College Football Playoff Predictions: What Is the Ceiling for Arch Manning and Texas After Week 2 Win?
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The college football Week 2 schedule promised us one of the best games of the season, and boy, did it deliver. The Ohio State Buckeyes and Texas Longhorns played out a classic that significantly impacts the directions of both teams. Our College Football Playoff predictions provide a pathway to the postseason and the ultimate glory for them, and 10 other programs.
College Football Playoff Predictions | First Round
- No. 12 Boise State vs. No. 5 Texas
- No. 9 Ole Miss vs. No. 8 LSU
- No. 11 USC vs. No. 6 Ohio State
- No. 10 Alabama vs. No. 7 Notre Dame
After playing the Oregon Ducks close in Week 1, the Boise State Broncos overcame a top Group of Six battle with the Memphis Tigers to continue their course towards the College Football Playoff as the highest-ranked team from outside the Power Four. Spencer Danielson’s team currently has a 34.2% of making the final 12 according to PFN’s College Football Playoff Meter (FPM).
I’m not sure the Broncos would be Choosin’ Texas as a first-round opponent, but that’s what they’ve got here in our College Football Playoff predictions. Steve Sarkisian’s team recovered from a slow start against Ohio State to grab a statement win, but they still sit behind the Georgia Bulldogs in the race for the SEC title, resulting in missing out on a first-round bye.
While I don’t subscribe to the notion that the SEC lives up to its “Just Means More” motto, it’s hard to argue that the conference is in a great spot to have a stranglehold on the playoff. Week 3 will see the Lane Kiffin Bowl dominate the headlines, and the loser of that game won’t necessarily fall out of playoff contention. In fact, they meet again in the postseason here.
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Just a week ago, Ohio State’s path to a national title appeared to run through a first-round bye, but the defeat to Texas puts them in a precarious position. The PFN FPM still gives Ryan Day’s team a 66.4% chance of making the playoff, with a 48.1% chance of reaching the Big Ten Championship Game. Our College Football Playoff predictions point to at least one more defeat there.
Oregon’s defeat to the Oklahoma State Cowboys throws the Big Ten picture into absolute chaos, especially when you consider how many of the top teams face each other in the regular season. While the Ducks should rebound, the Week 2 defeat opens the door for the USC Trojans, who currently have a 46.5% chance of reaching the postseason party, per PFN’s FPM.
Unsurprisingly, the Notre Dame Fighting Irish overcame the Rice Owls in dominant fashion in Week 2, and Marcus Freeman’s team has the best chance (85.9%) of any team to reach the College Football Playoff. Their seeding here is based on a presumed loss to the Miami Hurricanes, but the Irish have the talent to make a deep run at the end of the regular season.
For one half of their Week 2 clash with the Kentucky Wildcats, the Alabama Crimson Tide appeared to have more question marks hanging over them than any other team with title aspirations. But they rallied in the second half, giving us a glimpse of the vision the program clearly saw when handing out Kalen DeBoer a massive contract extension this offseason.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Quarterfinal
- Fiesta Bowl: No. 4 Miami (FL) vs. No. 6 Ohio State
- Peach Bowl: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 9 Ole Miss
- Cotton Bowl: No. 4 BYU vs. No. 5 Texas
- Rose Bowl: No. 2 Indiana vs. No. 7 Notre Dame
No team in the country has a higher percentage chance of winning their conference than Miami (80.8%), according to PFN’s FPM, and our College Football Playoff predictions slot the Hurricanes into the fourth seed and a potential 2025 postseason rematch with the Buckeyes. They might have won the national title a year ago if they’d had Darian Mensah under center.
Georgia has a 20.4% chance of winning the SEC, and what we saw out of the Bulldogs in their Week 2 win over the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers should terrify the rest of college football. Kirby Smart’s team lacks a star in the traditional sense, but is highly talented, deep at every position, and is on a collision course with a national title. Ole Miss might not stand a chance.
The national media spent the offseason focusing on the Texas Tech Raiders as a de facto repeat Big 12 champion, and somehow forgot about BYU. The retention of Kalani Sitake and key roster components makes this Cougars team especially dangerous, and our College Football Playoff predictions project an old vs. new Big 12 battle against Texas.
An undefeated 2025 campaign somehow gave way to the Indiana Hoosiers being underrated across the college football landscape this offseason. Curt Cignetti and new quarterback Josh Hoover have gone about reasserting the program as a force to be reckoned with so far, and the reigning national champions have a 28.3% chance of securing a first-round playoff bye with a second successive Big Ten title.
College Football Playoff Predictions | Semifinal
- Orange Bowl: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 4 Miami (FL)
- Sugar Bowl: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 5 Texas
Texas avoids Georgia in the regular season, which likely sets up a potential SEC Championship Game and potentially a Sugar Bowl rematch. You couldn’t get two more different quarterbacks from an attention perspective, with the light shining on Arch Manning’s every move and Gunner Stockton going about his business away from the national glare despite his talent.
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Miami has had the beating of Notre Dame the last two times they’ve met, and our College Football Playoff predictions assume that the regular season matchup also favors the Hurricanes. Come the end of the season, however, you’d have to think that Freeman would have figured out how to maximize the talent on his roster to minimize the firepower that the ‘Canes bring to the table.
College Football Playoff National Championship Game
- No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 5 Georgia
Notre Dame currently has a 9.9% chance to win the national championship, per PFN’s FPM, but can they overcome a Bulldogs team built to win it all? This might not be the College Football Playoff National Championship Game that the casual fan wants to see, lacking the type of hype that a Jeremiah Smith or Arch Manning-level protagonist would bring, but it would be a legitimate slugfest between two ridiculously talented programs.
This article originally appeared on Pro Football Network.
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