Big 12 Week 1 Predictions: Texas Tech Rolls, Baylor Faces Trouble

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Big 12 football Week 1 is finally here, and after TCU opened the season with an ugly 15-10 loss to North Carolina, the rest of the league gets its first chance to set the tone for 2026.

The conference slate is loaded with massive point spreads, new coaches and teams trying to prove preseason expectations weren’t just offseason noise.

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The biggest spotlight belongs to No. 12 Texas Tech, the defending Big 12 champion and the clear preseason favorite to repeat.

The Red Raiders open against Abilene Christian as a 42.5-point favorite, and the biggest storyline is quarterback Will Hammond.

He’s back after tearing his ACL last October and is expected to get the first real test of his recovery. Texas Tech shouldn’t have trouble winning, but how sharp Hammond looks matters more than the final margin.

Elsewhere, Baylor immediately faces pressure.

Dave Aranda’s team draws Auburn in Atlanta as a 7.5-point underdog, and new quarterback DJ Lagway will need to be efficient against a Tigers defense that should test him early.

Auburn has more momentum and a friendlier environment, even at a neutral site.

Colorado also gets a difficult opener at Georgia Tech.

Deion Sanders enters another season needing to prove his program can win consistently without NFL-caliber stars carrying the roster.

There are several places where the favorites should simply overwhelm weaker opponents. UCF, Utah, Kansas, Kansas State, BYU, Arizona State and Texas Tech are all laying huge numbers.

But Week 1 rarely goes perfectly.

That’s why games like Boston College at Cincinnati, Oregon State at Houston and Coastal Carolina at West Virginia are worth watching. Cincinnati enters its opener with questions surrounding the program, while Houston has a chance to make an early statement as a ranked Big 12 contender.

And then there’s Texas Tech.

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Joey McGuire’s team enters 2026 with a target on its back after a 12-2 season and a Big 12 championship. The talent is there. The expectations are higher.

Week 1 isn’t about proving Texas Tech can beat Abilene Christian, it’s about showing the rest of the Big 12 that last year wasn’t a one-season peak.

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