2026 Week 3 Preview: SMU Mustangs @ Louisville Cardinals
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Game notes
- Time and date: Saturday, September 19 at 3:30 p.m. ET
- Network: ESPN2
- Location: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium — Louisville, KY
- Spread: Louisville (-1.5)
- Over/under: 58.5
- All-time series: SMU leads, 4-0
- Last meeting: SMU 38, Louisville 6 — November 22, 2025
- Current streak: SMU, 4 (1983-25)
Setting the scene
Is this the most important ACC game of the year? When you have a 17-team conference, it’s all about scheduling. Every tiebreaker among the top teams in this conference is paramount. Just ask Duke, which won a 5-team tiebreaker last season and ultimately won the ACC because of it.
Based on the current AP Poll, there are only two ranked ACC matchups for the remainder of the season, and No. 23 Louisville vs. No. 16 SMU is one of them.
This matchup features two of the most explosive offenses in college football, and there will be no shortage of skill position talent on the field at any time. SMU has dominated the series 4-0, including two-straight wins as members of the ACC. But Louisville claims homefield advantage, looking to start ACC play with a statement.
SMU Mustangs outlook
SMU (2-0, 1-0 ACC) is fully submerged in its favorite part of the season — ACC play. The Mustangs joined the conference in 2024 and immediately became the standard of the league. Since 2024, they own the ACC’s best record in conference games at 15-2 — and the two losses were by a combined four points, both decided on last-second field goal attempts.
Despite SMU’s recent run of success, the team has struggled in its early games. The Mustangs started 2-2 in 2023 before finishing 11-3, started 1-1 in 2024 before finishing 11-3, and started 2-2 in 2025 before finishing 9-4. SMU nearly squandered its opener with self-inflicted mistakes. They committed four turnovers at Florida State and several costly penalties, but the Mustangs’ talent proved too great for the Seminoles to overcome, and SMU won 27-24 on a late field goal.
Through two games, SMU is seventh in total offense, and quarterback Kevin Jennings is responsible for that 566 yards per game output. Head coach Rhett Lashlee launched a Heisman Trophy campaign for the third-year starter, who is currently seventh in the country with 767 passing yards, averaging an FBS-best 14.8 yards per attempt. Jennings efficiency has been tremendous thus far, but limiting interceptions will be key in guiding the Mustangs back to the ACC Championship Game. He tied for third in the FBS with 13 interceptions last season and threw two in the opener. If the turnovers are avoided, SMU’s offense can be as lethal as any in the country.
Jennings is healthier this year which allows him to be a more effective runner. SMU will support him with the running back trio of Kendrick Raphael, Dramekco Green, and Derrick McFall, who have broken off several big gains so far in 2026. They’re anchored by one of the league’s better offensive lines, headlined by All-ACC tackle PJ Williams, a violent blocker who has only allowed four sacks in 44 career starts.
The Mustangs already have four 100-yard receivers on the season in Yannick Smith, Jalen Hale, Jalen Cooper, and Yamir Knight. The first three average at least 22 yards per game, and SMU takes as many deep shots as any team in the country. This offense ranks atop the FBS in 30-yard completions (11), 40-yard completions (7), and 50-yard completions (5). Even tight end Randy Pittman Jr. can thrive as a vertical threat in this loaded receiving corps.
SMU still needs to progress defensively, specifically at containing the run game. Florida State remained competitive in the opener thanks to 199 team rushing yards, and like the Seminoles, Louisville will also present a mobile quarterback in this conference matchup. SMU’s new front — which frequently rotates bodies — is still meshing together. Defensive ends Aakil Washington and Ira Singleton IV are among the most essential Mustangs on Saturday, considering their role in setting the edge against Louisville’s high-powered rushing attack.
The Mustangs surrendered the second-most passing yards per game in the country last fall, but aerial defense has been a strength of SMU through two games. Opponents are managing just 148 passing yards per game on a 52.5 completion rate, and Florida State’s First Team All-ACC receiver Duce Robinson was limited to two catches for 25 yards against this revamped secondary. Safeties Jimmy Wyrick and Tyren Polley have been among the standouts, combining for 22 tackles and 2.5 tackles for loss.
