College football upset watch Week 3: Texas Tech, UNC, South Carolina, LSU, Maryland, Colorado
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North Carolina, Mississippi State and Ole Miss are outright underdog picks this week, while Virginia Tech and Northwestern try to hold up as small favorites. We’re highlighting six college football games in Week 3 that carry upset danger, starting with a ranked Big 12 matchup Friday night in Lubbock and ending with three 7:30 p.m. ET kickoffs Saturday.
Each matchup gets an upset grade from 1 to 10, where 1 means the favorite is close to a lock and 10 means the underdog has a clear path to winning outright.
The slate includes two top-10 SEC teams meeting in Oxford and a Clemson team starting a freshman quarterback. This week’s board includes three underdog picks to win outright. Hat tip to Game On Paper for a lot of the advanced stats used in this article.
Houston (+7.5) at Texas Tech: Upset Watch 4
- Total: 52.5
- Kickoff: Friday, September 18, 8 p.m. ET (FOX)
No. 22 Houston and No. 13 Texas Tech open Big 12 play Friday night after both teams beat Oregon State. Houston won 33-20 in Week 1. Texas Tech trailed the Beavers 24-21 with seven minutes left before it won 35-24 on the road last week.
Houston has been better on third down. The Cougars have converted 15 of 21 third-down tries, the best rate in the nation, and their run game has piled up more than 600 yards and nine touchdowns in two games. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders rank 112th in third- and fourth-down success rate allowed.
Still, the defending Big 12 champions have won seven straight games in the series, including a 35-11 win in Houston last season. Red Raiders quarterback Will Hammond has completed 77% of his passes with one interception. However, the Texas Tech run game ranks 131st in expected points added per rush, so Hammond will carry more of the load against a Houston defense that ranks 26th in that category.
Houston quarterback Conner Weigman and one of the nation’s most experienced rosters keep this game close.
Picks: Texas Tech 30-28, Houston +7.5 ATS, Over 52.5
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North Carolina (+3) at Clemson: Upset Watch 10
- Total: 43.5
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 19, 12 p.m. ET (ESPN)
North Carolina coach Bill Belichick brings a 2-0 team to Clemson, and his defense gets a freshman quarterback making his first career start. Clemson coach Dabo Swinney named Tait Reynolds the starter after Christopher Vizzina hurt his elbow in last week’s 22-7 win over Georgia Southern.
Reynolds completed 16 of 27 passes for 178 yards in that game, and he’s still looking for his first career touchdown pass. Clemson has converted just 3 of 27 third-down tries this season, the third-worst mark in the nation. The Tigers also lost their opener to LSU, 51-10.
The Tar Heels have allowed 13 total points in wins over TCU and East Tennessee State. Neither opponent reached 180 passing yards or three yards per carry. On offense, North Carolina quarterback Billy Edwards Jr. averages 9.9 yards per pass attempt.
Clemson has won the last seven meetings, including a 38-10 win in Chapel Hill last season. But the Tigers’ offense ranks 129th in available yards percentage, and Belichick’s pass rush should keep Reynolds under pressure all afternoon.
Picks: North Carolina 23-17, North Carolina +3 ATS, Under 43.5
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Mississippi State (+4) at South Carolina: Upset Watch 9
- Total: 58.5
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 19, 4:15 p.m. ET (SEC Network)
Both teams open SEC play at 2-0, but Mississippi State has faced the tougher schedule. The Bulldogs beat Louisiana-Monroe 62-13 and then won 38-13 at Minnesota. South Carolina beat Kent State 57-0 and Towson 45-9.
Mississippi State quarterback Kamario Taylor has completed 67.9% of his passes for 581 yards, seven touchdowns and no interceptions. He has also run for 145 yards. The Bulldogs average 8.4 yards per play, fourth in the nation, and they converted every third- and fourth-down try against Minnesota.
South Carolina hasn’t allowed a touchdown this season, and its offense ranks third nationally in success rate. Gamecocks quarterback LaNorris Sellers leads a roster that also features receiver Nyck Harbor and edge rusher Dylan Stewart.
