College Football Best Bets: ATS Picks for Top-25 Rivalry Week Games
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Rivalry week is upon us. As the old saying goes, you can throw out the records when these teams get together. Look no further than last season’s iteration of The Game for evidence.
Even accounting for the air of unpredictability in some of these heated series, there are some sizable spreads among the top 25 teams in Week 14. Spots in conference championships and therefore the College Football Playoff are on the line this week. And what’s better than ending your rival’s postseason hopes?
Understandably, ESPN’s “College GameDay” is headed to Ann Arbor for The Game. No. 15 Michigan is almost a double-digit underdog to top-ranked Ohio State, but the Wolverines have won four in a row over the Buckeyes. A Michigan win would likely be enough to secure a CFP berth. And while a defeat wouldn’t be disqualifying for the Buckeyes, the losing streak hangs over Columbus like a dark cloud.
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Other games with playoff implications include: Texas A&M-Texas, Vanderbilt-Tennessee, Miami-Pittsburgh, UCF-BYU, LSU-Oklahoma, Ole Miss-Mississippi State, Utah-Kansas and the Iron Bowl. In some cases, both teams are pushing for a spot in the playoff, but in many of this weekend’s games there’s an underdog hoping to play spoiler.
Several of the championship scenarios across the power conferences are complicated. In some cases, it’s win and in. Other teams need some help to hope to extend their seasons. And to quote “The Dark Knight,” some teams just like to watch the world burn. Wins by Mississippi State or Auburn would certainly fall into that category.
Heading into the regular-season finale, Athlon Sports’ writers made against-the-spread picks for all the games featuring a top-25 team, and they each shared a best bet below.
(Rankings are from the latest CFP top 25.)
College Football Predictions: ATS Bets for Week 14 Top-25 Games
| Steven Lassan | Thomas Neumann | Kyle Wood | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
No. 7 Ole Miss -7.5 | @ Mississippi State | Miss. State | Ole Miss | Ole Miss |
No. 13 Utah -11.5 | @ Kansas | Utah | Utah | Utah |
No. 4 Georgia -13.5 | vs. No. 23 Georgia Tech* | GT | GT | GT |
No. 2 Indiana -28.5 | @ Purdue | IU | IU | IU |
No. 3 Texas A&M -2.5 | @ No. 16 Texas | TAMU | TAMU | TAMU |
No. 25 Arizona -1.5 | @ No. 20 Arizona State | ASU | ASU | Arizona |
No. 1 Ohio State -9.5 | @ No. 15 Michigan | Michigan | Michigan | Michigan |
No. 5 Texas Tech -23.5 | @ West Virginia | TTU | TTU | TTU |
No. 12 Miami -6.5 | @ No. 22 Pittsburgh | UM | UM | UM |
UCF | @ No. 11 BYU -17.5 | BYU | UCF | BYU |
No. 6 Oregon -6.5 | @ Washington | UW | UW | Oregon |
LSU | @ No. 8 Oklahoma -10.5 | OU | OU | OU |
No. 14 Vanderbilt | @ No. 19 Tennessee -3.5 | Vandy | Tenn. | Vandy |
Virginia Tech | @ No. 18 Virginia -8.5 | Va. Tech | Va. Tech | UVA |
No. 10 Alabama -6.5 | @ Auburn | Bama | Bama | Bama |
UCLA | @ No. 17 USC -21.5 | USC | UCLA | USC |
Charlotte | @ No. 24 Tulane -30.5 | Tulane | Tulane | Charlotte |
No. 21 SMU -13.5 | @ California | SMU | SMU | SMU |
No. 9 Notre Dame -32.5 | @ Stanford | ND | ND | ND |
Record: | 107-119-1 | 104-122-1 | 104-122-1 |
*Neutral site
Week 14 College Football Best Bets
Steven Lassan: No. 11 BYU vs. UCF — BYU -17.5
BYU is a win away from the Big 12 Championship Game and should take care of business against UCF. The Knights have lost three of their four road games by 14 points or more and nearly lost to Oklahoma State last week. I think the Cougars will be motivated to clinch a spot in Arlington and make their case to the playoff committee for an at-large spot. Expect Kalani Sitake’s team to cruise to an easy win and cover the 17.5-point spread.
Thomas Neumann: No. 2 Indiana vs. Purdue — Indiana -28.5
Fernando Mendoza and the Hoosiers already boast a 45-point win, a 50-point win and a 53-point win in Big Ten play this season. We look for coach Curt Cignetti to punch the gas pedal against the rival Boilermakers and clinch a spot in the conference title game.
Kyle Wood: No. 5 Texas Tech vs. West Virginia — Texas Tech -23.5
The Red Raiders have the best cover rate in the country, despite being favored by double digits eight times this season. With an opportunity to clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game, and likely the College Football Playoff, Texas Tech won’t leave anything to chance against an improving Mountaineers team.
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This story was originally published by Athlon Sports on Nov 26, 2025, where it first appeared in the College Football section. Add Athlon Sports as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
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