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Hello everyone and welcome back to our weekly bowl projections here at Last Word On College Football. The season’s first weekend certainly had plenty of talking points, especially in the Big Ten and ACC. The SEC went a spiffy 16-0 in week one. Elsewhere, most of our top teams took care of business with no problem, as you would expect. As a result, we only have one new team in our top 12 this week. While it’s easy to jump to overreactions after the first game, we aren’t making a whole lot of changes. However, we moved some teams around since our original picks back in July. Let’s begin our 2026 bowl projections after week one, as we do every week with the playoff.
2026 Bowl Projections After Week One
How The Process Works
After all the talk about expansion for 2026, the playoff committee left things the way they were, with a 12-team playoff. The top four still get a first-round bye. However, the winners of the Power Four conferences don’t automatically get slots 1-4. In addition, the highest-ranked Group of Five team receives a bid. That leaves seven at-large teams. Once again, seeds 5-8 host first-round games on campus. The New Year’s Six bowls are introduced for the next round and the semi-finals. Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas hosts the title game on January 25th. With the formalities out of the way, let’s get to our 2026 bowl projections after week one.
College Football Playoff First Round
Friday, December 18th- Lubbock, Texas (9) Indiana vs. (8) Texas Tech– It wasn’t the prettiest game for sure, but Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers started their title defense with a 51-16 win over North Texas. However, it was only a two-score game headed to the fourth quarter. As a result, we dropped them a couple of spots. The Red Raiders series started on Paramount Plus this past weekend, then went out and defeated Abilene Christian 33-10.
Saturday, December 19th – Columbus, Ohio (11) Ole Miss vs. (6) Ohio State –Trinidad Chambliss threw for 351 yards and three touchdowns and ran for another. Lucas Carneiro nailed a 48-yard field goal at the buzzer to beat Louisville 41-38. On the other side of the ball, Ryan Day’s club had no trouble with Ball State, winning 56-3. They travel to Texas on Saturday night in one of the biggest games of the year.
Saturday, December 19th- Bloomington, Indiana- (10) SMU at (7) LSU– Lane Kiffin and the Tigers waited through a two-hour weather delay and gave Dabo Swinney his worst loss ever. As a result, we’re moving the Tigers up a couple of spots. SMU fought off another kind of delay, a power outage, before beating Florida State 27-24.
Saturday, December 19th- Athens, Georgia- (12) Boise State at (5) Georgia– In our original picks, we said the winner of Memphis and UNLV was going to get the 12th spot in the playoff. However, after watching the Broncos nearly upset Oregon on the road, they get our vote. The Bulldogs had no trouble with Tennessee State winning 63-3.
Playoff Quarterfinals
Wednesday, December 30th- VRBO Fiesta Bowl- (5) Georgia vs. (4) Oregon- We’re picking the Bulldogs to get past Boise State and set up a showdown in the desert with the Ducks. We did drop Oregon one spot after their game with Boise State.
Friday, January 1st- Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl- (8) Texas Tech vs. (1) Miami– After the Red Raiders get past Indiana, that sets up a date with the Hurricanes. Darian Mensah threw for 401 yards and five touchdowns, three of them to Malachi Toney, as the “U” won at Stanford 45-6.
Friday, January 1st- Rose Bowl Presented By Prudential- (6) Ohio State vs. (3) Notre Dame- The Fighting Irish broke open a close game in the second half for a 41-13 win over Wisconsin. As a result, we flipped them and Oregon this week.
Friday, January 1st- Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic- (7) LSU vs. (2) Texas– We hate having regular season rematches but this one should be a good one. The Tigers and Longhorns meet on November 14th in Baton Rouge. Arch Manning and the Longhorns had no trouble with Texas State, winning 59-7.
That’s a lot to digest, but there’s still plenty more to come as we roll on with our 2026 bowl projections after week one.
College Football Playoff Semi-Finals And Finals
Thursday, January 14th- Capital One Orange Bowl- (4) Georgia vs. (1) Miami– We are picking the Bulldogs to get past Oregon and face the Hurricanes in what’s basically a home game.
Friday, January 15th- Allstate Sugar Bowl- (3) Notre Dame vs. (2) Texas– The Fighting Irish get past Ohio State to set up a semi-final showdown with the Longhorns.
Monday, January 25th- College Football National Championship- (2) Texas vs. (1) Miami– For this week, we are staying with the top two teams meeting in Las Vegas. The Hurricanes and Longhorns have met four times all-time, with each school winning twice. Their last meeting came in the 1991 Cotton Bowl, with Miami winning 46-3. We expect this one to be much closer; however, we’re going with Miami to take the title.
That takes care of the playoffs, but there’s still tons more to go. Let’s get to the rest of the bowl games with our 2026 bowl projections after week one.
New Games For 2026
As you are probably well aware, there was some conference reshuffling this year with the Pac-12 and Mountain West. In addition, we said goodbye to some games and added others. The Bahamas, LA and GameAbove Sports Bowls are no more. Furthermore, the Xbox Bowl became a one-and-done contest. The returning Frisco Football Classic is replacing it. Joining the schedule this year are the Puerto Rico Bowl and the Poinsettia Bowl, which returns after a 10-year absence. It will be the second game played in San Diego. Currently, it’s scheduled to be the Pac-12 versus the Mountain West. As a result, you could get an old and a new Pac-12 school playing each other.
Once again this year, legacy Pac-12 schools will remain with those conference tie-ins. For example, Utah would go to one of those sponsored games rather than a Big 12 one, assuming they don’t make the playoff. In addition, the NCAA eliminated the rule requiring you to wait at least a year before becoming bowl-eligible. That means both North Dakota State and Sacramento State can play in a bowl this season. Finally, since it’s an even-numbered year, the SEC plays in the Las Vegas Bowl and the Big Ten in the Mayo.
