Jumbo Package: Alabama football vs Florida State previews and predictions
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Happy Friday, everyone. As you well know, Alabama hosts Florida State tomorrow. Your previews, starting with our own Brent Taylor in his friendly Q&A with Tomahawk Nation:
I never thought Alabama would lose like they did a year ago, but I’ll admit the Gus Malzahn factor had me nervous for months leading up to that game. With Gus gone, there’s very little that I’m particularly nervous about. I think that Alabama’s passing game with a young Keelon Russell at QB is still a work in progress, and if Russell self-destructs again like he did in the first half against Kentucky, then that can ruin any game – and I like Ashton Daniels’ scrambling enough to think they can score a few times.
Overall, though, I think it’s a pretty low chance that happens. I like something like 35-16.
Florida State won’t be a shock to Alabama in 2026. Whether it’s a dual-threat quarterback in Daniels and the return of Ousmane Kromah, or a handful of players returning from the Seminoles’ defense from a year ago, Alabama knows what to expect. DeBoer said so on “Hey Coach,” expecting a fast start, one that sets the tone through four quarters against Florida State. Paired with an elite rush defense and an offense that has been consistently explosive even through growing pains, Alabama should leave Bryant-Denny Stadium incredibly satisfied Saturday afternoon.
Prediction: No. 10 Alabama 42, Florida State 14
Florida State played a quality SMU team close in Week 1, but don’t be deceived. FSU won the turnover battle 4-1 and still couldn’t win the game. Even if Alabama coughs it up as much as SMU did, the Crimson Tide proved last week at Kentucky that they can get past turnovers and still pull away to beat a quality opponent. This Bama defense is looking strong, and the run game is improved over last year. That takes the pressure off young starting quarterback Keelon Russell, who should be able to settle in and guide the Tide to a convincing revenge victory following last year’s loss at FSU. Pick: Alabama -19.5
It’s not like there’s a massive revenge factor here – losing to Florida State wouldn’t be like dropping a big game to Auburn, or anything – but Alabama certainly will see this game as a measuring stick.
New year, new talent, new team, and with a strong performance on both sides of the ball, it’ll show that this version needs to be taken seriously.
Alabama 37, Florida State 13
So what’s the best-case scenario for Florida State in Week 3?
Another win over Alabama probably isn’t changing any hearts and minds. Before Week 1’s matchup against SMU, fans were chanting “We want Jimbo,” begging for the return of a coach who betrayed them back in 2017. Seems doubtful Ole Miss fans will ever be chanting for Kiffin — no matter how bad things get in Oxford down the road. But that’s where we are at with Florida State. Anything seems better than the current mess. (Well, maybe not Willie Taggart. At least Norvell doesn’t have his players wearing turnover backpacks.)
Instead, odds are Florida State will lose to Alabama, and then the end seems inevitable. Central Arkansas is next, followed by three straight ranked foes — Virginia, Louisville and Miami.
The writing is on the wall, and it reads: “Send help.”
Is there a bigger revenge spot on the card this week or even this season? Kalen DeBoer and the Tide had to fight perception all season long last year after dropping the opener to the Seminoles, and it almost cost them a spot in the College Football Playoff. A good portion of the Tide players were in the game and will be extra motivated to pay them back. The Tide are coming off a convincing win over Kentucky where they dominated the second half, topping 40 points for the second straight week. Florida State fired the athletic director this week and all signs pointing to a poor showing here could be the nail in the proverbial coffin for Mike Norvell in Tallahassee. Even with FSU coming off a bye, they don’t have the horses in the barn to compete here. I don’t see Alabama letting up here at all. All gas, no brakes for four quarters in Tuscaloosa.
The Tide had some shaky moments toward the start of Wommack’s tenure. But last season, Alabama’s defense was undeniably the team’s strength, and that has stretched into 2026 as well.
Up front, Southern Cal transfer Devon Thompkins came on strong in the Kentucky game, and Yhonzae Pierre has continued to look strong in the pass rush. Luke Metz had a pick six as one of the Tide’s new starting linebackers against UK and Caleb Woodson has been as good as expected after transferring in from Virginia Tech.
And the secondary is just as good as it was supposed to be with all the returning talent from last year. Truly, the sky is the limit for Wommack’s unit this season.
A struggling Florida State should really be no match for UA. Can the defense pitch a shutout?
