Wright: Can Lobos, Aggies both win big?
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It’s a phenomenon rarer than a solar eclipse.
It makes a lunar eclipse, by comparison, seem like a nightly occurrence.
But, could it happen in 2026? Might the New Mexico Lobos and the New Mexico State Aggies have winning football seasons in the same year, for the first time since 1978?
If you’re the type of Lobo or Aggie football fan who’s willing to root for the other guy when the two schools aren’t playing each other, you’ve got to be happy with what you’ve seen in this season’s infancy.
The Lobos, almost boring in their dominance, opened their season Saturday night with a 38-7 victory over Central Michigan at University Stadium. Offense, defense, special teams? It was all there.
The Aggies, after a highly respectable showing in a 34-17 loss at Florida State on Aug. 29, hit the win column on Saturday with a 51-14 rout of FCS designated victim Mercyhurst at Aggie Memorial Stadium.
After a sluggish start, the Aggies showed the Lakers no — what’s the word I’m looking for? — succor in the second half.
As for the possibility of UNM not having a winning season, that’s a bet Kalshi wouldn’t take. After a 9-4 record and a bowl bid last year in coach Jason Eck’s debut season, and with a diminished Mountain West schedule due to conference realignment, seven wins or more in 2026 seems almost a certainty.
In fact, fewer than another nine wins would be a disappointment. The muscles the Lobos flexed against the Chippewas are real.
As for the Aggies, based on early returns, Conference USA win opportunities appear to be available. Plentiful? We’ll see.
Once NMSU gets past its next two games against Hawaii and UNM — probable losses, but more about Lobos-Aggies later — transfer quarterback Trey Hedden seems capable of keeping NMSU in conference games against Western Kentucky, Florida International, Sam Houston, Jacksonville State, Liberty, Missouri State, Delaware and Middle Tennessee.
Could there be seven wins and bowl eligibility in there? For these purposes, we’re saying sure, why not?
As for Lobos-Aggies in Las Cruces on Sept. 16, there’s …
The Mercyhurst Factor …
… Which is no factor at all, but fun to discuss.
Rarely, if ever — feel free to do your own research — have NMSU and UNM played the same FCS team in the same season, let alone on back-to-back Saturdays.
But, yes, Mercyhurst (0-2) comes to University Stadium this Saturday.
The closest comparison I can think of came in 1960, when NMSU opened at home with a 41-0 victory over the University of Mexico.
The following Saturday, in the first game at University Stadium, the Lobos crushed the same Mexican team 77-6.
The disparity in the scores suggested a Lobo victory when the intrastate rivals met at University Stadium on Oct. 8 of that year.
Nope. The Aggies thumped the Lobos 34-0 en route to that historic 11-0 season. The Lobos went 5-5 that year.
One suspects if UNM so desired, it might be able to hang another 77 points on the Lakers next Saturday. My guess it’ll choose not to — making moot any thoughts of a Lobos-Aggies-Lakers comparison.
About 1978 …
The Lobos went 7-5 that season under coach Bill Mondt. The Aggies went 6-5 under Gil Krueger.
UNM beat NMSU 35-20 that year.
It was the only year in the two-platoon era (1965-present) in which both teams had a winning record. It’s happened only seven times since 1934.
Give an asterisk to 2002. The Lobos were 7-6 under Rocky Long during the regular season before losing to UCLA in the Las Vegas Bowl. The Aggies of coach Tony Samuel went 7-5.
NMSU beat UNM 24-13 that year.
About Saturday …
The one thing missing from UNM’s impressive victory over Central Michigan, perhaps, was the explosive play. The Lobos’ longest play from scrimmage was a 23-yard run by backup running back Darrion Bowers during mop-up time late in the fourth quarter.
Eck was asked afterward if he was confident that more explosive plays — generally defined as of 20 yards or more — would happen in the future.
“I’m not that confident,” he said. “We’ve got to get better at that.”
My guess is the Lobos will get better quickly in that area against Mercyhurst and beyond, given the game-breaking potential flashed by running back Kiefer Sibley, quarterback Toa Fa’ave and punt returner Marco Beltran.
There’s plenty of speed at receiver, as well, and quarterback Luke Moga has more than enough arm strength to throw the deep ball that wasn’t seen on Saturday.
The Moga-Fa’ave gambit — exploiting skill sets different enough to trouble opposing defensive coordinators but similar for use of the same pages in the playbook — looks like something that could continue effectively throughout the season.
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