PAC-12 STRUGGLES IN GAMES AGAINST POWER 4 SCHOOLS
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ARGUMENT THAT THEY DESERVE TO BE A POWER CONFERENCE IS NOT EARNED YET
With the exception of Boise State the Conference has alot to prove. There are few surprises, but will they play consistently as winners?
Wrapping up our visit to Orange County for my daughter’s wedding, I still find myself reading and catching up on College Football News. Some voices have high hopes, while others are more grounded in reality. There is the ongoing discussions from the perspective of existing Power 4 conferences, who look at the Group of 6 as more of a nuisance. Some talk is hinting that major schools will not be scheduling smaller schools moving ahead. This has to do with the super conferences wanting more Power 4 head to had battles. The Group of 6 schools have counted on large and really large payouts, with an occasional splattering of upsets. For the Pac-12, their argument is that they deserve to be a Power Conference. I don’t see it that way. They are merely a reconstituted Mountain West Conference. The remainder of the Mountain West is far better than the remaining two schools of the old Pac-12, Washington State and Oregon State. If last years Mountain West Conference was not a Power Conference, then there is no way this rebranded conference deserves to be called that. Granted, Boise State is on top of nearly all the Group of 6 schools. They record and body of work,elevate them to elite status. It’s only a matter of time before a serious discussion is had to add them into the Big 12 Conference. The Mountain West doesn’t quite have that answer, but each week will show us if indeed North Dakota State might fill that bill. Unfortunately the Broncos and Bison do not play each other. That should be an exciting game.
This Weeks Games and Analysis
As we progress to week three, Colorado State is on top of the league with the best W-L record, of 2-0. Boise, Fresno and San Diego, are all 1-1. The remaining teams have yet to win and are all 0-2. The proof in the pudding is when conference play begins. This coming week has some intriguing matchups that might go a long way to clarify the churned butter.
Leading off is a matchup between North Texas and Texas State. The Eagles are coming off a 44-6 thrashing of UNLV, many considered the best team out of the Mountain. They are balanced on offense, led by quarterback Tayven Jackson and Running Back Jaheim White. Texas State led late in their game last week against UTSA, being outscored 14-3. Coach GJ Kinne has his work cut out for him to find a way to close out their games. Pre-season favorite at quarterback Brad Jackson looked human last week tossing two interceptions.Texas State is a three point favorite at home, I think the Bobcats will rebound and their pre-season form and win 35-3. If anyone hasn’t visited the Texas State campus, you should do so. The San Marcos river skirts the eastern edge of campus and students find time to float and study in a beautiful and tranquil setting.
Next up is a money bag game with Utah State and #17 rankedUtah. The Utes are a 28.5 favorite and come into the game 2-0 after beating both Idaho and Arkansas. The Utes are clicking on all cylinders with their offense scoring 107 points in two games, where they are 6th in the country. The Aggies, while showing great desire and determination against Washington last week, will struggle with an in-state clash in Salt Lake City. The Utes have platooned two quarterbacks in Devon Dampier and Byrd Ficklin who both have been efficient. Leading the rushing game is Wayshawn Parker who has 124 yards on 22 carries and three scores.The receiving corp will give the Aggies fits all afternoon with Tight End Noah Bennee, Wide receiver Braden Pegan and aforementioned Parker who is a dynamo out of the backfield, accounting for three scores. I don’t think the Aggies can hold the Utes as they will win 49-10 and control most of the stats in the game.
Next up is Washington State and the Duquesne Dukes. Not much to say here. The Dukes lost to Air Force 34-0 and to Youngstown State 70-13. The hapless Dukes have 142 yards through the air and 209 on the ground, led by Ness Davis at running back with 120 yards, Washington state meanwhile, will enjoy a little patsy this week after dropping two of their first games to Washington and Kansas State. They travel to Arizona next, so give them credit for aggressive scheduling. The Cougars are led by quarterback Caden Pinnick who is also is the leading rusher. The key will be to contain his running. On paper the game looks to be pretty close, but oddsmakers have set a 37.5 Cougar advantage.
The next slated game is Colorado State hosting #11 BYU. Expect Ram fans to pack the house and be lit and obnoxious against the Cougars. They are coming off a season opening 63-7 win against Utah Tech and last week a convincing 28-17 win against Arizona. BYU is led by quarterback Bear Bachmeier who has 415 yards and six touchdowns on 32-46 passing, They have a stellar run game anchored by senior LJ Martin who has 152 yards on the season. Bachmeier has a plethora of receivers including Legend Glasker, a freshman from Lehi Utah, and Kyler Kasper, a 6’6” wide out. This is the one game Colorado State needs in order to be given strong consideration. Alas, the Cougars have a bit more depth and will hold on for a 34-28 win. Good effort CSU.They will get ready for a game in San Antonio against UTSA the following week.
