USC vs Fresno State Prediction: Will the Trojan Defense Be Better?
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The Pac-12 team that’s now a Big Ten team will take on a Pac-12 team that used to be a Mountain West team.
(That’s the one and only time we’ll do that all year – we promise.)
Fresno State plays its first game as a Pac-12 team, and it needs to be hot right away on both sides of the ball to slow down a loaded USC offense and take advantage of a Trojan defense that was shaky late in the 42-26 win over San Jose State.
USC vs Fresno State Prediction: Quick Hits
- USC was razor-sharp early on offense, getting out to a 35-3 lead on San Jose State. The defense let down in the fourth quarter, giving up 23 points.
- Fresno State beat USC 24-7 in the 1992 Freedom Bowl, but the Trojans have won the last five meetings.
- Fresno State faces Sacramento State and San Jose State next. USC gets a tune-up against Louisiana before starting Big Ten play at Rutgers.
How To Watch USC vs Fresno State
Date: Friday, September 4, 2026
Game Time: 9:00 PM ET
TV: FOX
Location: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA
– CFN Week 1 Schedule, Predictions
Why Fresno State Will Win
The USC defense struggled late against the San Jose State medium-range passing game, and Fresno State has to come out and do what it will likely do best – run the ball.
Maryland transfer Khristian Martin is a big 6-4, 230-pound passer, but under head coach Matt Entz, Fresno State wins when it runs. San Jose State isn’t a running team, but when quarterback Luke Weaver took off, he found some room.
Martin will throw, but Fresno State was 8-0 last season when it ran at least 32 times. Keep grinding and control the game.
Why USC Will Win
Jayden Maiava was fantastic.
The offense didn’t have star wide receiver transfer Terrell Anderson from NC State, and it still was close to perfect before taking the foot off the gas. Maiava completed 25-of-29 passes for 286 yards and two touchdowns and ran for a touchdown – he was in total command.
Fresno State had one of the best defenses among the Group of Six teams last season, but the top cornerbacks are gone, and the coaching staff didn’t go after any sure-thing ones in the portal.
USC vs Fresno State Prediction, Betting Lines
USC didn’t go full bore for all 60 minutes against San Jose State, but don’t take anything out of that. The offense was fantastic when it needed to be. The secondary, though, allowed way too many big plays and, overall, the legs didn’t appear to be there in the fourth quarter.
Fresno State won’t be any sort of a pushover, it’ll look the part, but Maiava and the offense will keep on pressing this week.
USC 38, Fresno State 15
Latest Consensus Line: USC -23.5, o/u: 51.5
ATS Confidence (out of 5): 2
Must See Rating (out of 5): 3.5
Consensus line based on BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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