Games Around The New Year
Cheez-It Citrus Bowl: January 2nd- Big Ten vs. SEC- Alabama vs. Penn State- The Crimson Tide remain one of our first teams out.
AutoZone Liberty Bowl- January 2nd- Big 12 vs. SEC- Auburn vs. Kansas State
ServPro First Responder Bowl- January 2nd- AAC/ACC-Big 12- North Carolina State vs. Arizona
TaxSlayer Gator Bowl- December 30th- ACC vs. SEC- Virginia Tech vs. Oklahoma
Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl: December 30th- Big Ten vs. SEC- Florida vs. Nebraska
Reliaquest Bowl: December 31st- SEC vs. Big Ten- Tennessee vs. Michigan- A lot has been said will continue to be following the end of the Western Michigan-Michigan game. It doesn’t get any easier for the Wolverines, who respond against Oklahoma on Saturday in one of the weekend’s biggest games.
Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl: December 31st- ACC/Notre Dame vs. Pac-12- California vs. Utah*- The Utes go to El Paso as a legacy Pac-12 member.
Las Vegas Bowl: December 31st- SEC vs. Pac-12- Texas A&M vs. Arizona State- *The Sun Devils go as a legacy Pac-12 team.
Kinder’s Texas Bowl- December 31st- SEC vs. Big 12- Missouri vs. West Virginia
USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect
That’s our first group of picks. As we move along with our 2026 bowl projections after week one, let’s move to the contests after the big holiday.
Post-Christmas Games
Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl: December 26th- ACC/Notre Dame vs. Big Ten- Georgia Tech vs. Wisconsin
Wasabi Fenway Bowl: December 27th- ACC/Notre Dame vs. American- Pittsburgh vs. Navy
Duke’s Mayo Bowl: December 26th- ACC/Notre Dame vs. Big Ten- Clemson vs. Iowa- Not much more can be said other than that was quite the ugly loss for the Tigers on Saturday.
68 Ventures Bowl: December 26th- Conference USA/Mid-American/Sun Belt- Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana Tech
Cactus Bowl – December 26th: Big Ten vs. Big 12 – Illinois vs. TCU – The former Rate Bowl is renamed the Cactus Bowl for 2026.
Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl: December 27th- MAC vs. MWC- Utah State vs. Buffalo
Freedom Mortgage Military Bowl: December 28th- ACC/Notre Dame vs. American- Tulane vs. Wake Forest
Trust & Will Holiday Bowl- ACC vs. Pac-12- USC* vs. Virginia- The Trojans go as a legacy Pac-12 squad.
JLab Birmingham Bowl: December 29th- American/ACC/SEC- Vanderbilt vs. Duke
Pop-Tarts Bowl: December 29th- ACC/Notre Dame vs. Big 12- Louisville vs. Houston- As proven by the game with Ole Miss, the Cardinals are a legit contender in the ACC this season.
Valero Alamo Bowl: December 29th- Big 12 vs. Pac-12- BYU vs. Washington*- The Huskies go to San Antonio as a legacy Pac-12 member.
We are moving right along with our 2026 bowl projections after week one. Time now for the opening contests of bowl season.
First Week Games
Cricket Celebration Bowl- December 12th- MEAC vs. SWAC- South Carolina State vs. Alabama State
IS4S Salute To Veterans Bowl: December 15th- Conference USA/MAC/Sun Belt- Old Dominion vs. Ohio
Frisco Football Classic- December 15th- Conference USA vs. Sun Belt- Louisiana vs. Delaware
Boca Raton Bowl: December 18th- American/Conference USA/MAC/Mountain West/Sun Belt- Liberty vs. Marshall
Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl: December 19th- American/ACC/Notre Dame/SEC- Memphis vs. South Carolina- The Tigers knocked off UNLV in their first game and now get a shot at Boise State this week in hopes of claiming that Group Of Six bid.
As we wrap up our 2026 bowl projections after week one, let’s move to the games before the big holiday. One thing you’ll notice is that there are a lot more games before Christmas this year.
Bowls Right Before Christmas
Myrtle Beach Bowl: December 21st- Conference USA/MAC/Sun Belt- Arkansas State vs. Central Michigan
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: December 21st- Mountain West vs. MAC- North Dakota State vs. Toledo- We do indeed have the Bison making a bowl in their first season at the FBS level.
Puerto Rico Bowl- December 22nd- MAC vs. American/CUSA/MWC/SBC- Miami (Ohio) vs. East Carolina
StaffDNA Cure Bowl- December 22nd- AAC/CUSA/MAC/SBC- South Florida vs. UConn
Radience Technologies Independence Bowl- December 22nd- Big 12 vs. Conference USA- Colorado vs. Kennesaw State
New Orleans Bowl: December 23rd- Conference USA vs. Sun Belt– Western Kentucky vs. James Madison
Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl- December 23rd- Big 12 vs. AAC/MWC/SBC- Baylor vs. Army
Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl: December 23rd- AAC/CUSA/MAC/MWC/SBC- Washington State+ vs. UCLA+- We’re pulling a couple of schools from the Pac-12 and Big Ten to create an old school Pac-12 matchup.
SDCCU Poinsettia Bowl- Pac-12 vs. Mountain West- San Diego State vs. Air Force
Isleta New Mexico Bowl- December 24th- MWC vs. AAC/CUSA/MAC/SBC- UNLV vs. Florida International
Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl: December 24th- American vs. Mountain West- Hawai’i vs. Colorado State
Thanks for checking out our 2026 bowl projections after week one here at Last Word On College Football.
