Big 12 football bowl projections after Week 1 of 2026 season
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After one week of college football, we are looking to the end of the season to see what bowl games each Big 12 team will be in.
Bryan Fischer with Sports Illustrated, ESPN's Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach provided their playoff and bowl projections following the first week of the college football season.
Like last year, the Big 12 title will be up for grabs. While Bonagura predicts Texas Tech will win the conference again, Fischer and Schlabach project BYU will represent the Big 12 in the College Football Playoff this season as the conference champion. However, they also have Texas Tech as an at-large team. However, both teams still face competition from others in the Big 12, including Houston and Utah.
There will be 41 bowl games, with six in the CFP. The bowl designations for former Pac-12 teams will be a bit messy this season. Colorado, along with Arizona State, Arizona, Utah, and other former Pac-12 teams currently in the ACC and Big Ten, are still tied to Pac-12 bowl games.
Let's get into a few outlets' bowl predictions after Week 1. Among the Big 12 teams, only Iowa State and Oklahoma State are not projected to make a bowl game by any analyst, and BYU is the only team all three analysts project to make the CFP.
Colorado Buffaloes
Sports Illustrated projection: Sun Bowl vs. Virginia
Bonagura (ESPN) projection: No projection
Schlabach (ESPN) projection: No projection
After their impressive win over Georgia Tech to open the season, Sports Illustrated believes the Buffaloes will make a bowl game, while ESPN is not yet on board. They have a difficult schedule this year, playing Texas Tech, Utah, and Houston, all of which are ranked. But they also have games against teams like Northwestern and Oklahoma State, which are certainly winnable. Based on how well their run defense performed against the Yellow Jackets and their schedule, Colorado should certainly make a bowl game this year.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Sports Illustrated projection: Alamo Bowl vs. Washington
Bonagura (ESPN) projection: No. 8 seed in CFP vs. No. 9 Alabama
Schlabach (ESPN) projection: No. 10 seed in CFP vs. No. 7 Miami
It is no surprise to see Texas Tech projected to make the playoffs, but, surprisingly, two of these analysts don't rank the Red Raiders as the top team in the Big 12, instead going with BYU, which had a stronger season opener. But this shows the level of competition at the top of the conference right now.
UCF Knights
Sports Illustrated projection: Independence Bowl vs. Tulsa
Bonagura (ESPN) projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Tennessee
Schlabach (ESPN) projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Nebraska
UCF saw an improvement in their bowl projections after their dominating win over Bethune. Any of these matchups would be interesting to watch with the Knights' offense.
Baylor Bears
Sports Illustrated projection: No projection
Bonagura (ESPN) projection: Armed Forces Bowl vs. Army
Schlabach (ESPN) projection: Texas Bowl vs. Tennessee
Baylor almost beat Auburn, and the Bears' effort in that game seemed to improve their outlook for making a bowl game this year. The Bears played in the Armed Forces Bowl in 2022 and the Texas Bowl in 2024 and lost both.
Arizona State Sun Devils
Sports Illustrated projection: Las Vegas Bowl vs. Tennessee
Bonagura (ESPN) projection: No projection
Schlabach (ESPN) projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Nebraska
Why Bonagura does not have ASU in a bowl game is beyond me, given they put up 70 points in the first three quarters and shortened the fourth quarter against Morgan State. The Sun Devils have been competitive the past few years and should certainly make a bowl game this year and prove to be a challenging opponent for Colorado later in the season.
Kansas Jayhawks
Sports Illustrated projection: No projection
Bonagura (ESPN) projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Wisconsin
Schlabach (ESPN) projection: No projection
Not much has changed here from the spring projections. On3 had the Jayhawks facing Wisconsin, while CBS Sports did not project Kansas to make a bowl game; that is about what Sports Illustrated and ESPN are projecting now. They will be a bubble team all season.
Houston Cougars
Sports Illustrated projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. Pittsburgh
Bonagura (ESPN) projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. SMU
Schlabach (ESPN) projection: Alamo Bowl vs. USC
Not much different from the spring projections, as Houston is still predicted to play in the Pop-Tarts Bowl. A matchup against SMU would be particularly interesting, especially if the Mustangs can commit fewer turnovers than they did in the season opener against Florida State.
BYU Cougars
Sports Illustrated projection: No. 8 seed in CFP vs. No. 9 Indiana
Bonagura (ESPN) projection: No. 11 seed in CFP vs. No. 6 LSU
Schlabach (ESPN) projection: No. 9 seed in CFP vs. No. 8 LSU
The biggest shift in bowl projections among Big 12 teams is with BYU. Texas Tech came into this season as the clear favorite, and the only team in the conference predicted to make it to the CFP. Now, the Cougars find themselves in the playoff conversation as both the Big 12 contender and an at-large team.
TCU Horned Frogs
Sports Illustrated projection: Texas Bowl vs. Missouri
Bonagura (ESPN) projection: Independence Bowl vs. California
Schlabach (ESPN) projection: Pop-Tarts Bowl vs. Louisville
Having TCU in the Pop-Tarts Bowl seems like a little bit of a stretch based on their game against North Carolina, but the Texas Bowl and Independence Bowl are certainly possibilities for the Horned Frogs.
Kansas State Wildcats
Sports Illustrated projection: Frisco Bowl vs. Nebraska
Bonagura (ESPN) projection: Alamo Bowl vs. USC
Schlabach (ESPN) projection: Liberty Bowl vs. Missouri
Kansas State certainly looks like they are on their way to bouncing back this season with their 71-3 win to start the season. If that performance is any indication, they should make a bowl game, and these matchups would be intriguing to watch.
Utah Utes
Sports Illustrated projection: Holiday Bowl vs. Clemson
Bonagura (ESPN) projection: Las Vegas Bowl vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach (ESPN) projection: Holiday Bowl vs. Virginia
The Holiday Bowl seems to be a consensus for now after Utah's dominant win over Idaho to start the season. While Clemson seems unlikely to face the Cavaliers, a matchup against them would be fun.
Arizona Wildcats
Sports Illustrated projection: First Responder Bowl vs. Maryland
Bonagura (ESPN) projection: Sun Bowl vs. Virginia Tech
Schlabach (ESPN) projection: Sun Bowl vs. Clemson
Arizona certainly looked like a team on their way to a prominent bowl game in their opener against Northern Arizona. A matchup against Virginia Tech would be highly entertaining, and if the Wildcats were in the Sun Bowl, it would be their first time playing in that bowl game since 1992.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Sports Illustrated projection: Cactus Bowl vs. Wisconsin
Bonagura (ESPN) projection: Texas Bowl vs. Auburn
Schlabach (ESPN) projection: No projection
Cincinnati won its opener against Boston College, but it wasn't their best showing. 85 passing yards isn't sustainable throughout the college football season, but they have a talented running back in Gi'Bran Payne, and their quarterback JC French can certainly run. So, seeing them in any bowl game would be entertaining. However, their schedule is difficult, with four ranked teams and a tough matchup against Colorado near the end of the season.
West Virginia Mountaineers
Sports Illustrated projection: Liberty Bowl vs. South Carolina
Bonagura (ESPN) projection: No projection
Schlabach (ESPN) projection: Independence Bowl vs. Washington State
It would be quite the turnaround for the Mountaineers to make a bowl game this year after their 4-8 record, which included going 2-7 in the Big 12 last season. Coastal Carolina certainly put up a fight in the opener, and with four ranked teams in their future, it wouldn't be surprising if West Virginia didn't make a bowl game.
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This article originally appeared on Buffaloes Wire: Big 12 football bowl projections after Week 1 of 2026 season
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