Ohio State Emerges as 2026 National Championship Favorite, Computer Says

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Ohio State has emerged as the new national championship favorite following Week 2, according to the latest projections from The Action Network’s College Football Supercomputer.

That’s a massive change from where the Buckeyes stood entering the season.

The model has simulated the remainder of the 2026 season and the 12-team College Football Playoff 20,000 times, using a combination of opponent-adjusted in-season performance and preseason team strength.

After those simulations, Ohio State now has a 20.2% chance of winning the national championship.

That’s up considerably from the 13.0% chance the Buckeyes had entering the season. Their playoff probability has also jumped from 67.8% to 80.5%.

And that’s where things get interesting.

Ohio State isn’t simply being carried by its preseason reputation. The Buckeyes opened the season with a 56-3 destruction of Ball State, and they now face a much more meaningful test against Texas in Austin.

If Ohio State can handle that challenge, the computer’s optimism may look even more justified.

Ohio State Has the Talent to Actually Win It All

There is a reason Ohio State keeps finding itself near the top of every championship projection.

The Buckeyes reload better than almost anyone in college football, and their current roster once again has elite talent on both sides of the ball. That depth matters enormously in a 12-team playoff format where a championship contender potentially has to win four postseason games.

Ohio State also has a quarterback in Julian Sayin who has already been beset by an impressive collection of playmakers, including Jeremiah Smith. The Buckeyes’ passing attack was one of the major reasons the program entered the season with championship expectations, and they showed just how explosive the offense could be in the 56-3 win over Ball State.

But the biggest reason to believe in Ohio State might be the program’s ability to handle a difficult schedule.

The Buckeyes don’t have the luxury of coasting through the season. Texas is waiting in Week 2, followed by Kent State, Illinois and eventually the rest of a Big Ten schedule that includes several legitimate threats.

That could actually help Ohio State.

If Ryan Day’s team emerges from those games battle-tested and healthy, it should enter the playoff with considerably more experience than some of the other contenders.

The computer already gives Ohio State an 80.5% chance to reach the playoff.

Now it’s up to the Buckeyes to prove they can go all the way.

Buckeyes Aren’t the Only Team With a Legitimate Chance

The most interesting part of the projections may be that Ohio State isn’t even the team with the highest playoff probability.

The data backs up Indiana as a legit contender.

The Hoosiers have an 83.7% chance of reaching the playoff, slightly ahead of Ohio State, but their championship probability sits below the Buckeyes. That’s an important distinction. The model believes Indiana is extremely likely to get into the postseason but considers Ohio State more likely to win once it gets there.

Texas Tech remains another fascinating contender despite falling from an 11.3% championship probability to 6.8%. Its playoff probability also dropped from 88.4% to 77.8%, but those numbers still put the Red Raiders firmly in the conversation.

Penn State is moving in the opposite direction. Its playoff probability jumped from 29.0% to 42.1%, while USC climbed from 20.5% to 31.5%.

And then there are the teams that took major hits.

Clemson’s playoff probability collapsed from 10.5% to just 2.3%, while Memphis was one of the biggest risers, more than tripling its playoff odds from 5.6% to 17.5%.

That is what makes these projections so interesting this early in the season.

The model isn’t saying Ohio State has a 20.2% chance because the Buckeyes are locks to be the best team.

It’s saying Ohio State currently has the best combination of strength, schedule, playoff probability and championship upside.

And after what happened last season, the Buckeyes would certainly like to turn that projection into something tangible.

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