Preview: Florida State is an Underdog to SMU at Home
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They have
only played each other just once in their histories.
In 2024, the SMU Mustangs
hosted the Florida State Seminoles for the first time after the Mustangs left
the American Conference and joined the ACC. On that day, Kevin Jennings led the
Mustangs on a stampede to a 42-16 defeat of the Seminoles.
Jennings
completed 70 percent of his passes for 254 yards and three touchdowns, and no
interceptions. SMU went on to play in the ACC Championship Game and earned a
berth in the College Football Playoff. Florida State went on to finish 2-10
after winning 13 games the season before. Talk about a fall from grace.
On Labor
Day, the Mustangs will gallop into Doak Campbell Stadium as a -3.5-point
favorite on the road in the conference opener for both teams. SMU Coach Rhett
Lashlee, speaking on the looming matchup with Florida State in a
post on X, said “I have no idea how we aren’t a 7-to-10-point underdog.”
Many could
argue as to why SMU is not favored by more than 3.5 points, regardless of the
fact that this is a road game for the Mustangs. Florida State has lost 17 games
over the last two seasons. By contrast, SMU has averaged nine wins per season
during Lashlee’s tenure.
Broadcast
Information
Date:
Monday, Sept. 7
Time: 6:30
p.m. CST
Location:
Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
TV: ESPN
Listen:
Seminoles Radio Network
Betting
Odds: SMU -3.5
SMU
Mustangs
The
Mustangs live and die by the forward pass, with the offensive scheme created by
head coach Rhett Lashlee. Lashlee has led SMU to 38 wins during his tenure, and
welcomes back his starting quarterback for a third season as the trigger for this
potent passing attack.
Jennings has
posted back-to-back 3,000+ yard seasons and 49 touchdowns as a full-time
starter the past two seasons. Last season, he put the ball in the air an
extraordinary 454 times and threw 13 interceptions.
He will
operate behind an offensive line that returns three starters. Center Joshua
Bates is a 2026 Rimington Award watch list member, and was an Honorable Mention
All-ACC selection. Right guard Addison Nichols earned a grade of 90.0 from Pro
Football Focus (PFF), which ranked No. 6 in the country. He allowed zero sacks
and only six quarterback pressures in 875 pass blocking snaps.
Left
tackle PJ Williams returns after earning second-team All-ACC honors. He earned
a grade of 80.00 overall and an 80.3 grade in run-blocking. Both of those
grades were among the top 20 in college football.
The
running game will be handled by Kendrick Raphael, a transfer from Cal, who
rushed for over 900 yards and scored 13 rushing touchdowns last season. That
was good enough to tie for No. 25 in the FBS.
The SMU
defense is talented and athletic, led by linebackers Brandon Booker and
Alexander Kilgore, who combined for 129 tackles a season ago. In the secondary,
safety Jimmy Wyrick (from UTSA) recorded 62 tackles, eight pass breakups, one
interception and one forced fumble. Cornerback Marcellus Barnes Jr. is back
after racking up 32 stops, one interception, six pass breakups and one forced
fumble.
Florida
State Seminoles
Coach Mike
Norvell and Seminoles have the advantage of having played a game already,
beating New Mexico State 34-17. There were some things that needed to be
cleaned up during this week of preparation, but there were also some
outstanding performances from Week Zero. Running backs Ousmane Kromah and Sam
Singleton Jr. combined for 279 total yards and three touchdowns.
Quarterback
Ashton Daniels completed 63 percent of his passes for 202 yards and accounted
for two touchdowns (one passing, one rushing). He did throw an interception,
the 23rd of his college career.
The
Seminoles defense held New Mexico State to just 47 yards rushing and a paltry
three yards per carry. Defensive coordinator Tony White would certainly like to
see that again against the Mustangs.
Florida
State’s secondary got exposed against New Mexico State as they gave up 272
yards passing and two touchdowns to a former FCS starting quarterback. Soft
coverage and miscommunication by the Seminoles defensive backs allowed for big
plays in the New Mexico State passing game.
SMU
wins if…
The
Mustangs win this game if Jennings shreds the Seminoles pass defense like he
did in 2024, and if Raphael can find the end zone running the football. A
balanced SMU offensive attack is hard to stop.
Florida
State wins if…
If Kromah
and Singleton can repeat their performances from game one, and the pass defense
of Florida State gets their head in the game and is aggressive in their pass
coverage and communicates better. If they can do that, the Seminoles get that
big signature win that has been long overdue.
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