Louisville Cardinals outlook
Louisville (1-1, 0-0 ACC) nearly recorded a signature win in Nashville to kick off the season. The Cardinals went toe-to-toe with Trinidad Chambliss and Ole Miss but lost on a clock-expiring field goal. Two weeks later, Jeff Brohm’s team gets another shot at a statement victory against a ranked opponent. This time, it counts for the conference standings.
The Cardinals are known for their strong Septembers under Brohm. They’ve won three-straight ACC openers and had overall starts of 7-1 in 2025, 3-0 in 2024, and 10-1 in 2023. SMU is an obstacle the program hasn’t overcome yet, but Louisville was severely shorthanded in last season’s 38-6 loss in Dallas. In fact, that is the Cardinals only loss by more than three points in their last 21 games and only multi-score defeat in their last 28.
Louisville is renowned for offensive skill position stars, but this might be Brohm’s most explosive offense yet. The Cardinals rank first in the country with three 60-yard gains through the air. And the run game is headlined by the home-run playmaking duo of Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown, who averaged a respective 8.8 (first in FBS) and 7.3 yards per carry in 2025. Both running backs are still waiting to take off in 2026, but their potential is clear from last year’s film.
Surprisingly, the team’s leading rusher is quarterback Lincoln Kienholz. The Ohio State transfer has dazzled with his legs, picking up 111 rushing yards and three touchdowns in his first two collegiate starts. But he isn’t a glorified running back. Instead, Kienholz has been the true definition of a dual-threat quarterback, coming off consecutive 300-yard passing performances and delivering four touchdown strikes without an interception.
Louisville’s running back room stole headlines entering the season, but it’s been the Cardinals’ receiving corps inflicting the most damage on the field. Tre Richardson leads the bunch with 11 receptions for 181 yards, while Lawayne McCoy adds 164 yards and two touchdowns on five receptions. Even tight end Jaleel Skinner is stretching the field vertically, and the 6’5”, 230-pounder is well on his way to a career season after producing 137 yards and a touchdown in the first two weeks. Like SMU, the explosiveness is off the charts, and each of the Cardinals’ top four receivers averages at least 16 yards per catch.
Defensive end Clev Lubin is the heart of Louisville’s defense. Last season, the All-ACC selection registered 8.5 sacks and 13.5 tackles for loss as one of the most disruptive pass rushers in the conference. That disruption has translated to his senior season, where he has already forced a pair of fumbles. Another veteran Cardinal that can counter SMU’s potent offense is Stanquan Clark. The middle linebacker operates as one of the top run-stoppers on the team, while also having an interception and three pass breakups to his name.
Louisville succeeded against the run in the Ole Miss game, but the Cardinals were beat over the top on several occasions. Louisville needed more pressure to prevent the Rebels from a 336-yard passing explosion, as it managed zero sacks in the narrow defeat. The Cardinals need another pass rusher besides Lubin to step up, considering they are tied for last in the FBS with one sack on the season.
Prediction
Lane Kiffin’s anticipated return to Ole Miss will be the featured event, but this high-stakes ACC showdown could easily be the most exciting matchup of Week 3.
These offenses are difficult to stop when rolling. SMU ranks first nationally in 50-yard gains, while Louisville checks in at third. Kevin Jennings and Lincoln Kienholz are both proven dual-threat quarterbacks with a knack for extending plays and delivering difficult throws. And neither is afraid to let it fly. Both teams feature capabel running backs and deep receiving corps, and there’s not one particular player defenses must key on.
The separation between these teams should be minimal. Louisville has the luxury of operating with homefield advantage, and both SMU conference losses since 2024 transpired on the road. And in a game this close, kicking will prove monumental. Early returns have shown the Cardinals to have the stronger kicking game this year with Carson Hilbert draining 4-of-4 attempts, including two beyond 40 yards against Ole Miss.
In a game that will feature countless long touchdowns and nearly 1,000 yards of total offense, that might be the difference.
Prediction: Louisville 38, SMU 35
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