MC&J: Week 1 in college football has Ohio State favored by half a hundred

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Last year ATS: 154-138 (80-73 National, 74-65 B1G)

Welcome back to another year of MC&J!

Last year was another successful season, and we hope this year brings even more cashes. As always, I like to say thanks at the beginning of each season for dealing with my ramblings the previous year and still coming back. Hopefully my picks help to add a little extra to your wallet.

The first full week of the college football season is always a bit like throwing darts. You think you know what you’re doing but then things don’t land anywhere close to your intended target.

Not only are we flying blind, there are a lot of games with massive spreads. As the season goes on and we don’t have quite as buy games, things will tighten up. If things start a little slow this week don’t lose faith, since next week’s schedule looks like it has a lot more intrigue.

National Games

Clemson v. No. 11 LSU (-10.5) – Saturday 9/5 7:30 p.m. ET – ABC

Can both teams lose? Dabo Swinney and Lane Kiffin are two of the most evil coaches currently in college football. It’s a shame one of these teams has to win this game.

LSU certainly has the advantage at quarterback, as they brought in Sam Leavitt from Arizona State, while Clemson will look to Christopher Vizzina to replace Cade Klubnik behind center.

The biggest issue Clemson is going to have in this game is protecting Vizzina, as they have an offensive line with less than 40 combined starts. Not only will the line have to try and slow down LSU’s defenders, they’ll also have to deal with the raucous environment in Baton Rouge under the lights.

Right now it feels like LSU has more pieces than Clemson, which is why Kiffin’s team will end up pulling away in this one.

LSU 31, Clemson 17

No. 24 Louisville v. No. 9 Ole Miss (-6.5) – Sunday 9/6 7:30 p.m. ET – ABC

Sunday night’s contest between Louisville and Ole Miss has all the makings of being the best game of the weekend.

The Rebels return quarterback Trinidad Chambliss and Kewan Lacy from a team that went to the semifinals of the College Football Playoff last year. After it looked like his college career was over, Chambliss was granted a 43rd year of college eligibility during the offseason, which is why he is a contender for the Heisman, and Ole Miss is primed for another CFP run.

Looking to join them in the playoff is Louisville, who brought in Ohio State backup quarterback Lincoln Kienholz during the offseason. The Cardinals have the look of a team who could push Miami for the ACC crown this season.

I think Ole Miss might be a little bit overrated and Louisville might be a little bit underrated. While a lot of games are likely to have not much intrigue this weekend, I’ll go with the Cardinals to spring the upset on Sunday night.

Louisville 38, Ole Miss 34

No. 19 SMU (-3.5) v. Florida State – Monday 9/7 7:30 p.m. ET – ESPN

Since I’m a sicko, I watched too much of Florida State’s game against New Mexico State on Saturday. I was not all that impressed with the Seminoles in their victory.

While Mike Norvell’s team had a number of guys who were able to run the football on the Aggies, I’m just not convinced quarterback Ashton Daniels is going to do enough to help Florida State be all that success. Daniels has a bunch of college football experience, but soon enough it is going to be time for him to get a real job.

Another thing I took away from Florida State’s win last week is their defense isn’t all that good. New Mexico State had a transfer from Furman who looked good against the Seminoles, which should make Florida State fans shudder when thinking about what Kevin Jennings could do on Monday night.

The Mustangs are a real threat to make this year’s playoff, and I think they’ll show why in Tallahassee.

SMU 33, Florida State 20

B1G Games

Ball State v. No. 1 Ohio State (-50.5) – Saturday 9/5 12:30 p.m. ET – BTN

If any other team was favored by 50 points I would have my score prediction for the game in the Rapid Fire Picks section of MC&J. Since this is an Ohio State site, I have to give at least a little write-up on Saturday’s game against Ball State.

We all know what lies ahead for Ohio State this year. Opening the season as a top-ranked team, an insanely tough schedule, as well as Heisman aspirations for Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith. Saturday’s opener is just a tune-up for next week’s massive contest in Austin against Texas.

While Ryan Day and new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith are going to want to get Sayin, Smith, and the rest of the Buckeye offense off to a strong start, they also won’t want to give away too much before next Saturday’s tilt with the Longhorns.

Over the last three years Ball State has played Georgia, Miami (FL), Purdue, and Auburn. Against those four teams the Cardinals have failed to score more than a field goal.

Even though the Buckeyes have a lot to replace on defense this year, it’s hard to imagine Ball State reaching double digits in this one. The Cardinals will have a new starting quarterback in Keldric Luster, but it’s likely to be a rude debut for the SMU and Texas State transfer.

Beating a team by more than half a hundred is tough, especially when Ohio State won’t want to give too much away ahead of next week’s game against Texas. I see the Buckeyes winning big, but falling just short of covering.

