USC vs Rutgers Prediction, Pick, College Football Odds for Saturday, Sept. 19

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The USC Trojans take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights in Piscataway, NJ. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on CBS.

USC is favored by -23.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2800. The total is set at 59.5 points.

Here’s my USC vs. Rutgers prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 19.

My Rutgers vs. USC best bet is on the over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.

USC vs Rutgers Odds

• USC vs Rutgers point spread: USC -23.5 (-118), Rutgers +23.5 (-102)
• USC vs Rutgers over/under: 59.5 (-108o / -110u)
• USC vs Rutgers moneyline: USC -2800, Rutgers +1300

Head coach Lincoln Riley was clear in a Monday press conference that the youth of his roster is directly correlated with the average number of penalties. The Trojans rang up eight flags for 78 yards in their latest victory against Louisiana.

The Trojans only covered once in three non-conference games against Group of Six teams, and now it has a cross-country travel spot on their hands.

The road has been unkind to Riley since Big Ten expansion, losing four of the last five games when crossing at least two time zones. The lone victory came early in 2025 against a struggling Purdue team, and USC failed to cover that spot.

USC is led by senior Jayden Maiava, who’s in his third season under Riley. The quarterback already has a 10-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, with an offensive line that has allowed just 12 pressures.

Maiava is lacking in big-time throw rate through three games, as it’s currently half of his 2025 number at 3.4%.

The new components to the offense this season are the faces in the wide receiver room, as Maiava’s top three targets are all in their freshman seasons.

Slot Trent Mosley, along with wideouts Kayden Dixon-Wyatt and Mark Bowman, have collected 45 targets for eight touchdowns thus far. Mosley has been elite, with 13 catches and a yards per route run greater than four. He also provides scores on special teams .

New defensive coordinator Gary Patterson has improved and regressed in a number of areas for the Trojans. USC currently grades as the 19th-best tackling team in FBS, missing just 21 tackles through three games.

However, the Trojans have struggled against the pass, ranking 111th in success rate. Explosives have been allowed on numerous opponent drives, as both Louisiana and San Jose State doubled the national average in explosive drives.

The defense has also found a dry spell in Havoc, ranking 73rd in tackles for loss per game while recording just a single pass breakup .

No power-four team has had a tougher start than Rutgers. Head coach Greg Schiano communicated at Big Ten Media Days that the defense falls on his shoulders, but two losses through two games suggest there’s been no progress.

The Scarlett Knights notched a 0% post-game win expectancy in a loss to UMass and 26% in a loss to Boston College .

AJ Surace took over for Dylan Lonergan at quarterback against Boston College, committing four interceptions along with four turnover-worthy plays.

The offense ranks near-last in Havoc allowed, a metric that gathers tackles for loss, interceptions and fumbles. When the Scarlet Knights have produced a scoring drive, the average points are also near-last of any FBS teams.

Rutgers has crossed the opponent 40-yard line 11 times this season, averaging just 2.5 points per trip.

There’s been no improvement on defense, with the team ranking outside the top 100 in every advanced statistical category. The Scarlet Knights are near-last in both Havoc and opponent quality drives, ranking 117th or worse in rush and pass EPA allowed.

Third downs have been a contributor to the losses, as they’re ranked 121st in both conversion rate and average distance to gain.

The three leading tacklers on the team are all in the secondary, as Latrell Noel, Bradlee Jones and Jesse Ofurie each have 10 through two games.

USC has had a treacherous time traveling East in Big Ten play, but the defensive nature of both these teams suggests that there will be no lack of points.

Maiava has dominated every coverage look with a trio of freshman wide receivers. That’s an element that should play against a Rutgers defense that’s bottom 20 in pass explosives allowed.

The Trojans are 28th in finishing drives, and Rutgers’ bottom-25 opponent finishing drives rank suggests USC is in for touchdowns, not field goals.

The bigger question is Rutgers ‘ability to score to contribute to a total or potentially cover the spread. The Action Network Power Ratings list USC as a 24.5-point favorite, in line with the current market.

The number that needs investment comes on the total, as early projections based on scoring, tempo and EPA suggest this game lands in the 60s.

Surprisingly, Rutgers is 20th in pass EPA. Surace has had success throwing over 20 yards, generating a touchdown and two big-time throws .

Expect Rutgers to let Surace air the ball out once a Trojans lead gets over two scores.

While there’s no expectation that Rutgers’ poor tackling and coverage defense can stop USC, the Scarlet Knights will have a few scores of their own against a Patterson defense that ranks outside the top 100 in opponent passing success rate.

Pick: Over 59.5 or Better

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