Matt Stahl wrote that last one, and his question is fair. Florida State’s administration essentially sent the world a message that Mike Norvell is a dead man walking when they fired the athletic director that hired him this week. Norvell’s team showed plenty of quit last season after springing the Alabama upset in the opener. This season, they managed a whopping 14-10 halftime lead against New Mexico State before winning by 17, then managed to lose at home to SMU despite finishing +3 in turnovers.
In that SMU game, they were nearly doubled up in total yardage. Their defense allowed an absurd 8.7 yards per play. They slowed neither the run nor the pass, while the FSU offense managed a putrid 4.7 per play. That game was about as fluky as it gets, as every metric other than turnovers suggests a three touchdown whipping.
Psychologically, you have an Alabama team that just got a big win on the road, but the offense still has plenty to work on. Freshman QB Keelon Russell made too many mistakes and seems to be a grinder. I fully expect him to have a big game against one of the worst defenses in the ACC, and Alabama’s run game should take another step as well. On the other side of the ball, Ashton Daniels simply doesn’t have the ability to threaten this defense through the air, and Alabama’s run defense has been stout.
Kalen DeBoer has played down the revenge angle, but you can bet that some of the leaders on this team remember that game last season and want to wash the taste from their mouths. An ascending Alabama squad is about to beat the brakes off of Florida State, giving the same administration ample ammunition to fire Norvell before ACC play begins in earnest.
I’ve got Alabama 51-13, and only because the third string defense gives up a garbage time touchdown. This one is going to be a bloodbath.
Of course, that is merely my opinion. Share yours in the comments.
It’s a relatively weak slate this week, as Lane Kiffin’s return to Oxford offers about the only other truly intriguing matchup. Kiffin has returned to his full man-baby state.
LSU head coach Lane Kiffin has a history of playing games with the injury report, all within the confines of the rules of course. But some things never change, according to the ESPN insider.
“Well, Pat, I know how much you enjoy quagmires and conundrums. I think we’re going to end up filing this one under chicanery,” Thamel said on The Pat McAfee Show. “Lane Kiffin has a long and colorful history of taking liberties on injury reports, and I do not doubt, and in fact I know that Sam Leavitt was limited in practice yesterday, but there’s still a widespread expectation that Sam Leavitt will start in play on on Saturday night in in in Oxford.
As a reminder, injury reporting in the SEC only started a couple of years ago, and is fully managed by the conference. Manipulation calls for a progressive fine for the institution, and the commissioner has authority to suspend offending coaches. Kiffin is intentionally challenging the SEC’s self-governance again, essentially throwing a tantrum over the NFL players flap.
Maybe ChatGPT told him it was OK.
As LSU and the SEC found themselves locked in an unprecedented game of legal chicken over coach Lane Kiffin’s plan to roster two former NFL players this season, Kiffin routinely reached out to his friend, attorney Tom Mars, for legal advice.
When Mars urged Kiffin to back down, the LSU coach texted him screenshots of legal opinions from an unlikely source.
ChatGPT.
“Usually, when I would express an opinion about what LSU was doing, Lane would reply with a screenshot from ChatGPT that supported LSU’s position, which was almost always wrong,” Mars said. “Lane ignored most of my unsolicited advice, but I don’t think he’ll be using ChatGPT anymore for legal advice.”
Imagine using a chat bot to debate a lawyer who is near legendary for making the NCAA bend the knee. Fortunately, Alabama was smart enough to stay away from Lane when Saban retired.
“(Alabama coach) Saban retired (in 2024) on Wednesday and Thursday afternoon after show started, Kiffin texted me saying he had to speak,” Finebaum shared Thursday when asked about the timeline. “At the time, speculation was on (current Alabama coach Kalen) DeBoer and (current Florida State coach Mike) Norvell.
“I called him during the next break and asked, ‘What do you want me to do?’ Afterall, Jimmy Sexton was his agent. He said, ‘Go on air and say I will take job. I turned down Auburn for this.’”
Finebaum paused, though.
“I mentioned I had been told by sources Saban was blocking him,” Finebaum said. “He didn’t respond and just added – if I could go on air and get some momentum – he might have a chance. Then, I went back on air.”
The SEC Network analyst did what he was asked with a caveat.
“I mentioned he would take the job if it were offered, but I added that I thought it was unlikely he get it,” Finebaum added.
Kiffin, Finebaum said, knew Saban was his biggest obstacle, and he wasn’t going to overcome the former Alabama coach.
Maybe he will bring a national championship to LSU, but it’s just as likely that he exits in some uncermonious fashion as he has everywhere else.
For this week, he’s getting the attention he so craves.
That’s about it for today. Have a great weekend.
Roll Tide.
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