Ohio State 49, Ball State 3

Boise State v. No. 2 Oregon (-24.5) – Saturday 9/5 3:30 p.m. ET – CBS

Unlike Ohio State, Oregon will be planning a team that has the capability of pushing them in the season opener.

Just two years ago the Broncos only lost by a field goal to Oregon in Eugene. I’m not sure this year’s game will be quite as close, but I don’t think it will be a blowout either. The Broncos have Maddux Madsen returning at quarterback, along with an experienced offensive line.

Where Boise State is going to have issues is keeping Oregon from scoring. Dante Moore is a favorite to win the Heisman Trophy after deciding to returning to Oregon for another season. The Ducks also have extremely talented players at running back and wide receiver to compliment Moore.

This feels like the type of game where the Ducks are in control throughout, they just don’t blow the Broncos off the field.

Oregon 41, Boise State 21

Wisconsin v. No. 4 Notre Dame (-20.5) – Sunday 9/6 7:30 p.m. ET – NBC

Had Luke Fickell played his cards right he could have been coaching Notre Dame. Instead, Fickell decided to stay at Cincinnati for another yet and settled for the Wisconsin job.

Since arriving in Madison, Fickell hasn’t had much success, compiling a 17-21 record since taking over. It feels like if the Badgers don’t make any significant progess this season then Fickell will be looking for another job.

Fickell’s former assistant Marcus Freeman will be on the opposite sideline, looking to lead the Fighting Irish back to the College Football Playoff after they narrowly missed out last year.

Taking the snaps for Notre Dame will be C.J. Carr, who had a strong first season as starter in 2025. Even though Carr won’t have the services of Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price this year, the Fighting Irish look like one of the strongest teams in the country.

Despite the Badgers playing in Green Bay, I don’t like their chances on Sunday night. Fickell messed with the formula when he arrived at Wisconsin, going more to a passing attack after the Badgers had years of success running the football.

Throwing the football hasn’t worked for Wisconsin and they haven’t added anyone of note in the transfer portal to make me think it’s going to start clicking all of the sudden. Notre Dame wins this one easily.

Notre Dame 37, Wisconsin 13

Rapid Fire Picks

National

Colorado v. Georgia Tech (-6.5) – Thursday 9/3 8:00 p.m. ET – ESPN

Georgia Tech 31, Colorado 27

No. 7 Miami (FL) (-24.5) v. Stanford – Friday 9/4 9:00 p.m. ET – ESPN

Miami (FL) 35, Stanford 17

Baylor v. Auburn (-7.5) – Saturday 9/5 3:30 p.m. ET – ABC

Auburn 38, Baylor 21

Texas State v. No. 5 Texas (-29.5) – Saturday 9/5 3:30 p.m. ET – ESPN

Texas 52, Texas State 13

B1G Games

Massachusetts v. Rutgers (-29.5) – Thursday 9/3 6:00 p.m. ET – BTN

Rutgers 45, Massachusetts 10

Eastern Illinois v. Minnesota (-42.5) – Thursday 9/3 8:00 p.m. ET – Peacock

Minnesota 55, Eastern Illinois 7

UAB v. Illinois (-27.5) – Thursday 9/3 9:00 p.m. ET – BTN

Illinois 41, UAB 17

Indiana State v. Purdue (-36.5) – Friday 9/4 7:00 p.m. ET – BTN

Purdue 49, Indiana State 3

Toledo v. Michigan State (-9.5) – Friday 9/4 8:00 p.m. ET – FS1

Michigan State 34, Toledo 20

Fresno State v. No. 14 USC (-21.5) – Friday 9/4 9:00 p.m. ET – FOX

USC 48, Fresno State 17

North Texas v. No. 6 Indiana (-40.5) – Saturday 9/5 12:00 p.m. ET – FOX

Indiana 66, North Texas 7

Ohio v. Nebraska (-23.5) – Saturday 9/5 12:00 p.m. ET – FS1

Nebraska 41, Ohio 13

Marshall v. No. 18 Penn State (-24.5) – Saturday 9/5 3:30 p.m. ET – FS1

Penn State 38, Marshall 21

Northern Illinois v. No. 22 Iowa (-31.5) – Saturday 9/5 4:15 p.m. ET – BTN

Iowa 45, Northern Illinois 10

Western Michigan v. No. 16 Michigan (-27.5) – Saturday 9/5 7:30 p.m. ET – NBC

Michigan 34, Western Michigan 14

Hampton v. Maryland (-42.5) – Saturday 9/5 8:00 p.m. ET – BTN

Maryland 54, Hampton 7

South Dakota State v. Northwestern (-13.5) – Saturday 9/5 8:00 p.m. ET – BTN

Northwestern 35, South Dakota State 17

UCLA (-1.5) v. California – Saturday 9/5 10:30 p.m. ET – ESPN

UCLA 31, California 24

Washington State v. No. 17 Washington (-23.5) – Sunday 9/6 4:00 p.m. ET – NBC

Washington 45, Washington State 20

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