Why Tennessee football fans, Josh Heupel should expect the unexpected in 2026

Let’s take stock of Tennessee football's expectations in the 2026 season. And let’s do it before those expectations change because they certainly will.

On offense, the Vols have talent and experience at running back, wide receiver and offensive line. It feels safe betting on their success. But there’s a big question at quarterback because starter Faizon Brandon is a true freshman.

On defense, coordinator Jim Knowles has a master plan that will reveal itself as the season goes along. But that side of the ball is stocked with unknowns because the scheme changed and transfers fill the depth chart. Almost nothing would be surprising about UT's defense.

Now forget everything you just read and buckle up for a wild season of discovery as the 18th-ranked Vols prepare to play Furman (1-0) on Sept. 5 (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+/SEC Network+) at Neyland Stadium.

Where UT will succeed or fail is a mystery. Last season’s results should’ve taught us that.

And to some degree, we can count coach Josh Heupel in the dark, as well. After all, no preseason can truly reveal what a team will do when the lights come on in games.

“We’re going to find out a lot through this 12-game journey,” Heupel said during his Week 1 press conference on Aug. 31. “You’ll find more out about mental (and) physical toughness, emotional toughness, resiliency, next-play mindset (of the team).”

Case in point, the Vols looked strong to start last season. But they "wilted," as offensive line coach Glen Elarbee said, late in the season, losing three of their last five games. Heupel didn't know that team would struggle with adversity and conditioning like that, but he learned it during the season.

How 2025 Tennessee team taught us to expect the unexpected

Little is guaranteed in a college football season, and Tennessee’s 2025 team taught that lesson well.

Recall the outlook of the Vols a year ago.

There were big questions. Can UT pass the ball efficiently with new quarterback Joey Aguilar? Can unproven wide receivers break out? Can the Vols run the ball after replacing SEC Offensive Player of the Year Dylan Sampson?

They were all answered affirmatively. Aguilar led the SEC in passing yards. UT had one of the best wide receiver groups in the nation. And DeSean Bishop rushed for 1,000 yards.

There also seemed to be safe bets heading into the 2025 season.

The defense would be strong and sound under defensive coordinator Tim Banks, who returned experience from an elite squad the year before. And kicker Max Gilbert would be almost a sure thing on field goals.

Those expecations were dead wrong. As it turned out, the defense struggled so mightily that Banks and most of the defensive coaching staff were fired. And Gilbert missed critical field goals that led to him transferring to Arkansas.

From a preseason perspective, it was believed that UT would lose games in 2025 because of questionable elements on offense and win games because of a strong defense and clutch kicking.

But that narrative flipped by the third game of the season, a 44-41 overtime loss to Georgia. Aguilar and explosive receivers torched a stout Georgia defense. But UT’s defense gave up 502 yards. And Gilbert missed the game-winning kick.

And that narrative never flipped back to preseason expectations. It was a reminder that the makeup of a team is far from a finished product when the season begins. In fact, reality can turn out to be the exact opposite.

Remember that as the 2026 season plays out.

Why these Vols are mysterious in an entertaining way

How the Vols win or lose games is a big mystery. But how many games they win hasn’t been that hard to predict.

Each season, Knox News makes game-by-game predictions with a win total. Heupel’s regular-season record at UT is 43-17. Our preseason predictions over those five seasons combined for a 42-18 mark.

Heupel’s teams have exceeded expectations in three of his five seasons.

In 2021, Heupel inherited a mess left by the Jeremy Pruitt recruiting scandal. But he made the Vols immediately competitive and exciting, posting a 7-6 record.

In 2022, Heupel had the best offense in college football, almost made a four-team playoff and won the Orange Bowl with an 11-2 record.

In 2024, Heupel led the Vols to a 10-3 record and a spot in the 12-team playoff. And he did it with an unexpected formula featuring an elite defense and Sampson’s record-breaking rushing.

Tennessee fell short of expectations in 2023. The Vols went 9-4 with a Citrus Bowl win. But they lost convincingly to Florida, Alabama, Missouri and Georgia – taking a sizable step backward from the previous year.

And the 2025 season was in its own category. An 8-5 record, capped by an ugly home loss to Vanderbilt and Music City Bowl loss to Illinois, looked like a failed season. But when quarterback Nico Iamaleava transferred to UCLA after spring practice, it added a degree of difficulty to everything that happened after that.

As for the 2026 season, most betting lines set Tennessee’s win total around 7.5 victories this season. By that measure, a slightly optimistic outlook puts the Vols at 8-4.

If the 2026 Vols surpass that number, it’ll be better than most expect. But how they get there is anyone’s guess.

Suspense is the fun part of any college football season. And with new coaches, transfers in key positions and a freshman quarterback, Tennessee carries as much mystery as any team.

Adam Sparks is the Tennessee football beat reporter. Email adam.sparks@knoxnews.com. X, formerly known as Twitter@AdamSparks. Support strong local journalism by subscribing atknoxnews.com/subscribe.

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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Why Tennessee football fans, Josh Heupel should expect the unexpected in 2026