10 Best College Football Picks Against the Spread for Week 1 Saturday: Let the Blowouts Begin
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In this world, I’ll take 60% without blinking.
That’s not super-fun, and that’s not why you called, but in the new world of college football with massive turnovers of talent and teams with zero continuity, this year, more than any other, has been about surviving and advancing.
After a rough Week 0, going 6-4 on Thursday and Friday was just fine, especially since the misses mostly had positives – like missing the under call on Toledo vs Michigan, but nailing that the Spartans would win by ten.
But this is no time to get cocky in any possible way. We’re still dealing with way too many games against FCS teams, and way too many variables. But here we are with a massive Saturday of Week 1 games, and let’s see what we can do.
Last Week’s Results: 8-7
– All the Week 1 Picks
– Week 1 Expert Picks
10. Fordham at North Dakota State
Line: North Dakota State -41.5
ATS Pick: North Dakota State
North Dakota State will rip through everything and everyone who comes through the Fargodome.
Fordham isn’t great. It went 1-11 last year, starting out the season with a 66-10 loss to a Boston College team that won just one game the rest of the way.
North Dakota State is great. It rumbled by Jacksonville State 33-7 to open things up, while Fordham couldn’t get to 200 yards of total offense in a loss to Colgate.
9. Wyoming at Colorado State
Line: Point Total 46.5
ATS Pick: Under
Wyoming vs Colorado State Game Prediction and Preview
Honestly, it feels too early in the season to start doing the under thing, but this is Wyoming we’re talking about. It’s going to crank up the offense a bit more and go with a better pace, but it’s also the team that failed to get past seven points in any of its last four games last year. That, and never screw with a streak.
Wyoming vs Colorado State …
2025: 28-0
2024: 24-10
2023: 24-15
2022: 14-13
8. Nicholls vs Kansas State
Line: Kansas State -41.5
ATS Pick: Kansas State
Nicholls vs Kansas State Game Prediction and Preview
To save us all time and countless lives, read this and apply it to a whole slew of picks coming up. With the exception of Indiana State scoring way too much late on Purdue, the FBS teams are obliterating the FCS teams.
Yes, Nicholls was able to roll past Mississippi Valley State to start the season, but it won’t do a thing against Kansas State’s attack under new head coach Collin Klein. The Wildcats will get past 41.5 at some point, but you’ll have to hold your breath late after the backups play the whole fourth quarter.
7. Lafayette at UConn
Line: UConn -19.5
ATS Pick: UConn
Lafayette wasn’t bad last year, and it still lost to a bad Bowling Green team by 19 and a miserable Oregon State squad by 32. Here’s the other kicker, even though it helps make this pick about as flaky as they come – the Leopards weren’t able to play last week. Their game against Georgetown was canceled thanks to a lightning storm.
Under new head coach Jason Candle, and with a rebuilt team, UConn will get running early and won’t stop.
6. Boise State at Oregon
Line: Oregon -24.5
ATS Pick: Oregon
Boise State vs Oregon Game Prediction and Preview
When was the last time Boise State beat a team from a power conference? It opened the 2019 season with a 36-31 win at Florida State. It took down a blah Oregon team in the 2017 Las Vegas Bowl, but that FSU win was it for the regular season, since rolling through a few mediocre old school Pac-12 teams in 2016.
This is a decent Boise State team, but I’m buying that Oregon will go full throttle from jump. Speaking of putting the foot on the gas …
5. Ball State at Ohio State
Line: Point Total: 56.5
ATS Pick: Over
Ball State vs Ohio State Game Prediction and Preview
It’s that time you’ve all been waiting for. Okay … here we go … if a team has a reasonable chance of covering the point total by itself, then make the reasonable call.
The concern is that Ball State won’t help the cause at all. Maybe the Cardinals will come up with a touchdown. Maybe it’ll make a big special teams play or something. Or maybe Ohio State will find a groove and hang 77 on the board, like it did on Toledo in 2022. Or 63, like it did against Western Kentucky in 2023.
4. Coastal Carolina at West Virginia
Line: Point Total: 54.5
ATS Pick: Over
Coastal Carolina vs West Virginia Game Prediction and Preview
If a team has a reasonable …
Coastal Carolina is a new team under head coach Ryan Beard. What’s good about that is the former Missouri State head coach knows how to crank up an offense. Okay, so his Bears were only able to score 13 on USC to start last season … and they gave up 73.
They scored 34 against Kennesaw State and 30 on Louisiana Tech. And they gave up 41 and 42, respectively. Oh, and again, new year, new teams, new everything, and all that. Coastal Carolina closed the regular season giving up 45 to Georgia Southern, 51 to South Carolina, and 59 to James Madison.
West Virginia will score. A lot.
3. Kent State at South Carolina
Line: Point Total: 53.5
ATS Pick: Over
Kent State at South Carolina Game Prediction and Preview
You know the drill. South Carolina was lousy last season. It still put up 51 on Coastal Carolina.
Kent State might be much, much better, but that’s a good thing here. It’ll probably score a little bit. But it also gave up 62 to Texas Tech and 66 to Florida State last season.
The year before, it gave up 71 to Tennessee, 56 to Penn State, and 55 to Pitt. The program has allowed 44 points or more in its last six games against power conference teams.
2. Utah Tech at BYU
Line: BYU -51.5
ATS Pick: Utah Tech
Utah Tech at BYU Game Prediction and Preview
Warning: I’m forcing a pick to happen.
I’m going against my own pick of BYU winning in a total annihilation because of a principle I’ve held true for the last 25 years. If you’re walking into a stadium up 51.5 to 0, you take it.
You know how hard it is to win a football game by more than 50? Even one score on the other side might screw it up. Bad weather, the quarterback might be off, the coaches might put in the backups too soon.
So far this season, seven teams scored 50 or more points. Only three won by more than 51.5, and two of them were by 52. And yes, BYU started out last season with a 69-0 win over Portland State, but … this could be a 58-7 total wipeout, and you still don’t win.
1. Auburn vs Baylor
Line: Point Total 58.5
ATS Pick: Over
Auburn vs Baylor Game Prediction and Preview
Baylor hosted Auburn to start last season. The Tigers didn’t do much offensively all year, but it put up 38 on the Bears. That might not seem like a big deal in a game with a combined 62 points, but that was just one of eight BU games that went past 58 – and it improved the offense with DJ Lagway at quarterback.
New Auburn head coach Alex Golesh comes in from USF. Last year, his Bulls went on a run of nine games in a row when the total blew past 58.5, and the first game that didn’t was a 52-3 win over Rice.
(And yes, you know all about the horrendous history of my No. 1 picks. Nailed it on Friday night, taking USC over Fresno State. I won’t get cocky … I won’t get cocky …)
Consensus line based on BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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