Navy vs UAB Prediction, Pick, College Football Odds for Friday, September 25
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The Navy Midshipmen take on the UAB Blazers in Birmingham, Ala. Kickoff is set for 7:00 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Navy is favored by -7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -278. The total is set at 51.5 points.
Here’s my Navy vs. UAB prediction and college football pick for Friday, September 25, 2026. For more college football picks and analysis, download the Action Network app today!
- Navy vs. UAB Pick: UAB +7.5
My UAB vs. Navy best bet is on the Blazers to cover as underdogs. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Navy vs UAB Odds
- Navy vs UAB point spread: Navy -7 (-110), UAB +7 (-110)
- Navy vs UAB over/under: 51.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Navy vs UAB moneyline: Navy -278, UAB +225
Navy enters this game off a rare early-season loss. Its first September regular-season loss since head coach Brian Newberry’s first season with the Midshipmen. The pass defense was shredded badly in the first half as FAU built a 31-7 halftime lead, and starting quarterback Braxton Woodson went down with a lower-leg injury early in the third quarter that will keep him on the sidelines against UAB. Jackson Gutierrez led a couple of touchdown drives while FAU was playing a relaxed, prevent-style defense with the game well in hand.
The Mids are missing the explosiveness from the last two seasons, and they’ve become very reliant on quarterback run. Navy had a couple of explosive pass plays in the second half but did go scoreless on seven of its first eight possessions, and the offensive line allowed the FAU defense to creep into the backfield regularly. A lack of rushing success in early downs also created situations where Navy had to pass on third down, and both quarterbacks struggled to execute. I will be interested to see how the offense looks coming out of the bye week with Gutierrez getting practice reps with the starting offense.
The defense was shredded against the pass against FAU as the secondary could not maintain good defensive positioning in the first half. Easton Messer created separation on two long touchdown receptions in the first quarter, and FAU quarterback Caden Veltkamp threw for over 300 yards in the first half. Navy did have success against the run, but the metrics were aided by a long snap that went over the head of FAU punter Reed Chandley, which he punted into the end zone. This resulted in a team rushing attempt for -52 yards. UAB has a much better rushing offense and should be able to have success on the ground against the Navy front in this matchup.
UAB comes in 1-2 on the season but the Blazers have looked much more competitive than what we saw last season and the team is receiving much better coaching. UAB has made it a priority to run the football but head coach Alex Mortensen talked about being more balanced in his approach this week. Ryder Burton threw the ball well in the opener and UAB receivers Ty Mims, EJ Reid and CH Smith will be able to create advantages in the passing game against this Navy defense. As long as the offensive line holds up here, UAB will move the football and have chances to score.
The defense shut out Louisiana in the second half last week and held UL-Monroe to just three points in the second half the week before. The in-game adjustments made by the coaching staff has been effective and this is going to be the fourth consecutive season UAB has seen this Navy Wing-T attack. There should be familiarity with the scheme and UAB has played much improved football on defense this year. The Blazers have allowed just 166 passing yards the last two weeks while also limiting the explosive plays. Navy is really going to have to work for everything here in this matchup on the road.
This line opened with Navy favored by 10-points with a total set at 51.5. Money has come in on UAB and the line sits at 7.5 currently. I am going to play the home dog here.
UAB has run the ball effectively this season and the Blazers have three capable running backs in Rod Robinson II, Bam McReynolds and Ja’Vin Simpkins. I would expect the ground game to set the tone which will open up Burton and the passing game to take shots against this Navy secondary. The Mids have one of the nations worst secondaries grading out at 125th nationally in pass explosives allowed and 124th in pass play success rate. UAB will have chances here to connect on the deep shots here.
The UAB defense will have a chance set the edge and force the issue here against the Navy offense who were forced to stretch running plays sideline to sideline last time out against FAU. The effectiveness of the fullback dive is not there right now for the Midshipmen and Navy has been heavily reliant on quarterback run. Gutierrez is going to face some pressure here and is going to now have to make decisions as the primary quarterback which he is not used to doing.
UAB made some really nice defensive plays last week and has been excellent on third down defensively. Navy has not converted as efficiently this year as we have seen in the past and is going to have to fight for everything here on the road. This spot is a major opportunity for UAB and I expect the best effort of the season out of the Blazers who will have a chance to win this game in the fourth quarter. Grab those points.
Pick: UAB +7.5 (Play to +7)
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