SMU vs Florida State Prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, betting trends, and stats

The final game of the Week 1 College Football schedule will feature a heavy-hitting ACC matchup between the SMU Mustangs (0-0) and Florida State Seminoles (1-0). This is the season opener for SMU, while Florida State earned a 34-17 win over New Mexico State in Week 0.

To start the year, the AP Poll has SMU ranked No. 19, while Florida State is unranked. ACC Preseason Poll had SMU slated second this year, while Florida State came in at 11th. Despite the media members pegging such a big edge between the two, SMU is a small road favorite in Tallahassee as Mike Norvell starts his season 1-0 and still on the hot seat with the Seminoles.

Florida State beat New Mexico State, 34-17 in Week 0 to get off on the right foot. Ashton Daniels (Stanford, Auburn) took over at quarterback and recorded 232 total yards, two touchdowns, and one interception in his FSU debut. Florida State averaged 33.0 points per game in 2025 (22nd) and started this season off with 34. In 2025, the Seminoles won their first three games, including beating #8 Alabama, 31-17, but lost seven out of the next nine games. Florida State climbed to #8 in the rankings last year.

SMU's quarterback Kevin Jennings sustained a right finger injury in the locker room during camp that had him out for 10 days, but back in the mix over the last two weeks. If Jennings is rusty, the SMU offense could struggle. The Mustangs finished last season 31st in yards per game (416.9) and 26th in points per game (32.2).

Let’s dive into the schools on both sides of the ball, look at a few key players, and see where the numbers take us.

Game Details and How to Watch SMU vs Florida State

• Date: Monday, September 7, 2026
• Time: 7:30PM Eastern
• Site: Doak Campbell Stadium
• City: Tallahassee, FL
• TV/Streaming: ESPN

Game Odds for SMU vs Florida State

The latest odds as of Monday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: SMU Mustangs (-155), Florida State Seminoles (+130)
• Spread: SMU -3 (-108)
• Total: 53.5 points

Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the college football schedule!

SMU Mustangs

Head Coach: Rhett Lashlee
2025 Record: 9-4 (6-2)
Offensive Points Per Game: 32.2 (26th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 20.5 (T-31st)
2025 Strength of Schedule: 61st
2026 Strength of Schedule: 52nd

The SMU Mustangs Offense:

SMU returns three starters on the offensive line along with star quarterback Kevin Jennings for 2026. However, the Mustangs have to replace a ton of production from the running back and wide receiver rooms. SMU loses 80% of its rushing yards and 68.5% of their receiving yards from last season. Only two main contributors from last year's team hit the portal as most graduated or entered the NFL. In 2025, SMU scored at least 30 points in eight out of 13 games and 42 or more in three contests. It will be hard to match that production, but as long as Jennings is healthy, SMU is a dangerous offense.

SMU Player to Watch on Offense: QB Kevin Jennings

Kevin Jennings recorded nine games of two-plus passing touchdowns and five games of three or more in 2025. There was only one game where Jennings finished below 200 passing yards (13-12 loss to Wake Forest) and three games below a 60% completion rate (WF, Clemson, BC). It's difficult to stop Jennings, but he was a different player at home than on the road last year. Jennings had a 73% completion percentage at home versus 58.9% on the road and his QB rating dipped from 163.6 to 129.2.

The SMU Mustangs Defense:

For the past three years, SMU's calling on defense has been getting to the quarterback. The Mustangs have the second-most sacks in the country over the last three seasons and will once again have to restart on the defensive line. Going into 2025, SMU lost all four starters on the defensive line, and entering 2026, the Mustangs must do it again. SMU also replaces three starters in the secondary, including their top two tacklers. The Mustangs held nine of their 13 opponents to 20 or fewer points last season, including the OT win over #10 Miami (26-20 OT win).

SMU Player to Watch on Defense: LB Brandon Booker

Brandon Booker finished third in tackles last year for SMU with 69. Booker is the leading returning tackler for the Mustangs and could lead the team in 2026. All three starting linebackers are back for SMU, led by Booker who put together eight games with at least five tackles and five or more with seven-plus.

