Michigan State vs. No. 3 Notre Dame: Spread and Over/Under Predictions
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Last Week
Michigan State -17.5: Correct
Under 49.5: Correct
Season Total: 3-0-1
I remain undefeated on my picks this season, with the only blemish being a push in Week 1 on Michigan State -10.
Last week, I called for the Spartans' defense to have a massive get-right game, while also predicting that the offense would learn how to finish drives.
Both happened.
Michigan State dominated Eastern Michigan 35-7, scoring 21 unanswered points in the second half while Cam Edwards rushed for 152 yards and two touchdowns.
Now, the undefeated record gets its biggest test yet.
Michigan State vs. No. 3 Notre Dame
The Spartans travel to South Bend for their first road game of the season and their biggest matchup of the year when they rekindle the Megaphone Trophy rivalry with the No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish.
Current odds have Notre Dame favored by 29.5 points, with the over/under sitting at 52.5.
Current Odds:
- Michigan State +29.5 (-115)
- Notre Dame -29.5 (-105)
- Over 52.5 (Even)
- Under 52.5 (-120)
29.5 Point Spread
I won't waste any time choosing the spread.
If you're just here for the bullet points and are skimming through this section, don't worry. The final predictions will be bolded below.
I'm jumping right in to say Vegas has the utmost disrespect for Michigan State, and I love it.
The betting market is essentially asking the Spartans to lose by four touchdowns in South Bend. I simply don't see that happening.
Michigan State has looked significantly different through the first two games of the Pat Fitzgerald era. Alessio Milivojevic has provided stability at quarterback, while Cam Edwards has emerged as a legitimate workhorse in the backfield.
And then there's the Pat Fitzgerald effect.
The Spartans are 2-0 and coming off a 35-7 win over Eastern Michigan, including a second half in which they completely took control of the game.
Meanwhile, Notre Dame is a very good football team. But the hype surrounding the Fighting Irish has already reached the point where some are talking about them as a potential national championship team.
After watching their first two games, I see a team that is very good — but beatable.
This is the type of game where I believe Michigan State can make the oddsmakers regret giving away nearly 30 points.
I'm smashing the Spartans at +29.5.
I would even suggest buying the number down to +28.5 for even money, and I would be comfortable putting up to two units on the play.
Over/Under 52.5
The over/under is where things get much more difficult.
At 52.5, the number feels about as accurate as you can get.
The line seems to suggest a game in which Notre Dame could control the matchup and potentially replicate some of the dominance it showed against Wisconsin. But simply assuming this game will follow that same script would be a mistake.
One of the more interesting parts of this matchup is how little the betting market appears to believe in Michigan State offensively.
Cam Edwards, who is currently Michigan State's leading touchdown scorer, is listed at +120 to score an anytime touchdown.
That price implies a relatively modest expectation for the Spartans' ability to find the end zone.
I'm willing to bet against that expectation.
Still, the total has been breaking my brain as I try to figure out exactly how this game plays out.
I believe both defenses will perform better than expected, but I also expect there to be enough successful drives on both sides to produce points.
And while the line seems to suggest Notre Dame could jump out to a significant lead and then drain the clock, I don't see that game script coming to fruition.
I believe Michigan State keeps this game competitive with its offense, even in a hostile environment at Notre Dame Stadium.
At even money, the over is simply too enticing to pass up.
Final Predictions for Week 3
Michigan State +29.5 (-115)
Over 52.5 (Even)
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