Oklahoma vs Michigan Prediction: Odds, expert picks, team and player news, betting trends, and stats

The Michigan Wolverines (1-0) have been one of the talking points in the College Football world this past week following their controversial walk-off winning touchdown via a Bryce Underwood Hail Mary. Michigan will host the #11 ranked Oklahoma Sooners (1-0) in the Big House as they look for revenge after losing to Oklahoma 24-13 in Norman last year. Entering Week 1, Michigan was a -1.5 point favorite at home versus Oklahoma, but the line has flipped to the Sooners being favored by -5.5 points!

Michigan had a players only meeting led by the captains following their one-point win versus Western Michigan. The Wolverines offense struggled with five drives that lasted four plays or less and didn't have 100 passing yards entering the fourth quarter. Head Coach Kyle Whittingham spoke about how nobody's starting spot is safe and attempted to light a fire under his players. Michigan has a lot of motivation from within the program and outside of it, now let's see what they do with it!

Oklahoma shut out UTEP, 51-0 in the season opener. John Mateer tossed three touchdowns and 225 passing yards, the defense held the Miners to 86 passing yards, and 2-of-13 on third downs. The Sooners defense looked as advertised registering four sacks and 10 tackles for loss, plus two fumbles. Last year, Oklahoma's defense held Underwood in check with 142 passing yards and 3-of-14 third downs converted. This was supposed to be the first of six ranked games for Oklahoma, but the committee took Michigan out of the Top 25.

Let’s dive into the schools on both sides of the ball, look at a few key players, and see where the numbers take us.

Game Details and How to Watch Oklahoma vs Michigan

• Date: Saturday, September 12, 2026
• Time: 12:00 PM Eastern
• Site: Michigan Stadium
• City: Ann Arbor, MI
• TV/Streaming: FOX

Game Odds for Michigan vs Oklahoma

The latest odds as of Wednesday courtesy of DraftKings:

• Moneyline: Michigan Wolverines (+190), Oklahoma Sooners (-230)
• Spread: Oklahoma -5.5 (-115)
• Total: 43.5 points

Michigan Wolverines

Head Coach: Kyle Whittingham
2026 Record: 1-0 (0-0)
Offensive Points Per Game: 13.0 (T-70th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 12.0 (19th)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 16th

The Michigan Wolverines Offense:

Michigan turned the ball over three times against Western Michigan, was 3-for-10 on third downs, had five drives of four players or less, and had 12 first downs to WMU's 16. There is a lot of work to be done ahead of hosting Oklahoma. Bryce Underwood threw a touchdown and ran another in, but also was responsible for two of the three turnovers. The Wolverines running game struggled behind Jordan Marshall (44 yards) and Savion Hiter (15 yards) combining for 59 rushing yards on 20 carries. On the bright side, Michigan only allowed one sack and Oklahoma's front seven is ferocious.

Michigan Player to Watch on Offense: QB Bryce Underwood

In the post game interview following Michigan's win over Western Michigan, head coach Kyle Whittingham said that Bryce Underwood as the starting quarterback isn't infinite. Could you blame him after that near disaster? Underwood had 170 yards on 12-of-22 passing (54.5%), one touchdown, one lost fumble, one interception, and nine carries for 47 yards and another score. If Underwood didn't complete that Hail Mary, he would have ended up with 123 passing yards. Underwood was the leading rusher too, so the offense could be in trouble against Oklahoma if Underwood isn't able to make throws down the field or with his legs.

The Michigan Wolverines Defense:

Michigan fans all know that Week 1 wasn't the defenses fault. The Wolverines held Western Michigan to 89 passing yards, 2.9 yards per carry, and forced three fumbles. Four different players had at least nine tackles and the defense totaled six tackles for a loss. Last year, Oklahoma outgained Michigan in yards, 408-288, and the Sooners offense had five drives of at least eight plays and four drives of 10-plus plays. Michigan will at least have the home crowd behind them, but containing Mateer will be a problem in the Big House.

Michigan Player to Watch on Defense: DL Dom Nichols

Dom Nichols has been vocal this week about the matchup versus Oklahoma. He's been quoted as saying Mateer won't get away from him and that Nichols wants to be the X-factor on Saturday. Well, Nichols had 1.5 sacks and nine tackles against Western Michigan. He had one sack in his first two seasons with Michigan, so Nichols could be a breakout player on this star studded defense. He's certainly has my attention this Saturday at noon Eastern.

