Florida State vs. SMU prediction, odds, pick for college football Week 1
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It is Week 1 of the college football season, as Florida State football hosts SMU football. This is the first game of the year for SMU, as Florida State comes in 1-0. It is time to continue the NCAA Football odds series with an SMU-Florida State prediction and pick.
SMU enters the game ranked 19th in the AP Poll and 20th in the Coaches Poll. Rhett Lashlee is moving into his fifth season with the Mustangs and has been great as the head coach. He is 38-16 with the team and brought SMU to the playoffs in 2024. They finished 9-4 on the season last year, but had some big losses. Heading into the final week of the regular season, SMU was in a win-and-in situation for the conference championship game. They lost 38-35 to Cal, which led them to the Holiday Bowl against Arizona. SMU won the game 24-19.
Meanwhile, Florida State is unranked. After starting 3-0 in 2025, they lost the next four and finished the year 5-7. This year, the Seminoles have already begun play, starting up in Week 0. Florida State faced off with New Mexico State in Week 0. It was not the start they had hoped for, struggling much of the first half against the Aggies. Florida State led 10-7 late in the second quarter until scoring with 36 seconds left in the half. They would go on to win the game 34-17.
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This will be just the second meeting between the schools. Florida State lost 42-16 to SMU in Dallas.
SMU vs. Florida State Odds
SMU: -3 (-108)
Florida State: +3 (-112)
Over: 53.5 (-110)
Under: 53.5 (-110)
SMU vs. Florida State Key Injuries
SMU- RB Link Rhodes (Out), OL Abel Hoopii (Out), RB Cam Rhodes (Questionable), TE Markus Uter (Questionable)
Florida State- DB Karson Hobbs (Out), WR Devin Carter (Doubtful), S Jordan Crutchfield (Questionable), DB Chuck Kennon (Questionable)
SMU vs. Florida State Betting Trends
– SMU was 6-7 against the spread in 2025, but covered in four of their last five games.
– SMU covered the spread on the road two of six times.
– The under hit in nine of SMU’s games last season.
– Florida State was 5-7 against the spread in 2025. They did not cover against New Mexico State.
– Florida State was 1-2 against the spread as an underdog last year, but did not cover as an underdog on the road.
– The over hit in six of Florida State’s 12 games last year, but just once in the last six games of 2025. The under hit against New Mexico State.
Keys to SMU vs. Florida State matchup
Kevin Jennings is expected to be 100 percent healthy for the opener. The play of Jennings will be a major key for SMU. He passed for 3,641 yards last year with 26 touchdowns, but he also threw 13 interceptions. He ran some, running 70 times for 54 yards, but it was for 285 before sack adjustment. He also scored four times on the ground. Mike Norvell, the Florida State head coach, knows they cannot fully stop Jennings, but his ability to extend plays is key. While he is extending plays, he has to be careful of turnovers. Jennings threw a bunch of interceptions last year, including at least one in every loss last year. In games he did not throw an interception, SMU won every time.
On defense, it all starts in the front seven. Ousmane Kromah is a solid running back, and dual-threat quarterback Ashton Daniels can make big plays for Florida State. Alexander Kilgore and Brandon Booker are the starting linebacker duo that will be tasked with slowing down the running game. They are great in gap coverage and combined for over 125 tackles. Meanwhile, Brandon Miyazono will be relied on to be the pass rush to help out the secondary, replacing some of their top players.
For Florida State, they have to establish the ground game, as they did in Week 0. Kromah ran 14 times for 115 yards and a touchdown, while Samuel Singleton Jr. ran nine times for 42 yards and a score. He also brought in four receptions for 54 yards and a score. Further, Daniels ran for 30 yards and a touchdown. This put the team in solid situations on third down, allowing them to go 8-14 on third-down conversions.
Regardless, the defense must be better against the pass. Florida State allowed New Mexico State to pass for 272 yards in the first game of the season and also gave up 18 first downs. The Aggies were also able to convert 10 of 17 third downs against the Seminoles last week. The secondary struggled with communication, which could be an issue against a Rhett Lashlee offense. The offense uses a fast-paced scheme and quick pre-snap shifts, which often get the secondary out of position.
SMU vs. Florida State Prediction and Pick
Florida State already has a full game of experience under its belt, something SMU does not have. The game experience could be a massive difference between the two teams. Not only does Florida State have game experience, but SMU walks into a hostile environment and has to play a conference game to begin their season. Kevin Jennings is said to be fully healthy, but he missed time at camp due to a finger injury. Florida State is going to lean on their physical run game, allowing them to bleed the play clock and shorten the game. While some explosive plays are going to happen from SMU, there are not going to be enough of them for there to be a ton of points in the game.
Final SMU vs. Florida State Prediction and Pick: Florida State +3 (-112) and Under 53.5 (-110)
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