Week 3 college football odds, storylines: Best bets for the 5 biggest games

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The slippery slope and razor-thin margins of sports betting in two parts: 

  • Our 2-3 official record from Week 2 depends entirely on whether you gave 1.5 points with Texas or found yourself a cheap moneyline

  • Arizona State, getting more than two touchdowns, probably covers a game where it outgained Texas A&M 369-255 roughly three-quarters of the time 

In each way, we received a reminder about the nature of college football in Week 2. Luckily, it's early enough in the season to do something about it. 

For this week's "Movers and Shakers" in the betting market, a trio of teams are glad to still have time to do something about a blow they took Saturday. 

Ohio State's blown 23-3 lead in the fourth quarter in Austin shouldn't be the difference between whether the Buckeyes make or miss the College Football Playoff, but the Longhorns still seem to think that their loss in Columbus last season was the reason they were left out of the 2025 CFP (even if it probably had more to do with losing to Florida), so, who knows?

The universe overreacted to Michigan having more than a little trouble with Western Michigan, and a game that the betting market had assessed as the Wolverines being a short home favorite in, was re-lined with Oklahoma the favorite in the Big House.

Whoops.

Was a Michigan win more about the Wolverines, or about a Sooners offense that couldn't outscore a Michigan offense that still didn't do much? OU needs to now make a run in the SEC, where its odds have lengthened to 18-1 to win the conference. 

In Group of Six action, Boise State spotted Memphis a 17-3 lead, only to go on a 35-3 run to blow the Tigers out, and storm to the front of the line for the "G6" spot in the playoff. We've already got Week 4's visit to Western Michigan circled on the calendar. 

Last week, we dapped up Tulsa for taking down Oklahoma State for the second year in a row, as the biggest upset of Week 1. Then on Saturday, in a move perfectly "college football-esque," it was the Cowboys' turn to shake up the landscape, beating Oregon in Week 2's only stunner.

While Ohio State still sits as the favorite for the national championship, Oregon falls from one of the favorites before the season down to 18-1. Either the Ducks are not very good, and it opens the door for a team like USC (hosting Oregon Sept. 26) to jump into the top three of the Big Ten, or Oregon's trip to Columbus in November becomes an even more high-leverage spot.

This is the space for the big games of the week. Until teams take a loss or two, you never know what early-season game is going to end up mattering more than we initially thought. We still have very few in-season data points to go off, but there's enough market reaction (or lack thereof) to lead us to one side or another for the best games of Week 3.

No. 22 Houston at No. 13 Texas Tech (-7.5, 53.5)

Gang, we did it!

First, we cashed Iowa State at any number in the CyHawk, but now we're eyeing some series closing line value from our preseason look at the "Game of the Year" lookahead lines for Friday's Big 12 prime-time tilt, as Houston might be the only ranked team that Texas Tech faces all regular season. 

It's still early, but the Red Raiders have a quarterback that doesn't look 100% in returning from a torn ACL last season, and a defense that's still waiting for stars to emerge on the level of early first-round draft pick David Bailey. Meanwhile, a non-cover in Week 1 against Oregon State looks a lot better for Houston after the Beavers gave Tech all they could handle last week. 

We've already done our work getting the Cougars at +13.5 a few weeks back, but a line that's dropped from -8.5 on reopen, to -7.5, implies Texas Tech is still rated around 80 out of 100, which might still be too high. 

No. 16 SMU at No. 23 Louisville (-1.5, 59.5)

It took Louisville QB Lincoln Kienholz a half of football to get the hang of the starting QB role after three years holding the clipboard at Ohio State, but since the second half started against Ole Miss in Week 1, he's stuffed the stat sheet. 

Unlike Louisville, SMU won its prime-time opener, but a mistake-laden push on a spread of -3 at Florida State didn't do the Mustangs many favors in the betting market, and a convincing win over UC-Davis is little more than a glorified off-week. Especially since Florida State's unconvincing win over New Mexico State in Week Zero hasn't aged well. 

Bet Louisville to beat SMU at sportsbooks right now

Fundamentally, with the emergence of Kienholz (639 passing yards, 111 rushing yards, and seven total touchdowns in three halves) bringing more certainty to what the Cardinals can be, there's no reason not to consider these two teams equal in power rating. Throw three points of home-field advantage the Cardinals' way, and this line could easily be -3.

However, there's a cheap moneyline available … and we've already learned our lesson from the Longhorns last week.

Bet: Louisville ML (-115, DraftKings)

Florida (-2.5, 53.5) at Auburn

The other lesson we re-learned? Don't overreact too much from the first few weeks of the season, as this game was lined as pick'em before the season.

While Florida's market rating hasn't gone through the roof, per se, the Gators' pantsing of Florida Atlantic and Campbell (of the FCS), isn't exactly indicative of what they can do on a Saturday night in Jordan-Hare. 

At least Auburn's 40-plus-point win last week came against a team (Southern Miss) from the Sun Belt. 

The moving piece in the betting market might be a potential downgrade to the Tigers because they didn't cover as 7.5-point favorites in a Week 1, neutral-site showdown with Baylor. The market didn't think much of the Bears, but the Tigers withstood 99 plays, holding Baylor to 2.3 yards per carry, and (former Gator) DJ Lagway to 50% pass completions, battering him to the point where he had to miss Baylor's second game.

Florida's Jaden Baugh has been lighting up social media with gaudy stats against inferior competition, but Auburn's defense should be more than a significant test. Look for Byrum Brown to be the better quarterback, given Aaron Philo's challenge of playing in hostile environs, and the Tigers to win this outright. 

Neither team comes into this game ranked, but one bet we'd love to make is that whoever does, will be next week.  

Bet: Auburn +2.5

No. 7 LSU (-3, 58.5) at No. 8 Ole Miss 

Oh, what's this doing here? 

Just the game with the biggest, boldest, circle around it on the schedule this season. 

While we'd like to just take the over on Lane Kiffin mentions this week, a home underdog under the lights will have to do. 

LSU crushed Clemson during its chance for a high-profile night game, and the betting market reacted with its version of uproarious applause, bumping a preseason rating of 80/100 to 87/100. Then the Tigers beat up on Louisiana Tech, and Kiffin's group got another up-tick to a 90 rating. By comparison, Ohio State, Texas, Notre Dame, Indiana, Georgia, and, yes, Oregon, came into the season with a rating in the 90s. LSU is there already? 

What if Clemson, a team still uncertain about its quarterback, who couldn't do much offensively at home against Georgia Southern in Week 2, isn't any good? 

Bet Ole Miss to cover the spread against LSU at sportsbooks

Ole Miss knows who its quarterback is, and Trinidad Chambliss might be the best one LSU faces all season (depending on your opinion of Arch Manning). The truth is, if we move past Clemson's branding, going to Oxford for as juiced-up atmosphere as there can be, is the actual first real test for a Tigers team being held in high regard already.

No one's coming out of the SEC unscathed, and even if LSU is really good, this is as good as any setup for the Tigers to get … scathed.

Bet: Ole Miss +3

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo! Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW. 

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