Big 10 Pick 6: Searching for Single Digits

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Week 1 of the CFB season is full of non-conference matchups between P4 teams and the dregs of FBS or FCS. Few teams are taking risks this season, at least in their season opener, in order to avoid putting an L on their resume for the CFP committee later in the year. As a result, it’s difficult to find many games with single-digit spreads. Nonetheless, there should be some entertaining games and we’ll learn a lot some of the relative strengths and weaknesses of the contenders.

As always, the lines come from the FanDuel Sports Book.

Fresno St @ USC (-22.5)

The Trojans are one of the few teams in this article who have actually taken the field already in 2026. Jayden Maiava beautifully orchestrated Lincoln Riley’s offense to a 35-3 lead before taking their foot off the gas against San Jose St. Matt Entz will debut as Fresno’s new HC. For what it’s worth, the former North Dakota St. HC was my least favorite Bison coach of the National Championship era, so I’m not sold that he’ll be the long-term answer for the Bulldogs.

USC 35 – Fresno St. 14

Boise St @ Oregon (-24.5)

The Broncos have won three of the four matchups in this series and the Ducks’ only win was by three points in ‘24. Maddux Madsen returns at QB and the Boise offense looks solid, but they don’t have the defensive upside to stop a complete offense like Oregon’s.

Oregon 48 – Boise St. 20

UCLA @ Cal (+2.5)

Bob Chesney does not get an opportunity to ease into his tenure at UCLA, opening up with a road game against a traditional rival. Likewise, Tosh Lupoi takes over at Cal, but at least he gets to do it at home. Cal QB JKS is the biggest name on his side the field, but he will need better OL play to reach his potential. Likewise, Nico Iamaleava will lead a group full of James Madison transfers for UCLA. It’s very hard to know who will gel faster, so when in doubt, pick the team at home.

Cal 27 – UCLA 24

Toledo @ Michigan St (-9.5)

It’s not the sexiest matchup, but it could be one of the better games. Toledo is one of the favorites in the MAC this season, though they are rightful underdogs against a Big 10 opponent. Pat Fitzgerald takes over at MSU. If his Northwestern tenure is any guide, a low-scoring, defensive battle could be in the cards. The key player for the Spartans is Alessio Milivojevic, a sophomore who took about half the team’s snaps last year.

Michigan St. 28 – Toledo 17

Wisconsin @ Notre Dame (-20.5)

Notre Dame is an inner-circle National Championship contender, led by returning QB CJ Carr. They replace two high-end RBs, but they are loaded at virtually every position and might have the best defense in the country. Meanwhile, Luke Fickell is struggling to keep his head above water as the Wisconsin HC and might have already been fired if the market had played out differently last year. The Badgers can defend, so it is possible they could eke out a cover, but I think the better bet is Notre Dame going for style points.

Notre Dame 38 – Wisconsin 13

Washington St @ Washington (-23.5)

Opening the season with the Apple Cup is a strange feeling, but so is facing a Washington State roster that looks less like a P4 team every year. New HC Kirby Moore should help get the passing attack back on track after a dip in that area during the Jimmy Rogers era. QB Caden Pinnick, a transfer from Cal-Davis, has upside. While Rogers took many players with him to Iowa State, the offensive line maintained enough continuity that it should not be a glaring problem area. Overall, the offense looks “functional,” but short on receiving talent and prone to turnovers. The Dawgs’ defense looks exciting and promising. I think Kirby Moore can scheme a few good drives, but I also think the Dawgs can create negative plays and force punts on most drives.

And that’s the better side of the WSU team. Most of what Rogers took away is on the defensive side. Trent Bray, a former Oregon St HC, will run the defense. The Dawgs know that a failed HC can excel by going back to the DC role, so I wouldn’t write off Bray. The defense looks specially prone to opponent run offenses. UW has question marks in the RB stable, but the rotation of backs behind a good offensive line, plus the threat of Demond Williams on the ground should keep drives going. I’m torn on whether UW will cover a spread this big, but I have little doubt about the winner.

Washington 38 – Washington St 17

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