College football predictions for the 2026 season: Conference picks, surprises, disappointments and national championship winners

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The first full week of college football has arrived — and with it comes one of the most loaded slates of the season.

But before we get to Week 1, we have to prognosticate on how it'll all play out this season. Will Arch Manning deliver at Texas before riding off to the NFL? Will Lane Kiffin get it done in Year 1 at LSU? Who will be hoisting the national championship trophy in Sin City in January?

Our team of college football experts breaks it all down with their annual predictions, picking conference winners, title game matchups, surprises, disappointments and more.

Feel free to disagree, or to make your own picks in the comments below.

Ross Dellenger

Against the backdrop of perhaps the most unsettling and chaotic off-the-field circumstances in the industry's history, the 2026 season will make us all, at least for four months, forget about all those pesky transfer, compensation and eligibility issues! Maybe. Two big brands — Notre Dame and Texas — meeting for it all in Sin City itself. What a spectacle it'll be: Arch Manning vs. CJ Carr; Steve Sarkisian's offensive exploits against defensive guru Marcus Freeman; and two fan bases of college football giants hungry for their first title in decades.

In the ACC, Miami still reigns supreme, but watch out for the upstart Hokies under new coach James Franklin. Out West, Oregon advances to the national semifinals after winning the Big Ten title and Texas Tech returns to the playoff despite the absence of QB Brendan Sorsby. The Hoosiers take a step back, but don't count out Curt Cignetti for the long haul. They'll be back.

The Ducks QB, Dante Moore, beats out Arch for the top prize in the sport, and Boise State's Spencer Danielson turns another playoff run into, perhaps, a bigger job during this year's coaching carousel. Speaking of that, expect a few big openings in the head-coaching world and some whopping buyouts paid, especially down in Tallahassee.

Nick Bromberg

I'll be frank; I think any of the top seven teams in our preseason top 25 are capable of winning the national title. It feels like a very wide-open year that could be schedule dependent; there will be a team that is under-seeded in the College Football Playoff because it had a road loss that others didn't.

But I'm going with Oregon because the Ducks look the most well-built of anyone to win the title this year. It's hard to buy arguments about teams having a hard time getting over the hump after a program like Indiana won the national title a season ago. History hardly matters when you're dealing with modern college football.

Oregon's defensive line should be electric and Dante Moore is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. The Ducks' potential regular-season success is why Moore is my pick for the Heisman, though I could see an SEC title helping Arch Manning's case for the award.

If Texas doesn't get it done this year — or doesn't at least make the semifinals of the CFP — I think big questions will be asked of Steve Sarkisian. The same goes for Alabama's Kalen DeBoer and USC's Lincoln Riley. Ten wins and the playoff seems like the bare minimum for them.

Outside of the Big Ten and the SEC, I'll be surprised if anyone outside the state of Utah puts up a fight against Texas Tech in the Big 12, and Louisville and SMU look like the strongest challengers to Miami in the ACC. Oklahoma State is my surprise team because I think the Cowboys are capable of an eight-win season with all the North Texas help that migrated up I-35 to Stillwater, and this is probably going to be the end of the road for Mike Norvell at Florida State.

Jay Busbee

Get ready, bandwagon jumpers, because the original bandwagon team — Notre Dame — is about to barrel back into the national spotlight. Between a manageable early schedule, the lack of a conference title game roadblock, and some seriously wounded pride after last season, this is the year Notre Dame gets it together and busts through a crowded field at the top of the CFP.

And speaking of programs that missed out on the 2025 playoff: Steve Sarkisian and Texas will once again disappoint despite a loaded roster. Florida State was the benchmark for money-can't-buy-happiness in the NIL/portal era; Texas is about to take that crown … and no other.

As for Lane Kiffin and LSU, well — the man doesn't have a problem living with all eyes on him, and this year he'll begin building the foundation of a program that's going to be a serious problem for the SEC for years to come … or until he's enticed away to yet another job, whichever.

Dante Moore will give Oregon fans a tiny bit of joy amid yet another heartbreak; the Ducks, Ohio State, Indiana and USC will pummel each other bloody in the Big Ten. Georgia and Oklahoma will duke it out in the SEC, with A&M and Ole Miss not far behind. (Don't get your hopes up this year, Tide fans.) Miami and Texas Tech will put substantial distance between themselves and the rest of their conferences.

And, of course, all of this will be laughably wrong by Oct.1, in which case I'll deny ever writing it. 

Andy Backstrom

Of my dark horses this season, Louisville is probably the smallest reach. Granted Miami might showcase one of the best offenses in the country this year, but the Hurricanes' defensive turnover among their front six is a concern (filling the void left by first-round picks Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor is no easy feat). Plus, Miami has to play Notre Dame and Clemson; Louisville does not. And on a potential path to the ACC title game, the Cardinals dodge the Hurricanes as well. I'm betting on Ohio State transfer quarterback Lincoln Kienholz realizing his potential under Jeff Brohm, who practically has a Ph.D. in the portal by now and has won 28 games in his first three seasons running the program.

I tapped Kansas State to emerge from the Big 12 last season. Hand up, I was wrong, but I'm running back that pick anyway. I don't have confidence in Texas Tech or BYU winning the league this time around. The NIL war chest came through for the Red Raiders in 2025; however, successfully replacing nine NFL draft picks remains challenging no matter how much money you have. Sure, Texas Tech reloaded, and its defense could be gnarly again … and the Red Raiders' schedule is a godsend. I just can't ignore the quarterback situation in Lubbock. As for the Cougars, they have a more rigorous slate and haven't won 10-plus games in three straight seasons since they stacked four of those campaigns from 2006-09. Back to K-State: I'm still a believer in Avery Johnson, and who better to maximize his dual-threat skill set than new head coach Collin Klein? Their work together in 2023 teased what could be.

