Updated ESPN FPI predictions for every Penn State game in 2026

Updated ESPN FPI predictions for every Penn State game in 2026

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Updated ESPN FPI predictions for every Penn State game in 2026

The computers have been updated with all of the data from Week 2 and Penn State's win percentage predictions for each remaining game this season have been updated by ESPN's analytics department. Going into Week 3, the future outlook continues to look promising for the Nittany Lions.

Penn State is still favored in every remaining game according to ESPN's win predictability metrics. However, a handful of games saw the winning percentage adjusted against the Nittany Lions following the results of Week 2. The gamer that saw the biggest negative adjustment was the final game of the regular season against Maryland, but the odds are still greatly in Penn State's favor at the end of the season.

More notably, Penn State's win percentage prediction for the big home game against USC in Week 6 dropped 1.4 percentage points, but Penn State is still getting a 60% chance of topping the Trojans. The following week, at Michigan, continues to look like a coin flip according to the win percentages from ESPN. After Michigan's win over Oklahoma, Penn State is still forecasted as the slight favorite, but the percentage dropped from 56.3% to 54.0%.

Penn State's odds dropped in a few other games against Purdue and Rutgers, but Penn State is still a decisive favorite according to the win percentage prediction.

Here is how ESPN's FPI matchup predictor forecasts Penn State's chances in every game remaining in the 2026 regular season entering Week 3.

Week 3 vs. Buffalo

Buffalo quarterback Ta'Quan Roberson scrambles with the ball during the first half of a game against Kent State, Sept. 13, 2025, at Dix Stadium in Kent, Ohio.

  • Saturday, Sept. 19
  • Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
  • ESPN FPI: 98.3% (was 98.1%)

Week 4 vs. Wisconsin

Sep 20, 2025; Madison, Wisconsin, USA; Wisconsin Badgers mascot Bucky Badger does push ups following a field goal during the third quarter against the Maryland Terrapins at Camp Randall Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

  • Saturday, Sept. 26
  • Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
  • ESPN FPI: 88.3 (was 86.2%)

Week 5 at Northwestern

Nov 22, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; The Northwestern Wildcats celebrate after their victory against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images

  • Friday, Oct. 2
  • Ryan Field (Evanston, Illinois)
  • ESPN FPI: 80.8% (was 82.1%)

Week 6 vs. USC

Jul 28, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; USC Football head coach Lincoln Riley speaks during Media Days at Hilton Chicago. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

  • Saturday, Oct. 10
  • Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
  • ESPN FPI: 60.4% (was 61.8%)

Week 7 at Michigan

Oklahoma Sooners defensive lineman R Mason Thomas (32) chases after Michigan Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) during a college football game between the University of Oklahoma Sooners (OU) and the University of Michigan Wolverines at Gaylord Family Ð Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Okla., Saturday, Sept. 6, 2025. Oklahoma won 24-13.

  • Saturday, Oct. 17
  • Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)
  • ESPN FPI: 54.0% (was 56.3%)

Week 9 vs. Purdue

Sep 20, 2025; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Purdue mascot Purdue Pete cheers against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the first half at Notre Dame Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

  • Saturday, Oct. 31
  • Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
  • ESPN FPI: 91.5% (was 93.1%)

Week 10 at Washington

The Washington Huskies take the field prior to the NCAA football game against the Ohio State Buckeyes at Husky Stadium in Seattle on Sept. 27, 2025.

  • Saturday, Nov. 7
  • Husky Stadium (Seattle, Washington)
  • ESPN FPI: 68.6% (was 59.3%)

Week 11 vs. Minnesota

Iowa football travels to Minneapolis for an Oct. 24 game against Minnesota. The Golden Gophers were 8-5 last season.

  • Saturday, Nov. 14
  • Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
  • ESPN FPI: 92.6% (was 89.7%)

Week 12 vs. Rutgers

Dec 26, 2024; Phoenix, AZ, USA; Rutgers Scarlet Knights mascot Sir Henry during the Rate Bowl at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

  • Saturday, Nov. 21
  • Beaver Stadium (University Park, Pennsylvania)
  • ESPN FPI: 96.0% (was 96.2%)

Week 13 at Maryland

Dec 30, 2023; Nashville, TN, USA; The Maryland Terrapins mascot Testudo dances before the game against the Auburn Tigers at Nissan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Christopher Hanewinckel-USA TODAY Sports

  • Saturday, Nov. 28
  • SECU Stadium (College Park, Maryland)
  • ESPN FPI: 75.3% (was 82.1%)

Kevin McGuire is the lead writer for Nittany Lions Wire, part of the USA TODAY Network. Follow him on BlueSky, Threads or any of these other platforms.

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This article originally appeared on Nittany Lions Wire: Updated ESPN FPI predictions for every Penn State game in 2026

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