Michigan State Lock of the Week: Week Three
NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos...
Week 2: 0-0
Overall: 0-1
Yes, if you're reading this and wondering why the heck my Lock of the Week went 0-0 last week, that's a fair question.
The simple answer?
I forgot to write my Lock of the Week article.
That's on me.
After predicting Chrishon McCray to go under 54.5 receiving yards in Week 1 only for him to finish with 69 yards, I don't think too many people missed the article anyway.
But I'm back, and this time I've got my wits about me.
Nothing wrong with taking an early loss to get your mind right, which is exactly what we're going to do here.
I'm back for Week 3 with not just one, but two Locks of the Week to make up for missing Week 2.
Lock No. 1: CJ Carr Under 250.5 Passing Yards
This one might scare a lot of people.
Taking an under is scary. In fact, I lost my only under of the season so far, and that came in this very article back in Week 1.
But I'm not afraid to go back to the well.
This time, I'm putting my money on a Michigan State defense that is about to announce itself to the world.
With a 60% or higher chance of rain in the forecast from kickoff through the night, I have a hard time believing this turns into a high-flying offensive showcase where Notre Dame moves the ball at will against a Michigan State defense that should thrive in unfavorable conditions.
Carr is averaging just 246 passing yards per game, and those numbers have come against Rice and Wisconsin.
Against Wisconsin in Week 1, Notre Dame scored 41 points, yet Carr still finished with only 253 passing yards.
There's no denying Carr is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and Notre Dame's offense is loaded with talent.
But asking him to navigate the rain, deal with a constant blitzing attack from Joe Rossi's defense and consistently deliver accurate passes with a wet football all night is a completely different challenge.
Carr will hit some chunk plays. That's going to happen.
But I believe this game will lean much more heavily toward the running game, especially with the weather potentially playing a major factor.
Give me CJ Carr under 250.5 passing yards.
Lock No. 2: Cam Edwards 45+ Rushing Yards
What was I just saying about CJ Carr?
This game could turn into a mud bowl, with both teams trying to ground and pound their way through the night until somebody finally makes a mistake.
We already know the plan for Pat Fitzgerald, Nick Sheridan and the Michigan State offense.
Give the ball to Cam Edwards and let the magic happen.
Edwards leads the Big Ten with 250 rushing yards through two games, yet Vegas is essentially asking us to believe that Notre Dame's defense will hold a running back averaging 24 carries per game to fewer than 45 yards.
Edwards is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and already has three touchdowns this season. He's been the full-on bell cow for Michigan State through the first two games.
Now, apparently, he's going to look like a high schooler trying to play football against Notre Dame.
That's a load of you-know-what.
If Michigan State is going to have any chance of controlling this game, Edwards is going to get fed.
And fed often.
The weather only strengthens that belief.
If the rain comes down throughout the game, Fitzgerald and Sheridan aren't suddenly going to abandon the identity they've established. They're going to put the ball in their best running back's hands and make Notre Dame stop him.
This is my favorite Lock of the Week.
I could easily see Edwards finishing somewhere around 24 carries, 80 yards and a touchdown.
So I'm smashing Cam Edwards 45+ rushing yards.
More at NCAAF College Football News, Photos, Stats, Scores, Schedule & Videos