I went chalk for the Big Ten and SEC. That doesn't mean I have Ohio State and Georgia reaching the national championship, though. I'm penciling in a pair of at-large bids to make up the title game: Oregon and Texas. Arch Manning will win the Heisman Trophy, yet Oregon's Dante Moore will hoist the CFP trophy, giving the Ducks their long-awaited crown.

By the way, watch out for Bob Chesney's UCLA. The Bruins could win eight or nine games right out of the gates under his leadership. Oh, and I'm not expecting some Year 1 faceplant from Lane Kiffin. Drama aside, LSU should be more than fine, thanks to offensive fireworks and some key components of defensive continuity, including coordinator Blake Baker.

Dan Wolken

There's no need to overthink the ACC. Despite famously never winning the ACC title since joining the league in 2004, Miami has the best roster and a very manageable schedule. They've also got a lot of confidence and momentum coming off last season. Yes, Mario Cristobal's teams have found ways to shoot themselves in the foot before. But it'd be a huge surprise if the Hurricanes aren't in the ACC championship game.

In the Big 12, I am skeptical Texas Tech will be as dominant as it was last season. That was a truly special group on defense, and the fallout from the Brendan Sorsby fiasco leaves some question marks at quarterback. For that reason, I'll go a different direction and take Houston. Getting the Cougars to 10-3 last season was a huge achievement for Willie Fritz. There's enough to like with the program trajectory and continuity at key positions — including quarterback Conner Weigman having a second year in the system — to take a flier on the Cougars here.

With the Big Ten, it's strange how little conversation has centered on Indiana — you know, the defending national champ? The Hoosiers are absolutely loaded. Again. Though there's probably not a ton of separation among the Big Ten's top few teams, Indiana should be conference favorite because of its schedule. Having Ohio State and USC both at home gives the Hoosiers a slight advantage, particularly if there are tiebreakers that impact the Big Ten title game.

In the SEC, Ole Miss has the most incentive to really lock in on getting to Atlanta. Though things are more settled in Oxford now compared to the chaos of Lane Kiffin's exit last December, you have to think it still motivates that locker room to keep winning without him. Plus, Ole Miss has never played in the SEC championship game, so making it there would be a real legacy marker for quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, running back Kewan Lacy and the rest of a veteran, well-balanced roster. I also have more confidence in the culture at Ole Miss than Texas, for instance, where the vibes coming out of fall camp have been weird.

For the Group of Six, Boise State is the pick but there's a chance the Broncos are out of the playoff race by Week 2. That's the risk-reward of opening the season with a game at Oregon, followed by a massive G6 clash at home against Memphis. We can assume Boise State is going to keep things rolling in its new league because that's what the Broncos have done every time they've changed conferences. Spencer Danielson brought back enough on offense, particularly up front and with quarterback Maddux Madsen, that Boise should score a lot of points against opponents of similar talent.

Biggest surprise

After a recent trip to UCLA, I am convinced the Bruins will shock a lot of people and win nine games. Bob Chesney has an excellent track record as a head coach and he's a guy who can single-handedly change the energy of a program. UCLA was really beaten down by the Deshaun Foster experience, and it's clear the players there have embraced a different approach. Chesney, like Curt Cignetti did at Indiana, also brought several players with him from James Madison to instantly stabilize the roster and fill holes. And maybe now that he's in a more stable coaching situation, this will be the year Nico Iamaleava lives up to the potential that made him a blue-chip recruit.

Biggest disappointment

The timing of the Brent Venables contract extension at Oklahoma was strange — so strange that I wonder whether there's some internal doubt about this year's team and the extension was new AD Roger Denny's way of warding off any hot-seat talk if things go south. Though the Sooners have an easy opener against UTEP, a trip to Michigan in Week 2 certainly has the potential to go sideways. A Week 3 game against New Mexico and that excellent coaching staff is dangerous. Then it's a trip to Georgia, followed by Texas in a game Oklahoma has struggled badly in the last two years. The middle part of the season is easier, but finishing with Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Missouri is brutal. Oklahoma managed to get to 10-2 last year, but it never felt like there was much margin for error. This will be the year they need some.

Heisman winner

In the pre-NIL days, Oregon's Dante Moore would have sprinted out of college football last season and secured his millions as a top-five pick in the NFL Draft. Now, these stay-or-go decisions can be more strategic — and Moore had good reasons to come back in terms of development and perhaps avoiding an NFL team he didn't want to go to (cough, Jets, cough). The Heisman case for Moore is therefore straightforward. Not only was he practically at that level a year ago, but he comes back with more experience and a ton of talent around him.

National champ

At long last, this is the year Nike founder Phil Knight will celebrate a national title for his beloved Ducks. Though Oregon has had its season ended in blowout fashion each of the last two years, very few coaches win it all without taking some postseason lumps first. Dan Lanning has gone through that progression and now heads into Year 5 with a great combination of experience and talent that fits the way they want to play. Oregon is simply built the right way, with a heavy emphasis on physicality at the line of scrimmage, and they've been so dang consistent under Lanning that one day they're bound to knock the door down. This could be the year.

LSU’s record

Anyone expecting Lane Kiffin to fall on his face at LSU isn't living in reality. He's a good coach with a lot of resources who wins a whole bunch of games. But it's also not going to be a totally smooth ride, especially in Year 1. Having Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss and Texas A&M on their SEC schedule is among the toughest draws in the league, and there's a reason why Kiffin has pushed so hard to add players getting waived from NFL training camps. He knows they need more talent to live up to the crazy expectations that came to Baton Rouge the moment he signed a contract with $13 million per season. It's always interesting around Lane, but this feels like a somewhat ho-hum 9-3.

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