New Mexico vs Oklahoma Prediction, Pick, College Football Odds for Saturday, Sept. 19

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The New Mexico Lobos take on the Oklahoma Sooners in Norman, OK. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

Oklahoma is favored by -21.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -3500. The total is set at 46.5 points.

Here’s my New Mexico vs. Oklahoma prediction and college football pick for Saturday, September 19, 2026.

My Oklahoma vs. New Mexico best bet is on a parlay. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page. For more picks, be sure to download the Action Network app.

New Mexico vs Oklahoma Odds

• New Mexico vs Oklahoma point spread: Oklahoma -21.5 (-110), New Mexico +21.5 (-110)
• New Mexico vs Oklahoma over/under: 46.5 (-110o / -110u)
• New Mexico vs Oklahoma moneyline: New Mexico +1280, Oklahoma -3500

After a nine-win debut, Jason Eck’s Lobos may be in store for a special season. Through its first two games, New Mexico has outscored its opponents 108-14 and is up to 54th in SP+ this week, currently the second-highest Group of Six team.

Dating back to last season, New Mexico has won nine straight home games, its longest streak in 91 years. Additionally, UNM’s 108 points are the most in back-to-back games by any Mountain West team in league history.

The Lobos have played two quarterbacks (Toa Fa’avae and Luke Moga) in each of their first two games, but their running game has paced the offense.

Their offense has ran for 200+ yards and three rushing touchdowns or more in each of their first two games. Seven different Lobos have scored on the ground, but running back Scottre Humphrey leads the way with 174 yards and three touchdowns.

Staying in manageable third down situations to keep the running game a priority may be a challenge against a Brent Venables defense. However, the Lobos may not be overmatched when they are on defense in this one.

They have allowed just 304 yards of total offense and forced eight turnovers through two games. Five different defenders have interceptions already while senior defensive end Brett Karhu leads the way with three sacks and a forced fumble.

New Mexico currently ranks third in success rate and second in havoc. Playing at Oklahoma is certainly a different task than Central Michigan or Mercyhurst. However, the Lobos will not be intimidated playing at a Power 4 opponent, having upset UCLA last season.

Last season, Oklahoma got off to a 4-0 start and quarterback John Mateer was a September Heisman favorite after wins over Michigan and Auburn. However, Mateer broke his right thumb against Auburn when his hand hit an Auburn defender.

While he only missed one game, Mateer and the Sooners’ offense were never the same as they failed to score 30 points for the rest of the season. A dominant defense carried the Sooners to a CFP appearance last season, but this season was supposed to be different.

I still had questions about Oklahoma’s offense even with a healthy Mateer and they did very little to answer them in Ann Arbor.

The Sooners were held to 289 yards of total offense, committed two turnovers, and Mateer barely completed over 50% of his passes in a 17-10 loss to the Wolverines. Now there are more injury concerns as well.

Virginia transfer Trell Harris will be out for the foreseeable future after suffering a lacerated liver. Somehow, he finished the game, but his absence will leave the Sooners without their second leading receiver through the first two weeks.

Sophomore Elijah Thomas appears to be first in line to replace while Manny Choice and Mackenzie Alleyne should see more opportunities as well.

However, this week, there may be more emphasis on the running game. Mateer had three runs of 10 yards or more last week, but the Sooners still rank just 87th in yards per carry through their first two games.

While the Sooners’ offensive line remains a work in progress, this is one week where they will have the advantage on the line of scrimmage – particularly in comparison to their next two games.

One running back in particular who will be looking to have a big day is Lloyd Avant, who faced the Lobos last season while at Colorado State, but ran for just 36 yards on 12 carries.

With the top two ranked teams in the country on the schedule for the next two games, we will know if Oklahoma still has a viable shot at a CFP appearance very quickly. The Sooners will need to get their offense in gear very soon, but they still have a dominant defense to rely on.

Through the first two games, the Sooners rank seventh in defensive SP+, ninth in points allowed per opportunity, and 16th in havoc. Linebacker Owen Heinecke leads the unit with 17 units. He will counted on as they will be without fellow senior Kip Lewis at least for this week.

Looking at the lines for this matchup, this may be a case where the value lies with the underdog given it’s a three-touchdown favorite and there’s a total under 50 points.

Given that I like both New Mexico and the under, I’m going to combine them in a two-leg parlay, which will also help us get on the right side of some key numbers.

Since arriving in Albuquerque, Eck is 11-4 straight up and 9-6 against the spread. New Mexico went to Michigan last season and covered with a 17-point defeat and then hammered UCLA 35-10 in a game that also went under.

The Lobos will need to hit a few more passes this week because it will not have as much success on the ground this week. However, this is not a Bob Stoops or Lincoln Riley offense, so I don’t expect Oklahoma to run away here.

Additionally, both teams are 7-3 to the under over their past 10 games and Oklahoma is 2-0 to the under this season. A final in the range of 31-10 is both realistic and cashes this combo.

Picks: New Mexico +28.5 & Under 49.5 Parlay

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