Texas Tech vs Houston Picks, Odds, Parlay for College Football Week 3

NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...

The No. 13 Texas Tech Red Raiders take on the No. 22 Houston Cougars in a Big 12 college football battle on Friday, Sept. 18.

The Red Raiders enter as -7.5 favorites, while the Cougars are +7.5 on the spread with a moneyline price of +260. The over/under sits at 52.5 total points.

I came through with a 2-leg same-game parlay for Friday’s matchup, including a play on the moneyline and an over/under pick. When put together, it pays out at just over +500.

Read on for my Texas Tech vs. Houston picks and college football parlay for Friday, September 18.

Texas Tech vs Houston Odds

I’ve been severely underwhelmed with Texas Tech over the first few weeks of the season.

The Red Raiders failed to cover against Abilene Christian in Week 1 (a 23-point win as 45.5-point favorites), and then almost lost outright to Oregon State in Week 2 (an 11-point win as 26-point favorites, but the game was much closer than the box score indicates).

In fact, both teams have played the Beavers early in the season. Houston’s 33-20 victory was far more convincing.

Will Hammond has been fine at quarterback for Texas Tech, but the Raiders have really struggled to run the rock (-0.78 EPA Per Rush, 131st nationally). That could be a huge problem against a very stingy Houston front seven.

Meanwhile, I’m quite bullish on the Houston offense, which has a fifth-year starter at quarterback in Conner Weigman, reliable skill-position weapons in Amare Thomas and Mehki Hughes, and over 5,500 snaps of experience on the offensive line.

This is a solid spot to bet the underdog at a large plus-money price — I actually think Houston might be the better team in this matchup, and there are very few coaches I trust more than Willie Fritz.

While Texas Tech’s offense has underwhelmed over the past two weeks, their defense and special teams have lived up to expectations.

The Red Raiders rank first nationally in opponent starting field position (14-yard line) and fourth in early-down EPA Per Play allowed (-0.43).

Meanwhile, Houston’s defense and special teams units have also played quite well; the Cougars are very well coached under Fritz.

I also think we could see some regression in this matchup. Texas Tech ranks 15th nationally in late-down Success Rate (67%), while Houston ranks 11th in the same stat (69%). Those two marks should regress toward the national average as the season progresses.

Both of these teams like to play at a fairly quick tempo, but I truly believe both defenses are further ahead than both offenses at this point in the season.

Give me a low-scoring, high-variance rock fight where the road dog pulls out a miracle win.

More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos