2026 Week 1 Preview: SMU Mustangs @ Florida State Seminoles

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Game notes

• Time and date: Monday, September 7 at 3:30 p.m. ET
• Network: ESPN
• Location: Doak Campbell Stadium — Tallahassee, FL
• Spread: SMU (-3)
• Over/under: 53.5
• All-time series: SMU leads, 1-0
• Last meeting: SMU 42, Florida State 16 — September 28, 2024
• Current streak: SMU, 1 (2024)

Setting the scene

Labor Day Weekend is one of college football’s greatest spectacles. After Week 0 gives us a sneak preview of the season, we are spoiled with five consecutive days of college football. Wrapping up the weekend marathon is the annual Labor Day Monday night game.

Florida State is a Labor Day staple, and the Seminoles will play on the holiday for the ninth time since 2005 — owning a 4-4 record in the eight previous matchups. Meanwhile, SMU will play on Labor Day for the first time since 2007 when it hosted Texas Tech.

There is a film room discrepancy between the ACC teams in this early-season conference matchup. Florida State already has 60 minutes of tape after downing New Mexico State, 34-17, in Week 0. However, this is SMU’s first matchup of the 2026 season.

The Mustangs hammered the Seminoles two years ago in Dallas, but Monday marks the first-ever meeting between the programs in Tallahassee.

SMU Mustangs outlook

When SMU joined the ACC, it was the scrappy underdog from the American Conference just trying to prove it belonged. After two seasons, head coach Rhett Lashlee and the Mustangs established themselves as perennial contenders in the league. They cleared their entire ACC regular season schedule in 2024 to qualify for the ACC Championship Game and College Football Playoff. And last season, they were less than one minute away from returning to Charlotte for the ACC title game.

SMU is 14-2 in two seasons of ACC play, and both games were lost on the final play due to kicking woes. This year’s team enters ranked No. 19 in the AP Poll, only trailing Miami (FL) as the ACC’s highest ranked member.

The Mustangs have lofty expectations thanks to the return of quarterback Kevin Jennings. After leading SMU to a conference championship, an ACC title game appearance, a CFP berth, and a Holiday Bowl win in the past three years, SMU named its new recovery center after him. That unprecedented move shows the faith the university has in Jennings, who ranked eighth nationally with 3,641 passing yards a year ago.

Lashlee launched a Heisman campaign for Jennings, and for that to materialize, the quarterback must improve in two areas in 2026. One is mobility. His rushing total dropped extraordinarily from 354 yards to 54 yards from 2024 to 2025; however, he nursed an ankle injury for nearly the entirety of last season, so he should progress in that department. Also, limiting interceptions will be key. Jennings tied for third in the FBS with 13 interceptions, and limiting such mistakes could make SMU one of the most efficient offenses in the country.

The Mustangs lost a wealth of skill position talent, but they addressed their needs in the transfer portal. Former NC State and California running back Kendrick Raphael arrives at his third ACC school after producing 943 rushing yards, 34 receptions, and 14 total touchdowns last season. Yannick Smith was an all-conference receiver at East Carolina and could replace some of Jordan Hudson’s production. And Theodor Melin Öhrström (Texas A&M) and Randy Pittman Jr. (Florida State) replace SMU’s effective tight end duo of Matthew Hibner and RJ Maryland.

These newcomers will be joined by several returning Mustangs. Dramekco Green should see a significantly expanded role after making just five appearances as a true freshman last year. And in the receiving corps, Yamir Knight could be the new premier option after winning Holiday Bowl MVP honors. Former four-star recruit Jalen Cooper, who excelled at the beginning of last season, should also see a spike in production.

While the skill positions mix in a slew of newcomers, SMU’s starting offensive line consists solely of incumbents. Three starters return, headlined by All-ACC left tackle PJ Williams and All-ACC honorable mention center Joshua Bates.

After losing Casey Woods to Missouri State, offensive coordinator duties will be split by wide receivers coach Rob Likens, offensive line coach Garin Justice, and quarterbacks coach D’Eriq King. Likewise, after losing Scott Symons to the Dallas Cowboys, defensive coordinator duties will be split by returning assistants Maurice Crum Jr. and Rickey Hunley Jr.

SMU’s defenses have been renowned for assertive line play over the past three seasons. However, they must reload after losing all four linemen which generated at least five sacks in 2025. The Mustangs brought in transfers Ira Singleton (South Florida) and Tavion Atkinson (Trinity Valley Community College) to man the edges, while Malcolm Alcorn-Crowder (Kansas State) and Christian Davis (Louisiana Tech) plug the interior.

The linebacking corps retains the team’s third and fourth leading tacklers, Brandon Booker and Alex Kilgore, as well as a key rotation piece in Brandon Miyazono. But the Mustangs’ biggest question mark on defense revolves around the coverage game. SMU ranked second-to-last in the FBS by allowing 283 passing yards per game last year, and the departures of All-ACC safeties Isaiah Nwokobia and Ahmaad Moses (who might return to the team after the Wisne v. NCAA ruling) make things more complicated. Texas A&M cornerback Jayvon Thomas, UTSA free safety Jimmy Wyrick, and South Florida nickel Jarvis Lee are among the transfers aiming to correct this concerning ranking.

And if not corrected, SMU will continue to rely on its turnover creation abilities. The Mustangs produced the fifth-most takeaways in the FBS last season, cashing in three of those takeaways for defensive touchdowns.

Florida State Seminoles outlook

2026 is a pivotal year for Florida State football. The Seminoles haven’t competed in a bowl game since 2023 after posting a 7-17 record across the prior two seasons. Losing has become too familiar of a concept in Tallahassee, and Florida State has finished under .500 in six of the last eight seasons.

Head coach Mike Norvell already started his 2026 slate 1-0 after a 34-17 home victory over New Mexico State in Week 0. However, the game was far more competitive than Seminoles fans anticipated. The Aggies possessed the ball with a chance to take the lead right before halftime and trailed by 10 within the final five minutes of the contest. Florida State let up 10-of-17 third downs due to some struggles in the passing defense, but it held the run game completely in check to deny the upset opportunity.

The level of competition significantly ramps up this week when SMU rolls into town.

Quarterback Ashton Daniels, who started against the Mustangs two years ago at Stanford, gets a revenge opportunity. Daniels finished his Florida State debut 17-of-27 with 202 passing yards, one touchdown, and one interception. His passing will be key against an SMU defense which regularly surrendered 300 yards last year, especially if SMU’s revamped front keeps him in the pocket. Daniels also offers a hint of mobility, attaining 80 rushing yards in seven career outings. However, the Mustangs neutralized most mobile quarterbacks in 2025, and his passing prowess will be the most essential element of his game Monday night.

Florida State has the arsenal to support Daniels’ passing game. Duce Robinson ranked 11th nationally with 1,081 receiving yards last season, and he’s the team’s lone returning All-ACC selection. Micahi Danzy — who led all wide receivers in receptions and yards in the opener — is the home run hitter after averaging 21.1 yards per catch in 2025.

The Seminoles also boast a deep running back room, which was the best position group in the win over New Mexico State. The 6’1”, 216-pound Ousmane Kromah bulldozed through the defense en route to 115 rushing yards and a touchdown. Samuel Singleton Jr. added 42 rushing yards, a team-high 54 receiving yards, and two total touchdowns as a frequent target on screens. Former Texas 1,000-yard rusher Tre Wisner also got involved, and the deep rotation allows Florida State to keep fresh legs in four-quarter wars of attrition.

Florida State out-gained New Mexico State in the opener, 419-319. The Aggies generated those 319 yards without amassing more than 34 on a single play. Rather, they sustained long drives from the onset, regularly piercing into Seminole territory.

Still, Florida State was potent in the run game, which was the team’s premier strength in 2025. New Mexico State only logged 47 rushing yards on 23 attempts and never broke a run longer than 12 yards. Also, Florida State’s pass rush proved overwhelming at times, and three different Seminoles landed a sack in the Week 0 showcase.

The pass rush will be more essential against an SMU team that ranked 13th in passing yards per game last fall. Texas A&M transfer Rylan Kennedy, who tallied a sack in his Seminole debut, will be the key edge rusher battling a veteran Mustang offensive line. Cornerbacks Ja’Bril Rawls and Quindarrius Jones must do some heavy lifting for this defense and bait Kevin Jennings into an errant throws. Strong safety Ashlynd Barker is also slated for a vital role Monday as the team’s best tackler in the secondary.

Prediction

SMU enters as a slight road favorite, but stranger things have happened in Sunday and Monday night Labor Day weekend showdowns.

The Mustangs stroll into this matchup with advantages in several key position groups, including quarterback and offensive line. However, Florida State counters with two factors that could play into its favor. First, it will be a raucous homefield crowd at Doak Campbell Stadium. SMU is undefeated at home since joining the ACC, but the Mustangs have suffered a pair of road upsets.

Second, Florida State already took the field. While that provides the Mustangs with film to study, the Seminoles already exhausted their first-game jitters. They already witnessed the assimilation between transfers and returning talent on the revamped defense, and Ashton Daniels has already thrown 27 passes to his new targets in meaningful action.

The Mustangs will be explosive offensively, but an all-new defensive line leaves questions about the pass rush’s capabilities, and Florida State has the skill position personnel to keep up with SMU in a track meet. Even though SMU has finished the past three seasons tremendously strong, the program has struggled out of the gate lately. That trend continues, and Florida State pulls off the upset in a thrilling back-and-forth matchup to cap Week 1.

Prediction: Florida State 34, SMU 31

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