Projected Fourth College Football Playoff Top 25 Rankings

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The top of the College Football Playoff rankings is all that anyone really cares about, and rightly so, but any movement this week depends on whether or not credit is given for blowout wins in a down week for big games.

Can Notre Dame move up after its destruction of Syracuse, and will Oregon get any extra hugs for its dominant performance over USC?

And what about the Group of Five teams? Tulane was the only one ranked last week, but could Navy, James Madison, or even San Diego State make an appearance? For one more week, the guess is no, but this week was harder than usual to get these close to the pin.

We take another flier on what the College Football Playoff rankings might be on Tuesday night. | @PeteFiutak

Projected Fourth CFP Top 25: Will Anyone Get Credit for Dominant Wins?

25 Missouri Tigers

Last Week CFP Ranking: 22
Record: 7-4
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 8-4
Best Win: South Carolina 29-20
Worst Loss: Vanderbilt 17-10

The committee won't – at least, it shouldn't – punish Missouri for losing a defensive battle at Oklahoma. There's a chance it could fall out of the top 25, but it should hang around by a thread.

24 SMU Mustangs

Last Week CFP Ranking: Not Ranked
Record: 8-3
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Best Win: Miami 26-20
Worst Loss: Baylor 48-45

The losses to Baylor, TCU, and Wake Forest aren't great, but the wins over Miami, Louisville, and Clemson over the last month help make up for it. It's not a consistent team, but after rolling past the Cardinals, the Mustangs push into the top 25.

23 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Last Week CFP Ranking: 16
Record: 9-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Best Win: Wake Forest 30-29
Worst Loss: NC State 48-36

There still isn't an amazing win on the resume, and now the close call against Syracuse two weeks ago looks even worse after the horrible early performance in the big home loss to …

22 Pitt Panthers

Last Week CFP Ranking: Not Ranked
Record: 8-3
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 8-4
Best Win: Georgia Tech 42-28
Worst Loss: West Virginia 31-24

Usually, we have a good handle on what the College Football Playoff is thinking, but projecting this spot this week is a problem.

The blowout loss to Notre Dame isn't awful, and the losses to West Virginia and Louisville are well in the past. Blasting away on Georgia Tech should get the Panthers here.

21 Arizona State Sun Devils

Last Week CFP Ranking: 25
Record: 8-3
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 8-4
Best Win: Navy 31-17
Worst Loss: USF 63-36

It's a guess that the blowout win at Colorado will be just enough to launch the Sun Devils up a few spots. The win over Texas Tech will carry a little more weight now that the team appears to have settled in.

20 Tulane Green Wave

Last Week CFP Ranking: 24
Record: 9-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 11-2
Best Win: Northwestern 23-3
Worst Loss: UTSA 48-26

This is ridiculously too high. Tulane isn't one of the 20 best teams in college football, but the committee will fall for the shiny record and wins over Duke and Northwestern in the early part of the season.

19 Tennessee Volunteers

Last Week CFP Ranking: 20
Record: 8-3
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Best Win: Mississippi State 41-34
Worst Loss: Oklahoma 33-27

The ranking doesn't matter too much to Tennessee, other than the honor of potentially being in the final 15 if it beats Vanderbilt. For this week, it'll get a little bit of credit for a dominant brand-name win at Florida.

18 Virginia Cavaliers

Last Week CFP Ranking: 19
Record: 9-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-3
Best Win: Louisville 30-27
Worst Loss: Wake Forest 13-6

The ranking doesn't matter. Beat Virginia Tech, get into the ACC Championship with a shot at getting into the playoff. Lose one of the next two games, and out.

17 Michigan Wolverines

Last Week CFP Ranking: 18
Record: 9-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Best Win: Washington 24-7
Worst Loss: USC 31-13

Don't worry a single solitary lick about where Michigan is ranked. If it beats No. 1 Ohio State, yeah, at 10-2, it will make a massive move up and be deep in the discussion for one of the top 11 spots.

16 USC Trojans

Last Week CFP Ranking: 15
Record: 8-3
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Best Win: Michigan 45-31
Worst Loss: Illinois 34-32

This is the test. USC lost to an obviously great Oregon team on the road, and it shouldn't be punished too much, if at all, for it.

The committee will want to move up Michigan, but it can't be ahead of the Trojans after losing 31-13 in the head-to-head battle.

15 Texas Longhorns

Last Week CFP Ranking: 17
Record: 8-3
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 8-4
Best Win: Oklahoma 23-6
Worst Loss: Florida 29-21

Will the College Football Playoff fix its massive mistake? Texas beat Vanderbilt and should be ranked higher, but the committee isn't great at readjusting after screwing up. However, Texas will move up a few spots.

