College football's hottest seats: One coach's fate may already be sealed
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Some fates are predestined. After all, there's a reason the so-called "Lane Kiffin Rule" found its way into the nearly 200-page Protect College Sports Act. It wasn't exactly a pork-barrel project.
In this space, we won't bury our heads in the sand. The reality is heads inevitably will roll during the college football season.
The coaching carousel stops for no one. It's as inevitable as the cloud of drama that seems to follow Lane Kiffin like a coonhound on a bayou trail.
The expectation is this coaching cycle will be more subdued than the chaos of 2025-26. Still, coaches will be fired, others hired and a few may decide it's finally time to retire.
Some are far closer to the end of their tenure than others.
So with temperatures rising and pressure mounting, here's USA TODAY Sports' latest Heat Check: Backside Discomfort.
Dave Doeren, NC State
There's been an amusing meme making the rounds on social media the past two weeks: Every team in college football history that led when the clock hit zero had won the game. Then Western Michigan-Michigan happened, sparking plenty of controversy and putting that theory to the test.
Yet even that bizarre finish may not top what unfolded Saturday afternoon in Nashville.
NC State somehow managed to lose in a fashion that was arguably even stranger, certainly more self-inflicted and unquestionably overcoached. Holding a 31-28 lead with six seconds remaining, Wolfpack coaches instructed NFL Draft prospect CJ Bailey to run around in his own end zone and bleed out the clock. Instead, Bailey fumbled, Vanderbilt recovered for a touchdown, and the Commodores escaped with a win despite facing a 99.99% chance of defeat before the snap.
And with that, fate may have finally arrived for Doeren in Raleigh.
Beyond Saturday's inexcusable collapse, the larger trend is difficult to ignore. Since the start of the 2024 season, Doeren has just eight victories against Power Four opponents. During that same span, the Wolfpack have suffered losses by 41, 34, 29, 26, 24, 19, 12 and 10 points, including this year's 26-point setback against ACC rival Virginia.
The only thing cooling the pressure is the price tag. NC State would owe Doeren nearly $21 million if it fired him without cause, unless the coach opted for retirement and a negotiated settlement.
Bill Belichick, North Carolina
Pack the pipe and light the match. Tobacco Road football is a smoldering mess, save for Manny Diaz's success at Duke.
At some point, the proverbial juice simply isn't worth the squeeze with Bill Belichick.
His hiring divided the administration and much of the campus from the start. The 2025 season was a disaster, and the university has endured a series of self-inflicted embarrassments. Two of Belichick's most prominent hires, general manager Michael Lombardi and defensive coordinator Stephen Belichick, have already exited amid internal scrutiny and, more importantly, external investigations.
Saturday only added to the concerns. North Carolina squandered a sizable lead at Clemson, and the losses are unlikely to stop there. Following an open date, the Tar Heels face a brutal stretch: top-five Notre Dame, a road trip to Pitt and another to rival Duke.
That shiny 2-0 start could become 2-4 in a hurry.
If it does, difficult conversations should begin. And don't be surprised if athletic director Bubba Cunningham takes a quiet "I told you so" victory lap. After all, Cunningham was close to finalizing a deal with Jon Sumrall and also engaged Army's Jeff Monken before North Carolina ultimately swung for the fences with Belichick.
Mike Norvell, Florida State
Look, it's been a nice run. It's been a deceptive run. Mostly, though, it's been an abysmal run.
It's over. The only question is when the official end arrives.
Since the conclusion of the 2023 regular season, Florida State has absorbed a 60-point bowl loss to Georgia and a 49-point regular-season beatdown at the hands of Notre Dame. The Seminoles have managed just four wins against Power conference opponents during that span.
And what has FSU accomplished since that infamous 63-3 demolition by Georgia?
A gag-inducing 8-20 record.
The problem for Florida State is that firing Mike Norvell won't come cheap. Thanks in part to a contract renegotiated after the outlier success of 2023, Norvell is owed a staggering $51.8 million buyout, according to terms reviewed by USA TODAY Sports.
Norvell's deal effectively pays him 85 cents on every remaining dollar if Florida State decides to move on.
In other words, the Seminoles may know where this is headed. The challenge is figuring out when they can afford to get there.
Greg Schiano, Rutgers
He isn't No. 1 on this initial list for one simple reason: Rutgers showed more fight in its loss to undefeated, nationally ranked USC than it did in its season-opening stumble against payday opponent UMass.
Yes, that's where things stand in Greg Schiano's second act in Piscataway.
While Rutgers has raised tuition, imposed mandatory fees and approved more than $6 million in additional NIL funding, the on-field return has been underwhelming. Since returning before the 2020 season, Schiano has posted a 31-44 record.
More alarming is the lack of progress against meaningful competition. Rutgers has just 20 wins against Power Four opponents this entire decade. This entire decade.
For that, the university pays Schiano more than $7 million annually.
And even that total requires some context. A disproportionate share of those victories have come against Indiana before Curt Cignetti's arrival, Maryland and Michigan State, which seems determined to find new ways to make opposing coaches look competent.
At some point, Rutgers has to ask a difficult question: Is this really the ceiling, or is it simply the cost of accepting mediocrity?
WARMING WATCH
Not making our initial list to start the 2026 season but surely not far away are the aforementioned Maryland Terps of one Mike Locksley, as well as Shane Beamer, whose South Carolina Gamecocks are perfecting the come-from-ahead loss and Clemson’s Dabo Swinney.
The carousel spins. Ultimate victims? We’re about to find out.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: College football's hottest seats: One coach's fate may already be sealed
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