Week 4 college football betting, odds: 3 early bets to make right now

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Three weeks into the season, recency bias is driving a lot of these early numbers. One loud Saturday changes how the public sees a team, and the opening lines follow. Arkansas is laying nearly a touchdown to an unbeaten Tulsa team, the total in Morgantown keeps climbing after West Virginia and Oklahoma State each beat a ranked opponent this month, and nobody wants anything to do with Colorado after a 34-point loss. These biases are where we find value headed into Week 4.

Here are three early Week 4 college football wagers I like right now:

Tulsa at Arkansas (-6.5, 53.5)

Arkansas finally gets a break in the schedule. The Razorbacks just lost at No. 15 Utah by 33 and to No. 2 Georgia by 28, and now they get a Group of Five team at home. I understand why people see a get-right spot.

But have you looked at Tulsa? The Golden Hurricane are 3-0 for the first time since 2008, and their Week 1 win was 24-10 over an Oklahoma State team that beat No. 6 Oregon as a 23.5-point underdog a week later. Tre Lamb's defense has allowed 27 points in three games and forced six turnovers, and the offense is running for 220 yards a game behind Damari Alston and Trequan Jones. That travels.

Bet Tulsa to cover the spread at sportsbooks right now

Arkansas is the team I have questions about. The Hogs ran for 17 yards against Georgia and are averaging 75 yards per game on the ground. Ryan Silverfield is rotating KJ Jackson and AJ Hill at quarterback, and he told ESPN at halftime on Saturday that playing both was the plan all along. They've already turned it over five times, and a trip to Texas A&M is waiting next week.

We make this Arkansas by 4.4. A favorite that can't run the ball has to throw to cover, and that's a tough task against a defense that's living on takeaways. I'll take the points with the team that's playing better football right now.

Bet: Tulsa +6.5

Oklahoma State at West Virginia (-2.5, 59.5)

These are the two best stories in the Big 12.

Oklahoma State went 1-11 last year, then snapped a 21-game losing streak against FBS teams by beating No. 6 Oregon 39-31 and followed it up by putting 59 on Murray State. West Virginia just beat No. 25 Virginia 38-27 as a double-digit underdog, with Michael Hawkins Jr. accounting for all five touchdowns. Everybody saw those scores, so this total opened at 58.5 and has already been bet up to 59.5. But look at how West Virginia actually plays.

The Mountaineers are running it 54 times a game and throwing it 14 — and, no, that's not a typo. Against Virginia, Cam Cook carried 30 times, Hawkins carried 18 more, and Rich Rodriguez said afterward that the key was running it when everybody in the stadium knew it was coming. Every one of those handoffs keeps the clock moving and keeps Oklahoma State QB Drew Mestemaker on the sideline.

The defenses are better than people think, too. West Virginia held Virginia to seven points after halftime, Oklahoma State is allowing 267 yards a game and the Cowboys' only road trip so far produced 10 points at Tulsa. We make this 58.2, and I think Rodriguez is going to hand it off 50 times and dare everyone to change the channel.

Bet: Under 59.5 (-110)

Colorado at Baylor (-10, 54.5)

Deion Sanders called last week's 41-7 loss at Northwestern a "flat-out butt kicking," and I won't waste time arguing with him. Colorado turned it over three times in the first half, it's averaging more than nine penalties a game, and this spread has gone from Baylor -6.5 to -10 since it opened. I don't want either side of that. I do like the total, though.

Baylor is running 84 plays a game and throwing for 306 yards, and the Bears scored 44 and 36 points, respectively, the last two weeks with a backup quarterback. DJ Lagway has been out with an ankle injury, and all Nate Bennett did against Louisiana Tech was go 21 of 24 for 253 yards and three touchdowns. Whichever one plays, the offense is fine.

Colorado's offense isn't as bad as seven points looks, either. Julian Lewis has 658 yards and six touchdowns, and the Buffaloes put 52 on Weber State two weeks ago. If this spread is anywhere close to right, Colorado is going to be throwing from behind for most of the afternoon, and Baylor's tempo means there will be plenty of possessions to do it with. We make this total 57.6. The last time these two played, in 2024, it took a Hail Mary and overtime to settle it at 38-31.

Bet: Over 54.5 (-110)

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