers (and Beau Pribula) some early wins

With a borderline elderly offensive line of fifth, sixth, and seventh-year guys to go with a deep running back group, the ‘Hoos should be able to own the ground game consistently. But with a new QB in Pribula and a new starting group of receivers that now won’t include Flores Jr., some early confidence goes a long way.

A bubble screen to the outside to get Jacquon Gibson the ball in space, a quick, in-rhythm throw to get Ty’Lyric Coleman the rock right away, a jet-sweep to insert Kam Courtney into the game; Des Kitchings must get these guys involved and feeling confident as quickly as possible. This could be a game where we really get to see just how good Kitchings is at adjusting to the personnel he’s forced to work with.

I think you could have already assumed this offense leaning on the tight ends, specifically Dakota Twitty, in the passing game was going to be important this entire season, but without Flores, who was likely WR1, or WR2 at worst, Twitty, Connor Cox, and John Rogers could be called upon to be more featured options for Pribula.

One Prediction

Opening games always have the potential to be full of sloppy plays. There were plenty on both sides when these teams met in Week Two of last year. Because this is an opener, I tend to want to lean towards experience. Yes, it’s known that CJ Bailey is one of the best quarterbacks not only in the ACC, but maybe the country. I also am a big fan of the effort the Wolfpack staff put in to rebuild around Bailey.

But what sticks out the most is UVA’s offensive line against an NC State defensive front, which is replacing three of its starters and multiple key pass-rushers on the edges. It’s a tough ask to try and push around what might be the best offensive line in the league. I feel good about UVA’s chances to run the ball and therefore stay on schedule for shorter third-down plays where Kitchings is able to use the entire playbook, and I think they’ll find ways to move the ball in the air when they need to as a result.

This game was a fun one a year ago, I have it being no different this time around, minus a few points. The ‘Hoos get revenge for Chandler Morris and start the year 1-0.

Prediction: UVA 28, NC State 23

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