Next up is Boise State at home against South Dakota. The Coyotes are 3-0 after handily dispatching Central Connecticut, N. Colorado and E. Washington. The Coyotes are an offensive juggernaut, having scored 138 points in three games. They are led by quarterback Austyn Modrewski, a 6’5, 215 pound freshman out of Littleton, Colorado, who has thrown for 727 yards, 11 touchdowns against only one pick. They are also strong on the ground with Charles Pierre, Jr. rushing for 261 yards on the season. They are extremely balanced having thrown for 750 yards and rushed for 753. Everyone knows Boise State’s story, just missing taking down Oregon and then manhandling Memphis State. The Broncos are led by senior signal caller Maddux Madsen who has been error free while throwing for four scores. The Broncos like to pound the rock and have 450 yards on the season. Boise State is a 23.5 favorite and should win handily, with a score of 31-17.
Up next is what I think will be the game of the week with San Diego State hosting James Madison. The Dukes were in the college playoff last season along with Boise State. Both teams failed to advance out of the first round, but much credit to be picked. Oddsmakers have the Aztecs as a 2.5 point favorite. Ordinarily with these odds, I would take the home team, but the Aztecs have not drawn large crowds and I think James Madison comes in ready to play and pulls out a 21-16 win over the Aztecs. Despite winning big in week one against Portland State, they couldn’t get the defense off the field last week in their 28-10 loss to UCLA. The Aztec defense will again be asked to bend and not break, but the offense will continue to sputter. Questions about Jayden Denegal and his ability to win are being asked.They do have two productive backs with Lucky Sutton and Javion Kinnard. The passing game is anemic with only 202 yards through the air on 20 completions against 39 attempts and two interceptions. The Aztecs travel to Toledo the following week and they do not have the luxury of looking past anyone at this juncture.
The penultimate game in the Pac-12 is Oregon State hosting Montana. The Grizzlies are 3-0 coming into the game in Corvallis, sporting a 3-0 record. The line is 23.5 and while Montana has beaten all their competition, those games have been lacking in talent. The Grizzlies prefer to run, having accumulated 793 yards, mostly between dual threats Eli Gillman who has 328 yards and seven scores. They also feature wide out Brooks Davis who has 311 yards on 24 receptions. Oregon State might get surprised here. They have superior linemen on both sides of the ball. The Beavers have been close in both of their losses, but I feel an upset in the making with the Grizzlies winning 35-32 over Oregon State.
The final game on tap is an interesting game with Fresno State travelling to the Bay Area to take on long-time rivals San Jose State. These teams play for the Valley Trophy for the last twelve seasons with Fresno State leading 7-5. Overall these two teams have met 88 times. Fresno State leads the overall series 46-39.The Bulldogs hold a 6-4 swing in the last ten games, including a 41-14 victory last season in San Jose. Since Fresno State left the Mountain West, this will be considered a non-conference game for both teams. These teams put up a lot of points when playing each other. Fresno has scored over 60 points twice in the series while the Spartans put up 62 in a 62-52 win in 2013. One of the classic games was the 1986 game where Spartan Quarterback Mike Perez led the Spartans with a come from behind victory on a last second touchdown toss. Both teams combined for 1,072 yards and also an NCAA record in penalties with 36 for 317 yards. The Spartans ruined the Bulldogs undefeated season and went on to win the conference. This game is being played early on due to the Conference Schism. The Bulldogs open as a 6.5 point favorite. Many people are pointing to the Bulldogs as being a conference runner up. They are led by quarterback Jayden Mandall who has thrown for 393 yards and two scores. On the ground they give the ball to Bryson Donelson who has carried for 117 yards and three scores. Over on the Spartan side of the ball, they have found their starter in Hawaii transfer Luke Weaver. He has thrown for 788 yards, eight scores and only one pick. Their resurgence in the run game is centered around senior Jabari Bates who has rushed for 319 yards, but has yet to find the endzone. Being pass-centric, they have been challenged to replace Nick Nash and Danny Scudero from the last two seasons, but several key players have stepped up. Cooper Hoch has 14 receptions for 216 yards and 3 scores and freshman Carson Clark has 19 receptions for 213 yards and 2 scores. Fresno State needs to control Spartan drives, San Jose has started slow even against FCS Cal Poly last weekend, in a 30-20 nailbiter win. Fresno may have a bit more talent, but the Spartans have a lot to prove and so I’m picking San Jose with a 34-31 win.
Pac-12 Standings
The Pac-12 will go 3-5 this week with wins from Texas State, Washington State and Boise State.
Pac-12 Rankings are as follows after week 2. No scientific analysis done, just a gut feeling. Enjoy the weekend as the heat continues to ravage much of the west.
- Boise State
- Colorado State
- San Diego State
- Fresno State
- Oregon State
- Washington State
- Utah State
- Texas State
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