The Gamecocks have won five of the last six meetings, including a 37-30 win in 2023. However, the Bulldogs’ passing game gives them the edge in a shootout.
Picks: Mississippi State 30-29, Mississippi State +4 ATS, Over 58.5
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LSU at Ole Miss (+2.5): Upset Watch 8.5
- Total: 57.5
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 19, 7:30 p.m. ET (ABC)
LSU coach Lane Kiffin returns to Oxford after he left Ole Miss for Baton Rouge following the 2025 regular season. No. 7 LSU and No. 8 Ole Miss both enter 2-0, but the Tigers carry questions about quarterback Sam Leavitt.
LSU listed Leavitt as doubtful Wednesday and then upgraded him to questionable Thursday. He has scored seven touchdowns in wins over Clemson and Louisiana Tech, but he threw three interceptions against Louisiana Tech. Husan Longstreet and Landen Clark are his primary backups if he can’t play.
The LSU defense ranks third nationally in available yards percentage allowed and fourth in expected points added per pass allowed. Still, Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss threw for 336 yards and three touchdowns in a 41-38 win over Louisville. Rebels running back Kewan Lacy has scored a rushing touchdown in 11 straight games.
Ole Miss won the last two meetings in Oxford, 55-49 in 2023 and 24-19 last season. The Rebels rank 110th in expected points added per rush allowed, so LSU should run the ball. Still, Chambliss and a hostile crowd push Ole Miss coach Pete Golding’s team past Kiffin.
Picks: Ole Miss 20-17, Ole Miss +2.5 ATS, Under 57.5
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Virginia Tech (-3) at Maryland: Upset Watch 9
- Total: 53.5
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 19, 7:30 p.m. ET (FS1)
Virginia Tech coach James Franklin faces Maryland coach Mike Locksley for the first time since their heated handshake after Penn State’s 44-7 win in 2024. Franklin went 9-2 against Maryland with the Nittany Lions.
Hokies quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer followed Franklin from Penn State. He has completed 48 of 62 passes for 551 yards and four touchdowns without an interception. Tight end Luke Reynolds, another Penn State transfer, has 13 catches for 158 yards and three scores.
Maryland owns a 20-game nonconference winning streak, the longest in the FBS. Terrapins quarterback Malik Washington completed 34 of 41 passes for 347 yards against UConn, and Maryland leads the Big Ten with 10 sacks. That pass rush matters because Old Dominion sacked Grunkemeyer four times last week and held Virginia Tech’s running backs to 90 yards on 25 carries.
The Hokies’ defense ranks 20th in available yards percentage allowed and 13th in expected points added per early-down play. That unit slows Washington enough for the Hokies to win in College Park.
Picks: Virginia Tech 30-21, Virginia Tech -3 ATS, Under 53.5
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Colorado at Northwestern (-3.5): Upset Watch 6
- Total: 47.5
- Kickoff: Saturday, September 19, 7:30 p.m. ET (FOX)
Northwestern had two weeks to prepare for Colorado after it beat South Dakota State 34-18 on September 5. Northwestern offensive coordinator Chip Kelly’s up-tempo offense gained 497 yards in that game, with more than 200 yards both passing and rushing.
Colorado is 2-0 after a 14-13 win at Georgia Tech and a 52-21 win over Weber State. Buffaloes quarterback Julian Lewis threw for 366 yards and four touchdowns against Weber State after he passed for 124 yards in the opener.
Weather could shape the game. “Maybe inclement weather in Northwestern, but we are up for the challenge,” Colorado coach Deion Sanders said during a Tuesday press conference. A wet field favors Northwestern’s physical run game over Colorado’s deep passing attack, and the Buffaloes ranked 124th nationally in offensive success rate last season.
Northwestern quarterback Aidan Chiles and the extra week of preparation give the Wildcats the advantage at home.
Picks: Northwestern 28-19, Northwestern -3.5 ATS, Under 47.5
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