The Athletic predicts Florida's 2026 record under Jon Sumrall

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Florida football's 2026 season starts in one week, which means it's the last call for any regular-season predictions.

The Athletic's Seth Emerson went through the SEC one more time and projected Florida to improve but settle for seven wins. Emerson has the Gators beating Florida Atlantic, Campbell, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Florida State, finishing with a 7-5 (4-5 SEC) record.

Of those teams, Oklahoma has the best projected record, with Emerson predicting the Sooners to finish the season 8-4 overall and 6-3 in the SEC. What's even better is that victory would kick off a four-game winning streak if Emerson's projections come true. Kentucky and Florida State are both away games, but are also the only two games Emerson sees Florida winning away from Ben Hill Griffin Stadium.

The bad news is that Emerson predicts Florida to lose its first five SEC games. After Florida Atlantic and Campbell, Florida heads to Auburn, then comes back home against Ole Miss and opens October with a road game against Missouri. All three of those are expected losses, as are the two other October games at Texas and against Georgia in Atlanta.

That's a tough stretch for any team to navigate, and momentum is a real thing in the sport. Flipping the switch against Oklahoma might be more difficult than the projection suggests. A win over Auburn, Ole Miss or Missouri would help make the middle of the season more bearable for Florida, and an eight-win season would be a big improvement after finishing 4-8 last year. Emerson isn't ruling out overachievement for the Orange and Blue, either.

“Jon Sumrall, with Buster Faulkner in tow to fix the offense, may coach up the Gators into Playoff contention right away,” Emerson wrote.

Still, a lot has to go right for Florida to hit that eight-win mark. Quarterback uncertainty remains a real issue for the Gators. Aaron Philo has been named the starter, but it's a competition that could remain fluid into SEC play. Health is another concern for any program competing in one of the most physical leagues in the sport.

Emerson has Georgia winning the SEC with an 11-1 record, followed by a four-way tie among Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss and Texas, which are all projected to finish 10-2.

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This article originally appeared on Gators Wire: The Athletic predicts Florida's 2026 record under Jon Sumrall

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