Baylor vs Auburn Prediction, Picks & Early Odds: College Football Week 1

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The Auburn Tigers will start the Alex Golesh era as a touchdown favorite when they take on the Baylor Bears in Georgia on Saturday afternoon.

The Tigers should be able to move the ball with their imported South Florida offense, and I'm taking them to outscore the Bears in a high-scoring affair for my Baylor vs. Auburn predictions.

 Keep reading to see my early college football picks for Saturday, Sept. 5.

Baylor vs Auburn predictions

Pick	Probability
Auburn -7.5	46%
Over 58.5	50%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.

Early Baylor vs Auburn spread pick: Auburn -7.5

Kalshi probability: 46%

The Auburn Tigers are playing the Baylor Bears to open the season for the second straight year. In last year's matchup, Auburn walked away with a 38-24 win in Waco, and this time they have something of a home-field advantage at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.

Auburn has a new head coach in Alex Golesh, who led the South Florida Bulls to a 9-4 record last year. It's widely expected that he'll bring his high-tempo, highly effective offensive schemes to Auburn after the Bulls scored 40.5 ppg last season.

Golesh is bringing much of his offensive talent over from South Florida this year, so Tigers fans can expect a similar output this season — adjusted for the step up against SEC defenses, of course. That includes quarterback Byrum Brown, who threw for 3,158 yards and 28 touchdowns in 2025 while rushing for 14 more scores.

Will that mean a potential playoff run for Auburn? We'll need to see them against elite competition before that becomes clear, but they should have the talent and approach that allows them to beat weaker opponents. That includes a Baylor team coming off a 5-7 season and starting DJ Lagway at quarterback, who was inconsistent in two years with the Florida Gators. 

The Tigers have more than enough gas to pull away against the Bears, and I'm backing them at -7.5 points.

Early Baylor vs Auburn total pick: Over 58.5

Kalshi probability: 50%

The Auburn offense is going to be entertaining to watch, if nothing else. With Brown at quarterback and most of his wide receiver corps also coming over from South Florida, there's every reason to think the Tigers will push the ball down the field with authority.

Perhaps more importantly for bettors, they'll also do it at an incredibly fast pace. That means more possessions for both Auburn and its opponents, and more points across the board. The Tigers have a veteran, talented defensive front, but the run-and-gun style will make it hard for any defense — including their own unit — to stay fresh and lock down either offense for 60 minutes.

Baylor's not going to do much to slow down the Auburn attack, either. The Bears allowed 32.6 ppg last season, while scoring 31.1 ppg themselves. Lagway brings potential NFL talent to the quarterback position, even if he's created nearly as many turnovers as touchdowns, and there are still question marks all over the Baylor defense, so we're likely to see more of the same from the Bears in 2026.

This is going to be a fast-paced game with the offenses flying up and down the field from start to finish. That has me backing the Over up to 59.5 points.

Baylor vs Auburn odds

• Baylor vs Auburn spread: Auburn -7.5
• Baylor vs Auburn moneyline: Baylor 29%, Auburn 71%
• Baylor vs Auburn Over/Under: 58.5

How to watch Baylor vs Auburn

• Baylor vs Auburn matchup
• Date: Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026, 3:30 p.m. ET
• City: Atlanta, GA
  
• Venue: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
• TV: ABC

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