Nebraska vs. Michigan State: Spread and Over/Under Prediction

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Last Week:

Michigan State +29.5 — Correct

Over 52.5 — Wrong

Season Record: 4-1-1

Michigan State opens Big Ten play Saturday afternoon when the Spartans welcome the undefeated Nebraska Cornhuskers to Spartan Stadium.

Michigan State enters the matchup at 2-1 after opening the season with victories over Toledo and Eastern Michigan before falling 27-10 to No. 3 Notre Dame in South Bend. Nebraska, meanwhile, enters at 3-0 after dominant victories over Ohio, Bowling Green and North Dakota.

The matchup will kick off at 5 p.m. ET on BTN.

Nebraska Has Yet to Face a Test Like Michigan State

There is no question Nebraska has looked impressive through three games.

The Cornhuskers have outscored their opponents by a combined 104 points and enter Saturday ranked among the nation's top teams in scoring, rushing and total offense. Nebraska is averaging 46.7 points and more than 520 total yards per game.

However, context matters.

Nebraska has not yet faced a defense with the speed and physicality Michigan State will bring to Spartan Stadium. The Spartans just held Notre Dame to 27 points, which was a season low for the Fighting Irish entering the week, and Michigan State's defense showed plenty of ability to create problems against a high-level opponent.

Nebraska's offense has been explosive, but Saturday will provide its first true Big Ten test.

The Huskers' defense has also been impressive, allowing just 11.7 points per game through three contests. That unit ranks 11th nationally in total defense and seventh in passing defense, making this a significant challenge for Michigan State's offense as well.

The Spartans Need to Establish the Run

Michigan State's path to success starts with getting back to its physical, ground-and-pound identity.

Cam Edwards has been one of the biggest pieces of that attack. Through three games, the fifth-year running back has 288 rushing yards on 60 carries, averaging 96 yards per game with three touchdowns.

Edwards was especially effective against Eastern Michigan, rushing for 152 yards and two touchdowns on 21 carries.

Notre Dame's early offensive success changed the way Michigan State had to attack last week, limiting the opportunity to establish Edwards and the running game. Against Nebraska, keeping the game manageable and staying ahead of the chains will be critical.

The Spartans will also need another strong performance from the defense.

Jordan Hall returned from injury against Notre Dame and led Michigan State with 13 tackles, giving the Spartans one of their defensive leaders back in the lineup.

Michigan State will continue monitoring its linebacker situation throughout the week. Brady Pretzlaff is dealing with an injury, while Hall's status will also be worth watching following his return against Notre Dame. Pretzlaff has already played a significant role this season after returning from last year's injury.

Those developments could influence this prediction before kickoff.

Michigan State Has Enough to Cover

The current betting line has Nebraska favored by 5.5 points, with the over/under set at 48.5 points.

Nebraska has covered the spread by at least six points in each of its three games this season, while Michigan State has covered in two of its three games and pushed in the other.

But this is a completely different test for Nebraska.

The Huskers are traveling to East Lansing for their first road game of the season, while Michigan State is coming home after getting its first real taste of Big Ten competition at Notre Dame.

The Spartans have plenty to clean up from that loss, but there were also positives to build on. Michigan State's defense showed it can compete against a high-level offense, and the Spartans should have an opportunity to lean on Edwards and their rushing attack much more heavily this week.

I expect Michigan State to come out with a chip on its shoulder.

The Spartans should be able to keep this game within striking distance throughout, and I would not be surprised if they are in position to win it late.

The combination of Michigan State's defense, home-field advantage and running game makes the 5.5 points particularly appealing.

I also expect both defenses to keep the scoring under control.

Final Prediction

Spread: Michigan State +5.5 (-110)

Over/Under: Under 48.5 (-110)

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