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Oklahoma Sooners

Head Coach: Brent Venables
2026 Record: 1-0 (0-0)
Offensive Points Per Game: 51.0 (T-8th)
Defensive Points Per Game: 0.0 (T-1st)
2026 Strength of Schedule: 61st

The Oklahoma Sooners Offense:

The Sooners offense hummed to 51 points on just 401 yards of offense thanks to three field goals, an 88-yard punt return touchdown from Isaiah Satenga III, three passing scores from John Mateer, plus two short rushing scores. All in all, Oklahoma had five offensive touchdowns and three field goals on 11 drives. Last year, the Sooners outgained the Wolverines 408-288 at home and had 22 first downs to Michigan's 12.

Oklahoma Player to Watch on Offense: QB John Mateer

John Mateer opened his senior season with 225 passing yards and three touchdowns against UTEP. Mateer didn't need to show off his legs, only running the rock three times for seven yards. Last year, Mateer was an issue on the ground versus Michigan. Mateer ran for two touchdowns and 74 yards on 19 attempts. On the season, Mateer ran for 431 yards with Oklahoma and eight touchdowns, which was down from 15 scores and 826 yards with Washington State in 2024. Mateer also threw a touchdown and 270 yards on 21-of-34 passing (61.8%) against Michigan last year. In all, Mateer totaled 344 yards and three touchdowns (two rush, one pass), plus an interception. Will he have an encore on the road in the Big House?

The Oklahoma Sooners Defense:

Oklahoma held UTEP to 198 total yards, 86 passing and 112 rushing, plus 2-of-13 on third downs. The Sooners defense was expected to be an elite unit once again following 16.5 point per game allowed last year (6th) and they haven't disappointed yet. Oklahoma was 3-1 to the Under in true road games last season mostly because the defense allowed 3, 7, 27, and 21 points for 14.5 points per game. After only scoring 13 points versus Western Michigan, the Wolverines Team Total moved from 23.5 to 18.5. Oddsmakers expect Oklahoma's defense to travel well.

Oklahoma Player to Watch on Defense: LB Kip Lewis

Kip Lewis opened his 2026 season with three tackles and a half-sack versus UTEP. The Sooners linebacker led the team in tackling last season and was third in 2024. Last year against Michigan, Lewis had six tackles, ranking second on the team. In the two biggest road games last year, Lewis had 10 tackles and a half-sack at Tennessee, plus seven tackles and two sacks at Alabama. You can expect Lewis to be a ball hawk at Michigan and put pressure on Underwood.

Michigan and Oklahoma Team Stats, Betting Trends

• Michigan was 2-4 ATS at home last season and 5-9 ATS over the past two years
• Oklahoma was a perfect 4-0 ATS in true road games last year
• The Wolverines are 4-6 ATS in the last 10 games as a home underdog dating back to 2015
• Oklahoma was 4-5-1 ATS as a favorite last season
• Oklahoma was 8-2 on the ML as a favorite last season
• Oklahoma is 21-6 on the ML as a favorite since 2023
• Michigan was 4-2 to the Under at home last season
• Oklahoma was 3-1 to the Under in true road games last year
• Bryce Underwood had 142 passing yards vs Oklahoma last season, the third-lowest of his career
• John Mateer recorded 344 total yards and three touchdowns vs Michigan last season

Rotoworld Best Bets

Vaughn Dalzell (@VmoneySports) leans the Under between Oklahoma and Michigan, plus the Wolverines in the first quarter:

"The line movement in this game was absolutely warranted given how Michigan looked in Week 1. This week, the captains held a players only meeting to regroup after nearly losing and an attempt to drown out the noise. If there is anytime to back Michigan in this game, I would say it's the first quarter at the +0.5 point spread.

Michigan should be motivated from being unranked and they are back at home versus a team they lost to last year. I see a defensive battle ensuing. Michigan's defense can carry them and Oklahoma is one of the best units in the country. Under 43.5 is a lean after it moved off of 45.5 and 46.5."

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