14 Vanderbilt Commodores

Last Week CFP Ranking: 14
Record: 9-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 9-3
Best Win: Missouri 17-10
Worst Loss: Texas 34-31

The committee will blow it again. The Commodores were ranked way too high from the start, and the 45-17 blowout win over a mediocre Kentucky team will keep compounding the error.

13 Miami Hurricanes

Last Week CFP Ranking: 13
Record: 9-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-2
Best Win: Notre Dame 27-24
Worst Loss: Louisville 24-21

The Hurricanes need a minor miracle now. They should be ahead of Utah and BYU, but they won't get nearly enough respect for just how good they are. They could do some damage in the CFP – Utah and BYU, probably couldn't.

12 Utah Utes

Last Week CFP Ranking: 12
Record: 9-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-2
Best Win: Cincinnati 45-10
Worst Loss: Texas Tech 34-10

Ehhhhhh, fine. The performance against Kansas State wasn't good enough to keep the Utes this high, but they'll continue to get way too much credit for the win over Arizona State.

11 BYU Cougars

Last Week CFP Ranking: 11
Record: 10-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 11-2
Best Win: Utah 24-21
Worst Loss: Texas Tech 29-7

For all of the preemptive whining and complaining from nervous Cougar fans, it's this simple. Beat UCF, beat Texas Tech, and get into the CFP.

There's not enough overall meat on the schedule bone to get in at 11-2, though. 

(Miami should be ahead of BYU, and it won't be close.)

10 Alabama Crimson Tide

Last Week CFP Ranking: 10
Record: 9-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-3
Best Win: Georgia 24-21
Worst Loss: Florida State 31-17

There can't be a misfire against Auburn. The committee likes the Tide enough – the wins over Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee are strong – to keep it in the top ten. No, it's not moving it out for BYU or Miami.

9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Last Week CFP Ranking: 9
Record: 9-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-2
Best Win: USC 34-24
Worst Loss: Miami 27-24

If Oklahoma didn't have a win as good as the one over Missouri, the Irish would have likely moved up into the top eight – and in range of a first round home playoff game – after the 70-7 destruction of Syracuse.

8 Oklahoma Sooners

Last Week CFP Ranking: 8
Record: 9-2
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 10-2
Best Win: Alabama 23-21
Worst Loss: Texas 23-6

The committee liked Missouri enough to put it at 22 last week. It won't move the Sooners out of the eight after a terrific defensive performance in the 17-6 win.

7 Ole Miss Rebels

Last Week CFP Ranking: 6
Record: 10-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 11-1
Best Win: Oklahoma 34-26
Worst Loss: Georgia 43-35

It's sad that this marvelous season has been totally swallowed up by the Lane Kiffin ridiculousness. Here's the insane part about this – that's a factor for the College Football Playoff committee.

If Kiffin announces he's leaving for LSU – or Florida, or wherever – before the playoff, that's taken into account, just like the loss of a starting quarterback would be.

6 Oregon Ducks

Last Week CFP Ranking: 7
Record: 10-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 11-1
Best Win: USC 42-27
Worst Loss: Indiana 30-20

That was a win over a USC team good enough to be ranked in the CFP top 15 last week. The committee should put the Ducks higher, but moving them one spot up will be enough respect for now.

5 Texas Tech Red Raiders

Last Week CFP Ranking: 5
Record: 10-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 12-1
Best Win: BYU 29-7
Worst Loss: Arizona State 26-22

They haven't beaten anyone better than blah outside of the Big 12, but they'll almost certainly be in the top three – at worst four – if they're the 12-1 Big 12 champ.

4 Georgia Bulldogs

Last Week CFP Ranking: 4
Record: 10-1
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 11-1
Best Win: Ole Miss 43-35
Worst Loss: Alabama 24-21

There's an argument to be made that the Bulldogs are playing better than anyone outside of Ohio State right now. Destroy Georgia Tech, and they'll almost certainly be no worse than five if they don't play in the SEC Championship.

3 Texas A&M Aggies

Last Week CFP Ranking: 3
Record: 11-0
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 13-0
Best Win: Notre Dame 41-40
Worst Performance: South Carolina 31-30

There's nitpicking to do about whether or not the Aggies deserve to be in the top two, but if they win the next two games, they will be.

2 Indiana Hoosiers

Last Week CFP Ranking: 2
Record: 11-0
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 12-1
Best Win: Oregon 30-20
Worst Performance: Penn State 27-24

Okay, Hoosiers. Get past Purdue, and then it's on. The win at Oregon looks even better now.

1 Ohio State Buckeyes

Last Week CFP Ranking: 1
Record: 11-0
Predicted Final Regular Season Record: 13-0
Best Win: Texas 14-7
Worst Performance: Washington 24-6

No one will argue with this, but the Buckeyes haven't played a team that's a lock to go bowling since October 11th, although Penn State will probably get there. Now the season really begins.

This story was originally reported by College Football News on Nov 23, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add College Football News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

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