Ohio State-Texas is closest thing college football has to a Playoff game in September
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To find a nonconference matchup with the same weight as No. 1 Ohio State against No. 4 Texas, you’ll have to go all the way back to the last time these two teams met.
OK, so that was just over a calendar year ago: Ohio State 14, Texas 7. The most vivid impact of that result on the Power Four came when the three-loss Longhorns were bypassed for an at-large College Football Playoff berth.
More than just a rematch to decide who tops the US LBM Coaches Poll, this one is guaranteed to have an impact on the Heisman Trophy, the playoff and which teams and conferences compete for the national championship.
To get ready for Saturday, USA TODAY Sports breaks down how each team wins, how the result could shape the competition for national hardware and the potential fallout when the selection committee fills out their bracket in early December:
How does Texas football beat Ohio State?
It would be unreasonable to ask the Longhorns’ defense to again hold Ohio State to two scores given how far the Buckeyes’ offense has come since last year’s opener. Twelve months later, quarterback Julian Sayin is much more comfortable in the starting role, there is even more depth at the skill positions and the scheme has been tweaked with updates from former NFL head coach and new coordinator Arthur Smith.
The key to a win on Saturday will be going punch for punch and score for score with the Buckeyes. That’s definitely doable based on how Steve Sarkisian and his staff have remade the offense behind key transfers such as wide receiver Cam Coleman and running back Hollywood Smothers.
But the biggest factor will be turnovers. Since the start of the Arch Manning era last season, the Longhorns are a perfect 11-0 when ahead in the turnover battle but 0-3 when losing or tied, starting with last year’s loss at OSU.
On the other sideline, the Buckeyes were behind or tied in turnover margin in all six of their losses since the start of the 2023 season.
How does Ohio State beat Texas?
The blueprint is already there from a year ago: OSU was able to make Manning uncomfortable and upset the Longhorns’ timing and confidence. Offensively, the Buckeyes took a more cautious approach behind a first-year starter.
While the offense is much more likely to push the envelope, the mentality on defense should remain the same. The key to an OSU win will be to force Manning up or out of the pocket while limiting the sort of explosive plays that can flip the field and momentum.
That won’t be easy. Coleman has given Texas a big-bodied, NFL-ready option capable of transforming Manning’s production in the red zone; he had two touchdown grabs on three catches in the opener against Texas State. Smothers’ value as a runner is doubled by his ability to make a difference as a receiver.
Will Arch Manning become the favorite for the Heisman?
Jeremiah Smith could come out of Week 2 as the Heisman favorite should he put together another dominant Saturday. Looking ahead, how Heisman voters weigh Smith and Sayin will be one of the dominant themes of this year’s race.
But there’s no doubt that a solid game and a win would vault Manning to the forefront of the Heisman debate.
He has everything a Heisman winner needs: immense name recognition, a major platform, a talented supporting cast and multiple chances to make a high-profile statement.
All that’s missing is a defining moment. He’ll have that opportunity on Saturday night.
What happens if Texas beats Ohio State?
There would be a new No. 1 in the Coaches Poll, for starters. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg.
Texas will gain enormous credibility with the selection committee and will have the room for error to lose twice or even three times in the SEC and still make the playoff, should the third loss come in the conference championship game.
An even bigger impact may be seen on how the committee compares the Big Ten and SEC. Both leagues are virtually guaranteed to place three teams in the playoff. But a Texas win will influence where these teams fall in the bracket and could allow for a fourth or even fifth SEC team, depending on what happens elsewhere in the Power Four.
While national championships determine which of these two conferences are seen as the nation’s best, a win by the Longhorns would greatly increase the credibility of the SEC in the comparison to the Big Ten.
What happens if Ohio State beats Texas?
Winning on the road would cement the Buckeyes’ place as the best team in the country and the unquestioned No. 1 in the Coaches Poll.
And as with Texas and the SEC, an OSU win would put the Big Ten in early position to have more than three playoff teams.
Based on the Coaches Poll, the Buckeyes, No. 5 Indiana and No. 6 Oregon are heavily favored to make the bracket. While this top three is hard to beat, the SEC is perceived as being much deeper overall, which is why the league placed five teams in last season’s tournament.
The fact that the SEC went 0-3 in the playoff against fellow Power Four teams could linger in the committee’s minds as they being deliberating in early November. This could lead to a fiercer debate when comparing the second level of playoff contenders from each league.
This might be the biggest fallout from Saturday’s result. An OSU win could be the deciding factor that gives contenders such as No. 14 Southern California, No. 16 Penn State, No. 19 Washington and No. 21 Iowa the benefit of the doubt in the comparison with similar contenders from the SEC, should these Big Ten teams finish the regular season with two or fewer losses.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Ohio State-Texas is closest thing college football has to a Playoff game in September
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