Why Vanderbilt football vs Tennessee could be biggest game ever in the rivalry

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This weekend's matchup between Vanderbilt and Tennessee has the chance to be the best one ever.

The rivalry has been contested since 1892, but this is the first time that the two schools have met while both were ranked. No. 12 Vanderbilt (9-2, 5-2 SEC) is looking for its first 10-win season, and a potential College Football Playoff berth to boot. The 18th-ranked Vols (8-3, 4-3) are looking to play spoiler in a role reversal from what is typical.

Better yet, the contest at Neyland Stadium on Nov. 29 (2:30 p.m. CT, ESPN) is projected to be a close game. Betting lines have Tennessee a 2½-point favorite. ESPN's SP+ gives the Vols a 52% chance to win, while College Football Graphs has Tennessee at 50.5%.

There's also the matter of the stylistic gulfs between the teams, with the Vols' up-tempo style compared with the Commodores' grind-it-out offense. There's the fact that Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia and Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar are part of the same lawsuit attempting to end junior college eligibility rules. And then there's the fact that Pavia said in a podcast appearance before the season that the Commodores would "run Tennessee."

The Vols have won the last six straight in the rivalry (two of the wins were later vacated) but it wasn't too long ago that Vanderbilt won five times in seven tries against the Vols.

Here's why the matchup looms so large:

Tennessee could knock Vanderbilt out of CFP for the first time

There have been games in the rivalry where Tennessee knocked Vanderbilt out of the running to qualify for a bowl (2022) and vice versa (2005). In 2018, both teams came in needing a win to get bowl eligible. Vanderbilt has had a few opportunities to knock the Vols out of the College Football Playoff or its predecessor BCS national championship, but has never succeeded in doing so.

Tennessee has never had the chance to do the same to the Commodores, mostly because Vanderbilt has never been in this situation before − its last nine-win regular season was in 1915 (a year it beat Tennessee, 35-0).

Of course, a playoff berth isn't guaranteed, even with a Vanderbilt win, the same way it was for the Vols last year. Most betting odds and projections have Vanderbilt at only a 50/50 chance to make the playoff even with a victory because of the number of teams likely to finish the season with 10 wins. But the Commodores have effectively no chance at the playoff if they lose.

How a win would impact Vanderbilt's CFP chances

A win over Tennessee would unequivocally be the best win on Vanderbilt's resume. Missouri has been in and out of the top 25 all season and is not currently ranked in the US LBM Coaches Poll. The Commodores also don't have a road win over a team with a winning record.

The problem as it pertains to the College Football Playoff is that Oklahoma and Alabama, ranked No. 8 and No. 10 in the most recent CFP rankings, also both have a win over Tennessee, plus one other better win apiece. And while the Crimson Tide's loss to Florida State hasn't aged well, Alabama has a head-to-head win over Vanderbilt that would likely be the deciding factor were the two to be compared against each other.

The Commodores likely need a loss by one of those two teams or Notre Dame to qualify at 10-2, while also needing Texas Tech to win the Big 12. An Ole Miss loss to Mississippi State might put Vanderbilt ahead of the Rebels, but that can't be determined definitively.

Diego Pavia searching for his Heisman moment

Rivalry games matter a lot to Heisman voters. Pavia has struck the Heisman pose multiple times this season, but the originator of that trend, former Michigan receiver Desmond Howard, made it so iconic because he struck the pose after scoring a punt return touchdown against Ohio State. It just doesn't hit the same when it's against Kentucky or LSU.

A big game against Tennessee would make calls to give Pavia the Heisman deafening, but a poor game would likely knock him out of the race. Just look at what happened to Peyton Manning in 1997.

The week before taking on Vanderbilt for the final game of the regular season, Manning threw for a whopping 523 yards against Kentucky. (Sound familiar? Pavia broke the school record with 484 yards against the Wildcats last week.) But against the Commodores, Manning threw for just 159 yards, completed less than half his passes, took two sacks and threw one touchdown to one interception. Tennessee won the game, 17-10, but Manning lost the Heisman to Michigan defensive back Charles Woodson.

Pavia will have plenty of chances to avoid Manning's fate in a nationally televised game that is likely the best one in its time slot.

Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at agerson@gannett.com or on X @aria_gerson.

This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Vanderbilt vs Tennessee could be best game in rivalry with Diego Pavia

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