Big Ten Football: Best Week 1 bets for Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana, Michigan and more

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Welcome to the triumphant return of Betting the Big Ten! As in prior years, we are going to take a stab at giving pick suggestions for each and every Big Ten game each week. Spreads, totals, and even prop bets are fully on the table. We’ve had some decent success in recent years so feel free to play along, but as always, please bet responsibly.

All lines are courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

UMass at Rutgers (-28.5), O/U 53.5, 6 p.m. Thursday

Anyone who’s read this piece in prior years knows I love to make picks based off trends. In Week 1, trends don’t really exist yet, so a lot of my picks are vibes based. In this specific matchup, however, the line is shifting dramatically towards UMass, as it has dropped from 31.5 to 28.5 in a matter of days. While you can still get over four touchdowns, I’d jump on the Minutemen bandwagon.

The pick: UMass +28.5

Eastern Illinois at Minnesota (-42.5), O/U 51.5, 8 p.m. Thursday

Similar to the game above, this line has shifted pretty dramatically over the last week, as it’s dropped from 46 to 42.5. While the spread is still just above a touchdown line, I’d jump on Eastern Illinois while you can.

The pick: Eastern Illinois +42.5

UAB at Illinois (-27.5), O/U 54.5, 9 p.m. Thursday

Bret Bielema has made steady progress as the leader of the Fighting Illini. At home against a bad UAB squad with the unveiling of a new scoreboard is enough for me to give Illinois a bet to start the year.

The pick: Illinois -27.5

Indiana State at Purdue (-35.5), O/U 55.5, 7 p.m. Friday

Purdue may be the worst team in the Big Ten this season. However, this line has been shifting in the Boilermakers favor all week, with it nearing 40 before settling back down. I don’t love having to get over the five-touchdown mark, but I’m willing to give Purdue a shot.

The pick: Purdue -35.5

Toledo at Michigan State (-10), O/U 46.5, 8 p.m. Friday

We don’t yet know if Pat Fitzgerald was a good hire for the Spartans or not. However, I was stunned to see the spread this small in an early-season matchup with the Toledo Rockets. Something seems to be brewing tomorrow night. However, I don’t have the guts to take Toledo with only 10 points. Instead, I’ll predit an ugly slog of a game and take the under.

The pick: Under 46.5

Fresno State at USC (-22.5), O/U 51.5, 9 p.m. Friday

USC’s crowd was laughable in Week 0 against San Jose State, but it’s offense was firing on all cylinders. I expected to see a surprisingly angry USC team playing in front of a full house as their fans look to redeem themselves from last week’s fiasco.

The pick: USC -22.5

North Texas at Indiana (-40.5), O/U 56.5, Noon Saturday

The Hoosiers will be celebrating their national title at home on Saturday in front of what is sure to be a packed house. While I’m not a believer in Josh Hoover, I do think that Indiana’s talent across the board is vastly superior to North Texas. Until they give me reason to doubt that defense, I’m going to continually pick the Hoosiers.

The pick: Indiana -40.5

Ohio at Nebraska (-23.5), O/U 46.5, Noon Saturday

The spread here has oscillated back and forth all week between 23.5 and 24.5. Nebraska will be fielding essentially a brand new offense with Dylan Raiola out the door to be the backup in Oregon. I’m not impressed with the Cornhusker’s incoming transfer portal class, but 23.5 is too tight for me to go with Ohio. Instead, I’ll take the under.

The pick: Under 46.5

Ball State at Ohio State (-50.5), O/U 55.5, 12:30 p.m. Saturday

Sadly, Ohio State always seems to cover against overmatched opponents at home. This one will be over early.

The pick: Ohio State -50.5

Boise State at Oregon (-24.5), O/U 51.5, 3:30 p.m. Saturday

True college football junkies know this is one of the more intriguing games in Week 1. Boise State has legitimate College Football Playoff (CFP) aspirations. When these two teams met in 2024, Oregon escaped with a narrow, 37-34 victory. While I like both Boise State and Oregon this year, I expect the Ducks to be more prepared for a dogfight this year than they were two years ago.

The pick: Oregon -24.5

Marshall at Penn State (-24.5), O/U 52.5, 3:30 p.m. Saturday

Matt Campbell imported dang near his entire Iowa State roster to Penn State. The Nittany Lions are a darkhorse contender for the CFP solely because of how easy Penn State’s schedule is. With that said, don’t overlook this Marshall team. There’s a reason the spread is only 24.5. I’m going to go out on a limb here and take the Thundering Herd.

The pick: Marshall +24.5

Northern Illinois at Iowa (-31.5), O/U 44.5, 4:15 p.m. Saturday

Iowa is Iowa yet again this year with what should be a stellar offensive line and an above-average defense. In shocking news to no one, Iowa’s biggest issue is yet again the quarterback position. Without a reliable starter to turn to, I’m very nervous about Iowa winning by 30+ against anyone. Iowa has a good team, but I don’t think it is built to pull away from bad opponents.

The pick: Northern Illinois +31.5

Western Michigan at Michigan (-27.5), O/U 49.5, 7:30 p.m. Saturday

Make no mistake, this Western Michigan team is a solid team by MAC standards. The Bro cos return a decent amount of production and aren’t a rollover team such as UTEP a few weeks later for the Wolverines. However, they are weak at defensive tackle. A Michigan team with a much improved offensive line and a two-headed monster at running back should have no trouble running the ball early and often.

The pick: Michigan -27.5

Hampton at Maryland (-45.5), O/U 56.5, 8 p.m. Saturday

Mike Locksley could be coaching for his job in 2026. The easy schedule helps, but I expect Locksley to do everything in his power to score as many points as he can against anyone.

The pick: Maryland -45.5

South Dakota State at Northwestern (-13.5), O/U 46.5, 8 p.m. Saturday

I came into this week fully expecting myself to bet against Northwestern. Despite the Wildcats’ new fancy stadium, which will be opened and unveiled later this season, the on the field product is not expected to be very good. However, when I saw the spread was just 13.5, it changed my thinking. I can’t take South Dakota State to stay within two touchdowns of any Big Ten team.

The pick: Northwestern -13.5

UCLA (-1.5) at Cal, O/U 53.5, 10:30 p.m. Saturday

By all accounts, Bob Chesney seems like a good hire at UCLA. Former James Madison coaches tend to work out well in the Big Ten. However, drastic coaching changes tend to take a while to get up and going. Curt Cignetti is the exception, not the rule. In the closest spread of the week, I like UCLA to show out for its new coach and get the Chesney era off to a good start.

The pick: UCLA -1.5

Washington State at Washington (-23.5), O/U 51.5, 4 p.m. Sunday

It’s nice to see these two teams continue their rivalry despite being in different conferences. The spread here has shifted from 20.5 up to 23.5 with no sign of stopping. That tells me all I need to know.

The pick: Washington -23.5

Wisconsin vs. Notre Dame (-20.5), O/U 46.5, 7:30 p.m. Sunday in Green Bay, Wisconsin

The last time the Badgers played a neutral site game in Lambeau Field, it went pretty well for them. However, Notre Dame is a whole different animal. The Fighting Irish have some of the best line play in the country both on offense and on defense. Wisconsin won’t be able to match that. Unfortunately, I have to pick Notre Dame here.

The pick: Notre Dame -20.5

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