ACC Championship picks: Predicting 1 favorite and 1 sleeper for the 2026 title

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The Atlantic Coast Conference, a 17-team league that has two members less than an hour from the Pacific Ocean, one in Dallas, and an affiliate in South Bend, IN, that it allows to pop in from time to time. What a beautiful mess.

Last year’s ACC’s title race triggered total chaos across the board as a five-way tie for second place allowed five-loss Duke to get into the title game due to having the highest conference opponent win percentage of the group. A potential victory by the Blue Devils in the championship game was feared to potentially leave the league outside of the College Football Playoff outright, but surely favorite Virginia would handle bus…aaaannnd it lost in overtime. Wonderful. As a result, Sun Belt title winner James Madison got an autobid into the College Football Playoff as the fifth-highest ranked conference champion, but the committee ended up doing the ACC a solid by vaulting Miami into the field over Notre Dame…which in itself led to some bad blood and hurt feelings. Again, what a beautiful mess.

The league is moving to a nine-game conference schedule this year and has updated its tiebreaker policies to avoid the chaos of 2025. But when you factor in the fact that five teams will only play an eight-game league schedule, the door is wide open for things to get funky once again in late November.

Miami is the overwhelming favorite to win the ACC in 2026 after making it all the way to the CFP National Championship Game last season. The program has achieved back-to-back 10-win campaigns for the first time since the glory years of the early 2000’s and its roster is one of just a few around the country that exceeds $40 million. After that, it’s a giant race to see who could potentially challenge and upend the Hurricanes for the league crown. Could it be SMU, who returns multi-year starter Kevin Jennings at quarterback? Could it be Virginia, who’s already gotten off to a fast start by whomping NC State in Week 0? Could James Franklin shock everyone in his first year at Virginia Tech? Could potential Heisman Trophy hopeful Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele get Cal into the mix? Everything thing that I just mentioned is on the board because again, the ACC…what a beautiful mess.

2026 ACC Championship Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

ACC Championship pick: Miami Hurricanes

Isn’t it still kind of crazy that Miami has never won the ACC? This historic powerhouse has been in the league since 2004 and has not worn the crown a single time. Wake Forest has broken through in that period of time!

Anyway, the ‘U’ is back and fully functioning as a national power again after coming just a touchdown short of a national championship in 2025. Their metrics were excellent across the board, especially on defense, finishing No. 3 in adjusted EPA and No. 7 in defensive SP+. It sure does help a lot when you have first-round draft picks in Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor causing mayhem up front with Keionte Scott and Jacoby Thomas patrolling the backfield. The ‘Canes were also efficient on offense with new face of the program Malachi Toney breaking out in the slot and Mark Fletcher Jr. posting just under 1,200 rushing yards on the ground. But let’s just say that the attack had a ceiling with Carson Beck operating the controls at quarterback.

So what do you do to upgrade at the most important position on the field? I don’t know, how about simply jacking the ACC champions for their quarterback? Darian Mensah is Miami’s most notable portal acquisition this season after posting just under 4,000 passing yards and a program-record 40 touchdowns for Duke last year. He’s bringing 1,000-yard wideout Cooper Barkate with him from Durham to Coral Gables and the trio of him, Toney, and Fletcher is a lot of firepower to work with at Hard Rock Stadium. Of course, the offensive line took a huge blow with the departure of consensus All-American Francis Mauigoa to the NFL, but five-star true freshman could help soften the blow by being thrown into the fire off the rip. And while Bain and Mesidore will be sorely missed on the defensive front, Damon Wilson II is expected to be a high impact edge transfer after recording nine sacks at Missouri last season.

Miami’s schedule is extremely manageable with an October 3 trip to Clemson being its toughest test in conference and its November 4 trip to No. 4 Notre Dame being its only game against a preseason AP Top 25 opponent. Of course, this is the ACC where weird stuff happens all the time and we’ve certainly seen Mario Cristobal bungle winnable games in the past. But the way this ‘Canes team is assembled, it may finally be immune to that chaos *famous last words*.

ACC Championship sleeper pick: Pitt Panthers

You know, I’ve already talked ad nauseam about the chaos and weirdness of the ACC already. So doesn’t this feel like a spot where someone like Pitt just jumps into the title game? It nearly happened last year!

The Panthers had a middling 2-2 start to the season a year ago before benching quarterback Eli Holstein in favor of Mason Heintschel. The true freshman proceeded to lead the Panthers on a five-game winning streak and into that crowded title picture before getting roasted by Miami in the final game of the regular season. There’s plenty of promise for the rising sophomore in his second year of OC Kade Bell’s system and he’ll have some weapons to work with un running backs Ja’Kyrian Turner and La’Vell Wright, as well as receivers Malik Knight and Cataurus Hicks. Of course, defense is the calling card for Pat Narduzzi and his Panthers quietly produced one of the best run stopping units in the entire country, ranking fourth in EPA per rush while holding opponents to 3.64 yards per attempt. Unfortunately, top tackler and overall game-wrecker Rasheem Biles is off to Texas, but they could still recreate him in the aggregate with the likes of Braylan Lovelace and Jimmy Scott returning to the front seven.

Pitt’s schedule is backloaded with trips to Miami, Louisville, and Cal, so it’s imperative for Narduzzi’s squad to handle business on the front end. But hey, if Heintschel can make a giant leap as a sophomore, the Panthers could once again be right be in the mix by Thanksgiving.

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