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Florida State Seminoles

Head Coach: Mike Norvell
2025 Record: 5-7 (2-6)
2026 Record: 1-0
Offensive Points Per Game: 33.0 (22nd)
Defensive Points Per Game: 22.0 (43rd)
2025 Strength of Schedule: 45th
2026 Strength of Schedule: 22nd

The Florida State Seminoles Offense:

To start the year, Florida State scored 34 on New Mexico State and put up 419 total yards. The Seminoles went 8-for-14 on third downs and out-rushed the Aggies, 217-47. Florida State scored at least 31 points in seven out of 12 games last season and they went 5-2 in those games. The Seminoles ranked 11th in rushing yards per game (218.7) and ranked tied 18th with 31 rushing touchdowns. The ground game will be a focal point of the offense once again with transfers Ashton Daniels (Stanford, Auburn) at quarterback and three quality running backs that all earned time against New Mexico State.

Florida State Player to Watch on Offense: RB Quintrevion Wisner

Quintrevion Wisner was with Texas for the last three seasons and had a breakout year in 2024. Wisner put up 1,064 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 226 carries (4.7 ypc). In 2025, Wisner dealt with a hamstring injury that kept him out a few games and slowed him down to 597 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 131 carries (4.6 ypc). Wisner only had four carries against New Mexico State for 34 yards (long of 16), but also added three receptions for four yards. While his numbers don't pop off the page like Ousmane Kromah's (15 touches, 122 yards, 1 TD), Wisner will see his role increase as he was named to the Earl Campbell Tyler Rose Watch List.

The Florida State Seminoles Defense:

Florida State started the year with holding New Mexico State to 47 rushing yards and forcing one interception. If you take away New Mexico State's two longest runs (12, 10), they had 25 yards on 21 carries! To play devils advocate, the Seminoles did struggle with penalties (8 for 85 yards) and allowed the Aggies to convert 10 out of 17 third downs, which could be bad news against SMU.

In 2025, the Seminoles allowed 30 points in their first three games (10.0 PPG), but permitted 234 points over the next nine contests for 33.4 points per game. The Seminoles only gave up 28-plus points four times in 2025, but season-worsts of 46 points to Virginia (OT) and 40 to Florida inflated their numbers.

Florida State Player to Watch on Defense: DB Ashlynd Barker

Ashlynd Barker is back as one of the leaders in the secondary for the Seminoles. Barked registered 48 tackles in 2025, ranking second on the team and is the returning team-leader in that department. In 11 games, Barker recorded at least five tackles in six of them and grabbed a sack in three different games (2.5 sacks). In Week 0 against New Mexico State, Barker led the team with eight tackles, three solo, and had one pass deflection.

SMU and Florida State Team Stats, Betting Trends

• Florida State went 0-1 ATS and 1-0 to the Under in Week 0
• SMU was 6-7 ATS last season
• Florida State was 5-7 ATS last season
• SMU was 2-4 ATS on the road last season
• Florida State went 5-2 ATS at home last season
• SMU was 9-4 to the Under last season
• SMU was 3-3 to the total on the road
• Florida State was 6-6 on the total last season
• Florida State was 4-3 to the Over at home last season
• Florida State went 1-2 ATS as an underdog last season and were 1-1 as a home underdog

Rotoworld Best Bets

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) leans the Under 53.5 between SMU and Florida State:

"Both squads will be focused on establishing the run, which will bleed the clock. Florida State has a dynamic ground game duo with Ashton Daniels and Ousmane Kromah, plus Samuel Singleton and Quintrevion Wisner as running back depth. SMU has an explosive offense with Jennings at the helm, but the Mustangs should take a few steps back offensively replacing running backs TJ Harden (NFL free agent) and Chris Johnson Jr. (Clemson). The Under would be the way I'd go in this game."

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